The momentum of population growth

The age distribution of a population plays an important role in determining its future trajectory of growth or decline. In a growing, youthful population, a phenomenon known as “population momentum” can be a major yet temporary driver of growth. Even if fertility in such a population drops immediately to the replacement level, the momentum generated by past growth, which is reflected in the youthful age distribution of the current population, ensures that the population will continue to grow for a few decades. An analysis of the relative weight of the four factors that drive population growth—fertility, mortality, migration and momentum—is essential for understanding population trends and their relevance for sustainable development.

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