International Dialogue on Migration No. 36

The global response to climate change and human mobility is at a crossroads and it is imperative that climate mobility assumes a paramount position on the political agenda. The direct impact of slow-onset climate changes, such as lower crop productivity, could lead to the internal climate migration of up to 216 million people by 2050, across all six regions. As noted by the 2021 Groundswell report, “it’s important to note that this projection is not cast in stone. If countries start now to reduce greenhouse gases, close development gaps, restore vital ecosystems, and help people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by up to 80 per cent – to 44 million people by 2050.” According to the World Disasters Report 2020, an estimated 200 million people per year could require humanitarian assistance by 2050 due to the combined effects of climate-related disasters and the socioeconomic impacts of climate change. Also, data from the UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2022 indicate that “If current trends continue, the number of disasters per year globally may increase to 560 per year by 2030 – a projected increase of 40% during the lifetime of the Sendai Framework.”