الزراعة والتنمية الريفية والغابات
Notes on integration
It is argued in these notes that a number of factors, together with the current problems in the world economy, tend to make integration appear less important than it really is and to reduce its chances of success, so that a clear interpretation and evaluation — not as yet available — is called for.
Interpretative summary
Latin America stands at the treshold of the 1980s as the most highly industrialized region in the Third World. Because of concern in industrial countries over the increasing competitive capacity of some developing countries in the production and export of manufactures, Latin America’s essential thrust is often perceived by those outside the region as based on its new industrial capability.
Latin America and the international monetary system: some comments and suggestions
In this paper, I intend to emphasize aspects of the present system of international economic relations in the monetary and financial area that create difficulties for an adequate insertion of Latin America in the world economy. I do not propose to make a comprehensive study of all transfers of resources between developed and developing countries.
Fiscal policy in times of crisis: macroeconomic effects of the primary surplus
Trade unions in the “South” in the era of globalization
This article examines the effects of globalization on the trade union movement in developing countries (the “South”). It concludes, first, that globalization has been asymmetrical: much further-reaching for trade in goods than for capital flows, weak for technology transfer and very limited in migratory flows. Second, it examines the role and economic repercussions of labour unions. It finds that, contrary to the orthodox view, these have little negative impact on employment but do significantly reduce wage inequalities. In view of the shift in the South since the 1980s away from development strategies based on import substitution aimed at domestic markets and towards export-oriented strategies, the final section proposes new tasks and priorities for unions that are more consistent with this strategic reorientation, both at the national and international levels as well as within firms.
From national to local economic development: theoretical issues
Deaths at sea in the Pacific Islands: Challenges and opportunities for civil registration and vital statistics systems
Accurate and reliable death statistics produced by civil registration and vital statistics systems are essential for health planning and programme evaluation. The quality of death registration data in Pacific island countries and territories remains suboptimal. Data on deaths occurring at sea are especially limited. While coastal and oceanic activities are the norm and essential to the livelihoods of Pacific island populations, such activities pose risks for accidents at sea, especially those involving small-scale vessels. In this paper, the scale of deaths at sea associated with small vessels in three Pacific island countries or territories over the period 2008-2017 is investigated using data from the health, civil registry, and police and fisheries departments, and reports produced by national statistics offices, ministries of health, the Pacific Community, the World Health Organization and media sources. Data on deaths at sea were found to be fragmented among multiple sources and missing key information on age, sex, and cause. Standardized procedures for reporting deaths and accidents at sea and harmonized data sharing between local communities and government agencies are urgently needed to improve civil registration and vital statistics systems and sea safety in the Pacific island subregion.
Human resource requirements for meeting the needs of ageing societies
While health care is accorded priority by Asian and Pacific countries in addressing the rapid ageing of their populations, only some include long-term care as part of a continuum of care available in institutional and non-institutional settings with formal and informal caregivers. Measures for avoidable (preventive and amenable) mortality contribute towards preventive long-term care. The delivery of health care by health professionals, allied health professionals and auxiliary care workers is discussed in this review, with examples of the training of nurses and social workers to show the range and variety of training available in the region. Caregiving is increasingly undertaken by migrant domestic and care workers and by volunteer health workers, often as part of community organizations. Institutional care is often perceived as abandonment and de-institutionalization is thus pursued as an “asset-light” policy option. But it should be supported as ageing-in-place, community-based services and platforms, with the integration of health and social care, innovative approaches for engagement and participation, and technology, all of which require trained human resources with the necessary skills and competencies. Other measures to strengthen care provision and support to older persons include expanding filial piety to social piety, changing mindsets and combating ageism for social solidarity and collective responsibility. It also includes measurement and monitoring mechanisms for accountability and course correction.
Technologies to reach older persons with health-care services
This review examines telemedicine practices, which are separated into teleconsultations and telemonitoring, that have applied information and communication technologies (ICT) for the delivery of health-care services to older persons in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia and China. The practices featured from the Republic of Korea and Japan are telemedicine pilot projects to manage chronic disease patients more efficiently and at lower cost. The projects included a health management curriculum, with emphasis on nutrition and exercise guidance. The participants in each pilot project found the services to be helpful in managing their health; the project evaluation findings also indicated several meaningful medical improvements. In Australia, a Home Monitoring of Chronic Disease for Aged Care Project was designed in 2014 to manage ageing patients with chronic diseases at home through various telemedicine devices. In China, the Ningbo Cloud Hospital was established in 2015 to control increasing health-care expenses and to resolve difficulties for individuals to see a doctor. More than 2,000 patients are now registered for online video consultations and prescriptions. The featured examples illustrate how the application of telemedicine to a health-care system not only promotes accessibility between doctors and patients but can save on construction costs for new facilities and the cost of supplying medical personnel in remote areas, which thus can help reduce national medical expenses. However, to initiate ICT-based health-care service delivery, governments in Asia and the Pacific need to first establish related policies that promote telemedicine.
Dynamics of structural transformation in South Asia
External sector liberalization, financial development and income in South Asia
The paper provides an analysis on the impact of external sector openness and financial sector development on per capita income in the South Asian economies of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. For the annual series from 1980 to 2015, the instrumental variable model using a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach is estimated. The results show that liberalizing the external sector raises per capita income, conditional on the level of financial sector development. The large-economy influence analysis shows that India will benefit the most from external sector liberalization and other economies involved in this study still need to focus on financial sector development as opposed to on liberalizing capital flows. It further indicates that premature external liberalization in small and poor economies tends to be beneficial to the large neighbouring economy, which in this case is India, leading to resource exploitation. Accordingly, unless financial markets and institutions are strong enough to effectively deal with domestic resource mobilization, opening up the external sector alone may impede the economic development process.
Impact of food inflation on headline inflation in India
A commonly held belief in the 1970s was that price indices rise because of temporary noise, and then revert after a short interval (Cecchetti and Moessner, 2008). Accordingly, policy should not respond to the inflation because of these volatile components of the price indices. This led to the development of the concept of core inflation (Gordon, 1975), which is headline inflation excluding food and fuel inflation. It was strongly believed that in the long run, headline inflation converges to core inflation and that there are no second round effects (that is an absence of core inflation converging to headline inflation). In recent years, however, major fluctuations in food inflation have occurred. This has become a major problem in developing countries, such as India, where a large portion of the consumption basket of the people are food items. Against this backdrop, in the present paper, an attempt is made to measure the second round effects stemming from food inflation in India using the measure of Granger causality in the frequency domain of Lemmens, Croux and Dekimpe (2008). The results of empirical analysis show significant causality running from headline inflation to core inflation in India and as a result, the prevalence of the second round effects. They also show that food inflation in India is not volatile, and that it feeds into the expected inflation of the households, causing the second round effects. This calls for the Reserve Bank of India to put greater effort in anchoring inflation expectations through effective communication and greater credibility.
Valuing the digital economy of New Zealand
The present paper provides estimates of the value of the digital economy of New Zealand through the use of the supply-use tables. By design, no changes are made to the production boundary as the products being assessed are already included within the production boundary and gross domestic product (GDP). The approach is a practical attempt at using the framework first presented in the paper entitled “Measuring digital trade: towards a conceptual framework”, and in particular, the “nature” component of the framework. This is extended to the whole economy to identify “digital” transactions in the country’s National Accounts Commodity Classification. The main finding from this paper is that the “digitally ordered” and “digitally delivered” aspects of the framework were able to be broadly applied. However, the significant material assumptions and the broad nature of the product classification at the aggregate level meant that our estimates were not of high quality. For the year ending March 2015, the estimate of the value of gross output of New Zealand that can be delivered digitally was 27.9 billion New Zealand dollars (NZ$) (US$18.8 billion), while for digitally ordered gross output, it was NZ$109.2 billion
Cheating the government: Does taxpayer perception matter?
Do people cheat because they can get away with it or because they feel that the rules are unfair? This paper addresses this question in the context of tax evasion. Specifically, taxpayer perception is incorporated into a widely used consumption-based method for estimating income tax evasion. Compared to the standard method, which distinguishes taxpayers only by their occupational or income type as a way of measuring their “ability” to misreport income, the refined method introduces taxpayers who may be “able but unwilling” to cheat because they feel fairly treated with respect to public services and as compared to other taxpayers. Applied to a longitudinal data for the Republic of Korea (2007–2015), the standard method yields a uniform tax evasion rate of 13 per cent, but the refined method provides a range of 7 to 25 per cent based on taxpayer perception. This implies that strategies for improving tax compliance must be tailored to different motivations for tax evasion.
The major unresolved issues in the negotiations on the UNCTAD Code of Conduct for the transfer of technology
Ten years after the appearance on the international agenda of the issue of technology transfer, a consensus seems to be emerging among the parties concerned —both technology suppliers and technology importers— that:
The impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality: a panel Autogressive Distributed Lag approach for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation developing economies
In the present paper, the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is investigated by using annual data for the period 1990–2015. The variables used are the Gini coefficient, FDI inflows, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, trade openness and human capital. Also, panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and panel heterogeneous non-causality tests are used in this study. The panel ARDL results suggest that, in the long run, FDI inflows decrease income inequality. This supports the argument that encouraging FDI inflows does not harm the distribution of income in APEC economies. The results also confirm that GDP per capita and trade openness help reduce income inequality while human capital widens income inequality. The results from this study suggest that APEC authorities could implement sound policies to attract more FDI, as evidence indicates that those inflows would narrow income inequality in APEC economies.
The export of manufactures
The development of the manufacturing sector has an important role to play in Latin America in relation to a long list of economic variables, all of which aim at changing the economic characteristics of the region in aspects such as the diversification of production, Structure of employment and production, growth of income and the average wage, and attenuation of the fluctuations in prices and export earnings, as will be seen in the following pages. Hence all measures tending to develop and consolidate this sector, whether through import substitution or exports of manufactures, merit special attention in the economic policy of the Latin American countries and the developing countries in general.
International economic reform and income distribution
Latin America on the threshold of the 1980s
With the end of the 1970s at hand, by way of drawing up a general balance the author sketches the main features of Latin American development in the recent past and notes the main challenges which the region will have to face in the years to come. He begins by recognizing that since the war, and especially during the 1960s and the beginning of the present decade, Latin America achieved vigorous economic growth, but he stresses that this did not succeed in solving some of the most serious social problems, while it also brought with it a growing internationalization of the economies of the region, with a consequent increase in their external vulnerability. Furthermore, towards the middle of the 1970s there was a reversal of the expansive cycle as a result of the flagging performance of the central economies, the changes in the international prices of some goods, especially oil, and the internal difficulties faced by the national development patterns themselves.
Mortgage loans and access to housing for low-income households in Latin America
On the basis of a study on mortgage loan options available in eight Latin American countries, this article identifies two pending tasks for most of the countries: the need to make long-term funds available to mitigate the risk of a mismatch of maturities and rates, and the need to harmonize profitability criteria for lenders with the criterion of access to credit for the low-income population. The paper recommends the creation of linkages between the housing finance market and the capital market through secondary mortgage markets, for which the housing finance market must use instruments other than subsidies. In addition, the paper proposes a number of options to ensure that the State helps to create mortgage markets that will provide the low-income population with better access to housing.
