الزراعة والتنمية الريفية والغابات
Strength of fertility motivation: Its effects on contraceptive use in rural Sri Lanka
Although questions on family size desires have been included routinely in fertility surveys for several decades, questions that attempt to assess the strength of those desires have been much less common. For example, neither the World Fertility Surveys nor the Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys included such questions. The on-going round of Demographic and Health Surveys include questions on strength of fertility motivation, but analyses of the effect of strength of motivation on contraceptive use have not yet been reported.
The KAP-Gap in Nepal: Reasons for non-use of contraception among couples with an unmet need for family planning
Fertility and family planning surveys conducted in developing countries around the world have consistently reported an inverse relationship between fertility preferences and the practice of contraception. These surveys have also shown, however, that substantial proportions of women stating that they do not want any more children are not practising contraception. These proportions generally range from 25 to 50 per cent, and reach even higher levels in Africa. This discrepancy between women’s stated preference to have no more children and their non-use of contraception is euphemistically referred to as the “KAP-Gap”.
Conference considers ageing
Population Ageing and its Economic and Social Implications was one of the agenda items considered at the Fourth Asian and Pacific Population Conference, which was held in Bali, Indonesia, from 19 to 27 August 1992.
Is institutionalization the answer for the elderly? The case of Singapore
Ageing of the population is a demographic phenomenon normally associated with developed countries. This particular trend is currently of concern to Singapore. In 1957, 43 per cent of the population was below 15 years of age, and the elderly aged 60 and over never exceeded 4 per cent of the total population. The median age of the population was at that time 18.8 years (Chen and Cheung, 1988). In 1989, persons aged 60 years and older comprised 8.6 per cent of the total population. In absolute numbers, this constituted 229,700 people (Department of Statistics, 1989). By 1987, the median age had matured to 28.4 years (Chen and Cheung, 1988). It has been projected that one in every four persons will be 60 years or older by the year 2030 (Ministry of Home Affairs, 1989). Data compiled from the U.S. Bureau of Census projected that, in Singapore, the increase in the number of elderly between 1985 and 2025 will be approximately 348 per cent, the second highest of 31 countries surveyed (Straits Times, 7 November 1988).
Breast-feeding patterns and correlates in Shaanxi, China
Breast-feeding is almost universal and lengthy in China, especially in less developed areas (SSB, 1986; Tu, 1989a). Breast-feeding serves as an effective means of birth spacing in traditional Chinese society where the reproductive potential is enormous owing to early and universal marriage. It also provides protection against malnutrition and infectious diseases that is very important for child survival, especially in rural areas where access to modern medical facilities is quite limited and infant formulas are not available (Tu, 1989a).
Effect of famine on child survival in Matlab, Bangladesh
Famine is defined as widespread food shortage leading to a significant rise in regional mortality (Blix, 1971). Historically, major causes of famine have been natural calamities. However, in modern times, when a natural disaster causes insufficient production of food, political and social factors play an important role in determining whether famine becomes widespread and who is affected (Alamgir, 1980; Langsten, 1985; Sen, 1980).
Initiation and duration of breast-feeding in Indonesia
Breast-feeding plays an important and influential role in child survival and fertility, offering immunological protection to an infant against early morbidity and mortality, and contraceptive protection to a mother against closely spaced pregnancies. In developing countries, breast-fed infants experience substantially lower morbidity and mortality risks than infants who are not breast-fed, particularly in the first year of life (Retherford et al., 1989; Pebley and Stupp, 1986; Palloni and Millman, 1986; Grant, 1984; Knodel and Kintner, 1977; Wray, 1977). A survey of 33 comparative studies of breast- and bottle-feeding in different parts of the world has concluded that the risk of death in infancy is three times higher for “mixed-fed” babies (both breast- and bottle-fed) and five times higher for babies who are exclusively bottle-fed (Grant, 1984) relative to exclusively breast-fed babies.
Further evidence of the onset of fertility decline in Nepal
Until recently, it was believed that fertility in Nepal has persisted at a very high level with a total fertility rate (TFR) of around six children per woman. In a recent article, Tuladhar (1989, pp. 15-30), using the birth history data from the 1986 Fertility and Family Planning Survey, obtained a TFR of 5.61 children per woman for the period 1980-1985. This rate was obtained without any adjustment to the raw data. He cautiously concluded that Nepal may be on the verge of the onset of fertility decline. Except for this publication, the author knows of no other studies so far which address the issue of fertility decline in Nepal. Therefore, the aim of this note is to use village-level data to contribute to the on-going debate about the onset of fertility decline in Nepal in general and the study population in particular.
Towards a comprehensive population strategy for Nepal
Nepal is entering the 1990s with a new political system. A democratically elected Government will be in office within a year’s time and one of its first tasks will be to define a fresh development strategy for the country to deal with old problems. Prominent among these are challenging population problems: a high population growth rate, heavy migration of people moving form over-exploited terraces in the mountains and hills towards an almost saturated agricultural frontier in the terai (lowlands near the border with India), scattered population settlements in most of the rural areas which make it difficult and costly to provide them with basic infrastructure and services, and an explosive growth of most of the still incipient urban centres in the country.
Fertility trends in rural China in the 1980s: Cohort effect versus period effect
While the dramatic decline in fertility in China in the 1970s has been acknowledged worldwide and is very well documented in the demographic literature both at home and abroad (China Population Information Center, 1984; Coale, 1984, among others), China’s fertility and related population trends in the 1980s have evoked much concern and discussion in recent years (Hardee-Cleveland and Banister, 1988; Zeng, 1989; Kaufman et al., 1989; Greenhalgh, 1989, 1990; Tien, 1990a; Aird, 1990; Poston, 1991, among others).
China: A unique urbanization model
In recent decades, many third world countries have been experiencing rapid rates of urbanization resulting in an explosion in the siae of their urban population. China, however, has been a striking exception to the general patterns. The Government of China has intervened in order to keep the process of urbanization under control. Since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, the Government has taken measures to control gradually the rapid growth of population and to regulate by various means the increase of the urban population and the level of urbanization. The low level of urbanization in China has thus been well recognized in recent studies of the demographic, geographic, social and economic development of this country (Chen, 1973; Thompson, 1975; Chang, 1976; Chiu, 1980; Yeh and Xu, 1984; Chen, 1988).
Micro-consequences of low fertility in Singapore
The fertility decline of Singapore is often cited as a success story of a developing country’s effort to balance population growth with economic development. Since achieving nationhood in 1965, Singapore’s fertility has fallen by almost 70 per cent in about 20 years: the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 4.66 in 1965 to a historic low of 1.44 in 1986, after breaking through the replacement level in 1975. The size of successive birth cohorts also fell by about one-third, even though the number of married women of reproductive ages increased by more than 70 per cent. After 15 years of below-replacement fertility, Singapore can be characterized truly as a lowfertility society.
Implications of changing family structures on old-age support in the ESCAP region
Families alone do not have the capacity to provide the care and support for the increasing number of elderly persons.
Rethinking population communication
Long overdue, there is a resurgence of interest in population communication and information activities. This is much welcomed because it is time to reconfirm the significant role of communication in the success of national population programmes, and to take stock of the field of population communication. Taking stock does not mean making yet another comprehensive review of past research and programmes; many others have already com- piled excellent assessments (Johnson, Wilder and Bogue, 1973; Echols, 1974; Saunders, 1977; Rogers, Solomon and Adhikarya, 1982; Snyder, Kim and Rogers, 1985; ICOMP, 1986). Instead, what is needed is a focused analysis of the present situation.
A multi-level analysis of the determinants of fertility in the four regions of Thailand
Multiround vital statistics survey in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Because reliable estimates of the population and related data are needed to guide national development planning, the first population census of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic in 1985 was very important as a way of providing valuable statistics on the size, distribution and characteristics of the population. However, while the census provided good estimates of the population size and related measures such as fertility and mortality, it was less useful as a means of identifying the speed and manner in which the population was changing. Thus, a project was developed by the ESCAP secretariat with funding from UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) to assist the Government in improving civil registration and vital statistics. The project had two broad objectives. The first was to provide training and support to selected village chiefs as a way of strengthening their role as civil registrars in the hope that this would lead to eventual improvement in the national registration system. The second broad objective was to set up a system of statistical collection, involving regular visits to selected households, to provide good estimates of vital statistics. This system is referred to as a multiround survey. Although it has many methodological weaknesses, this type of survey can provide some valuable population data in a country where financial resources for conducting censuses and surveys are limited.
Population projections for Mongolia: 1989-2019
This note provides updates of the population projections prepared by the State Statistical Office of Mongolia in 1989. The exercise is justified for two reasons. First, as has been the case with other former socialist countries, Mongolia has recently been experiencing substantial economic, social and political transformations that will certainly have a major impact on its future population dynamics. Second, during the last four years, there have been substantial deviations in fertility and mortality trends from those that were foreseen some time ago. In part, these changes have occurred as a result of the transformations that are going on in the country, but mainly because of major changes in population policies. Past and recent population trends in Mongolia, as well as shifts in population policies, are described and examined in the lead article of this Journal starting on page 3.
Family planning needs and costs: Nepal, 1985-2000
In the early 1980s the Government of Nepal set a demographic target of reducing the current fertility rate of about six children per woman of childbearing age to 2.5 by the end of the century. To achieve this target, increasing attention has been given to implementing family planning programmes both in the public and private sectors. The key questions are: What level of family planning practice will be required to reach this national target? Through what compositions of contraceptive method use can the fertility target be achieved? What might this effort cost?
Determinants of contraceptive method choice in an industrial city of India
Even though India instituted the first national family planning programme in the world, its contraceptive prevalence rate is still relatively low. In 1980, a national survey estimated that 35 per cent of the currently married women aged 15-44 years were currently using contraceptives, of whom 63 per cent were using sterilization (Khan and Prasad, 1983, pp. 112, 120). As late as 1984-1985, close to the time our study was carried out, oflicial government estimates based on service statistics still showed only 36 per cent of the eligible couples as being currently protected (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, 1986, p. 14); of these, 70 per cent were using sterilization (Ibid., p. 187).
An analysis of the effects of fertility on women’s spatial mobility in the Philippines
Although numerous studies have been conducted on the interaction between fertility and migration in the context of rapid population growth in developing countries, little has been said about the impact of fertility on migration. Instead attention has been focused disproportionately on the effects of migration on fertility (Myers, 1966; Macisco et al., 1970; Zarate and Zarate, 1975; Magnani, 1980; Goldstein and Goldstein, 1981, 1983; Weller and Bouvier, 1981; Findley, 1982; Berry, 1983; Lee and Farber, 1984).