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- Volume 2015, Issue 117, 2015
CEPAL Review - Volume 2015, Issue 117, 2015
Volume 2015, Issue 117, 2015
Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of reforms and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista De La Cepal), each tri-annual issue brings you approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.
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Meta-analysis of the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand: public policy implications for Latin America
By means of a meta-analysis, this article sets out to estimate average values for the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand and to analyse the reasons for the variations in the elasticities reported by the literature. The findings show that there is publication bias, that the volatility of elasticity estimates is not due to sampling errors alone, and that there are systematic factors explaining these differences. The income and price elasticities of gasoline demand differ between the short and long run and by region, and the estimation can appropriately include the vehicle fleet and the prices of substitute goods, the data types and the estimation methods used. The presence of a low price elasticity suggests that a fuel tax will be inadequate to control rising consumption in a context of rapid economic growth.
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Macroprudential policy: an institutionalist interpretation
Authors: Gustavo Chagas Goudard and Fábio Henrique Bittes TerraOne of the consequences of the recent international economic crisis has been the demand for new economic policy tools, to add to the well-established monetary, exchange-rate, and fiscal policy mechanisms. In particular, more effective ways are needed to regulate the financial system and prevent the emergence of imbalances that affect the real economy. In that context, macroprudential policy has been singled out as another economic-type public policy which could help maintain financial stability. Nonetheless, the discussions and development of the literature on this topic are founded on pragmatic considerations that are not directly related to the orthodox or heterodox schools of economic thought. So the aim of this article is to provide an institutionalist reading of macroprudential policy, to understand it in terms of the theoretical content of institutional approaches.
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Export competitiveness in an oil and gas economy: the case of Trinidad and Tobago, 1985-2010
Authors: Indira Romero-Márquez and Juan Carlos Moreno-BridThe oil and gas sector has led the economy of Trinidad and Tobago since the late 1970s and, more pronouncedly, since 2000, accounting for a large share of gdp, total exports and tax revenue. Its prospects in the medium term could be negatively affected, however, if oil and gas extraction expands in other countries, and if the United States attains energy self-sufficiency. This paper offers an analysis of the evolution and competitiveness of its oil and non-oil exports to both the United States and global markets, based on the revealed comparative advantage (rca) index used by eclac. Other foreign trade indicators are also included to determine the structure of the country’s trading relations. The period from 1985 to 2010 is analysed and the results presented are intended to advocate the diversification of Trinidad and Tobago’s exports into more dynamic and diversified markets.
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Ecuador: return from migration and entrepreneurship in Loja
Authors: Silverio Alarcón and Jessica OrdóñezDrawing on data from a survey of returning migrants, this study examines the factors behind the decision to launch a business in Loja, Ecuador. The possible explanations fall under various headings: demographic characteristics, work experience abroad, reasons for returning, current situation, intention to re-emigrate, and activity before, during and after migration. The study also considers different concepts of “entrepreneur”, as own-account worker and as employer. The results are analysed, first, using univariate tests and then estimating probit models. The variables most closely associated with a high probability of starting a business after returning from migration are entrepreneurial experience during the migration, and the fact of having returned voluntarily, as well as having worked in the host country in agriculture or the hospitality sector. Having university training and having worked in public administration before migrating are negative factors. Other influential variables are age and the wage or salary received abroad, but these are more nuanced.
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Paraguay: a housing finance proposal for middle- to low-income groups
Authors: J. Vicente Fruet Cardozo and Guzmán A. Muñoz FernándezThe construction and ownership of homes is fundamental to economic development, the generation of wealth and the formation of the middle class. Although a number of studies have been conducted and programmes implemented in recent decades, there remains a significant housing deficit in Paraguay and Latin America, indicating that such programmes have been unsuccessful. For families unable to document a steady income, the main obstacle to homeownership is often financing. This paper aims to demonstrate the economic and financial feasibility—provided there is sufficient political will and coordination between public and private entities—of a project to build 75,000 homes for 300,000 people (4.5% of the Paraguayan population) with middle to low incomes. The median household income in this segment, for which there is a significant shortage of decent housing, is US$ 396.50. A maximum of US$ 63.44 per month may be set aside for housing costs.
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Going through the labyrinth: the political economy of Argentina’s abandonment of the gold standard (1929-1933)
Authors: Pablo Gerchunoff and José Luis MachineaThis article is the short but crucial history of four years of transition in a monetary and exchange-rate regime that culminated in 1933 with the final abandonment of the gold standard in Argentina. That process involved decisions made at critical junctures at which the government authorities had little time to deliberate and against which they had no analytical arsenal, no technical certainties and few political convictions. The objective of this study is to analyse those “decisions” at seven milestone moments, from the external shock of 1929 to the submission to Congress of a bill for the creation of the central bank and a currency control regime characterized by multiple exchange rates. The new regime that this reordering of the Argentine economy implied would remain in place, in one form or another, for at least a quarter of a century.
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Informality and labour market segmentation: the case of Argentina
Authors: Luis Beccaria and Fernando GroismanThe document evaluates the presence of segmentation in the Argentinean labour market. The analysis is centred on the comparison of the earnings of formal and informal workers. Two different approaches to the definition of informality are used. The existence of a formal premium is tested using dynamic data and semiparametric techniques. The period analysed is 1996-2006 for all urban surveyed areas. Our results support the segmentation hypothesis for the Argentine urban labour market: workers with similar probabilities of entering/exiting across sectors obtain different earnings.
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Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targets in Chile
Authors: Patricio Mujica and Rodrigo SaensUsing quarterly data on the Chilean economy from 1986 to 2009, this article looks at the effect of gradual implementation of an inflation-targeting regime on exchange rate pass-through to prices. Initially, the introduction of inflation-targeting contributes to substantial reductions in the pass-through coefficient. However, in the second phase of implementation, once the monetary authority extends the policy horizon and introduces greater flexibility into the exchange rate system, the pass-through coefficient rises sharply. The findings of this study show that exchange rate pass-through to prices, in addition to being sensitive to the inflationary environment, is closely tied to the rules of the game that shape the monetary policy framework.
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Mexico: industrial policies and the production of information and communication technology goods and services
Authors: Claudia Schatan and Leobardo EnríquezThis study investigates the extent to which the digital boom has had repercussions on productive activity, in terms of both manufacturing (ict goods) and services (ict services), in addition to its potential ramifications in the rest of the Mexican economy. Input-output matrices are used and compared to those of Brazil and the United States. Mexico has fallen behind, particularly in the production of ict goods, and the productive chains of this activity have weakened. The ict services sector offers much greater potential than has been exploited thus far, with the advantage that it involves comparatively more value added and has major diversification possibilities. It is considered essential to find more effective industrial policies targeted on the ict goods and services sectors; but the experience of countries such as Brazil, which have applied more proactive approaches with mixed results, suggests that this will be challenging.
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Industrial location and sectoral linkages: the case of the Brazilian automotive industry
The aim of this article is to analyse the spatial distribution of the automotive industry in Brazil in terms of its various economic categories between 1995 and 2011, and to shed light on its sectoral linkages through inter-regional input-output matrices. By calculating the coefficient of localization (QLij) for that period, it was found that the third wave of investments, which began in the second half of the 1990s, actually caused a slight spatial deconcentration of this sector in the national economy. The coefficient of geographic association (CAik)calculated for different years revealed a slight reduction, while maintaining a high level of concentration, which suggests that vehicle production is closely integrated with other economic activities. This integration was corroborated particularly in terms of input purchases (backward linkages) in all of the analysed regions.
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