Economic Development and the Evolution of Internal Migration

This paper uses Demographic and Health surveys to estimate internal migration between and within rural and urban areas for 31 countries at different stages of development. The methodological approach is to estimate migration transition matrices indicating the shares of the population (by gender) that move or stay in rural and urban areas over three periods (childhood and two forward periods). Results indicate that rural-to-rural migration is the dominant form of migration in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia that are still relatively less developed. For countries that have already undertaken the path of structural transformation, rural-to-urban migration is greater than intra-rural migration. Sizeable urban to rural migration flows are found in many countries, with rural returnees often contributing substantially to these urban-to-rural flows, which has implications for development options in both rural and urban areas. Return migration to rural areas is particularly large in countries in relatively early phases of development, and higher for males than for females. For the sample of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, on average 61 percent of males and 34 percent of females migrating from urban-to-rural areas are return migrants who lived in rural areas as children. The analysis also confirms anecdotal evidence that migrants move in several steps: in the overall sample of countries, at least 41 percent of males and 36 percent of females who move once will move a second time (or more). Internal migration patterns vary considerably according to gender in some regions of the world; however, in countries that are further along the path of structural transformation, and particularly urbanization, the magnitude of migration flows appears to be similar across genders.