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Latin America: Variability and persistence in commodity prices
- Source: CEPAL Review, Volume 2011, Issue 103, Aug 2011, p. 89 - 114
- Spanish
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- 02 Aug 2011
Abstract
This article describes variability and persistence in the real prices of Latin America’s main export commodities. The results of this research show that real price index series for a large majority of commodities display high persistence to shocks; and, as they repeatedly suffer both positive and negative shocks, all commodities display multiple cycles. The rising price phase that began in the early 2000s differed from previous upswings in terms of its duration, nature and the number of products involved. As this is a just one cycle, however, it is impossible to claim that a definitive change has occurred in the cyclical pattern of commodity price series.
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