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Asia-Pacific Development Journal

The Asia-Pacific Development Journal (APDJ) is published twice a year by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. The primary objective of the APDJ is to provide a platform for the exchange of knowledge, experience, ideas, information and data on all aspects of economic and social development issues and concerns facing the region and aims to stimulate policy debate and assist policy formulation. The APDJ provides a scholarly means for bringing together research work by eminent social scientists and development practitioners from the region and beyond for use by a variety of stakeholders. The Journal aims to stimulate policy debate and assist policy formulation in the region.

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Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: A gravity model analysis

The easing of economic sanctions against Myanmar by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar would expand its exports. However, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the time sanctions had been applied raises concern about the so-called Dutch disease. This study forecasts Myanmar’s export potential by calculating counterfactual export values using a gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into consideration the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during the period 2004-2011 are more than five times larger than those of actual exports. If these effects are taken into account, however, the predicted values are lower than those of actual exports. The empirical results imply that Dutch disease is more of a risk in Myanmar than it is in any other South-East Asian country.

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