CEPAL Review

Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of economic reform and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista de la Cepal), each tri-annual issue offers approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.

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Peru: Integration, sectoral specialization and synchronization with international gross domestic product cycles

This paper analyses the way the integration of trade, finance and sectoral specialization relates to the degree of synchronization between the gross domestic product (gdp) cycles of Peru and those of the 31 countries with which it trades most. The analysis is based on estimation of a system of simultaneous equations with panel data in which account is also taken of the repercussions of preferential trade agreements (ptas). The findings reveal robust two-way relationships between synchronization and financial integration, between the latter and trade integration, and between trade integration and sectoral specialization. ptas did not influence the different variables considered. This evidence suggests that greater trade integration in Peru would intensify the effects of partner countries’ gdp cycles on Peruvian output in contexts like the 2008 and 2010 crises.

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