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CEPAL Review

Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of economic reform and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista de la Cepal), each tri-annual issue offers approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.

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Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia

This paper explores the impact of the terms of trade on output fluctuations in Colombia, a developing country where as much as 62% of export earnings come from just four commodities: oil (42%), coal (14%), coffee (5%), and nickel (1%). This research was prompted by: the particular role of short-run fluctuations in developing economies, the fact that the Colombian terms of trade are procyclical, and the discussion on economic policies towards sterilization of the effects of commodity prices. Following time series analysis for the period 1994 -2011, robust evidence was found indicating that around one third of Colombia’s quarterly growth is attributable to changes in the terms of trade.

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