1887

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers aim to stimulate discussion and critical comment on the broad range of economic, social and environmental issues associated with the United Nations Development Agenda.

English

The Dual Divergence

Growth Successes and Collapses in the Developing World Since 1980

Th is paper argues that developing countries’ growth successes and collapses tend to cluster in specific time periods—and that only the existence of a global development cycle can explain this. The cycle reflects the external factors that affect all, or large clusters of developing countries, and thus constrain their growth possibilities. Nonetheless, country-specific factors—particularly patterns of specialization—play a significant role in determining growth dynamics. From this perspective, the paper shows a very large difference between the economic growth of developing countries diversifying into higher technology manufacturing exports and those experiencing success in natural resource intensive sectors.

English

Keywords: patterns of specialization, global development cycle, economic growth, divergence, external factors, technological intensity of exports
JEL: O14: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology; F1: International Economics / Trade; O1: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development; F43: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Economic Growth of Open Economies; F4: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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