Trade-led Growth

A Sound Strategy for Asia

image of Trade-led Growth
The global economic crisis triggered changes in real economies and trade in all countries, including those in Asia, which adopted the so-called export-led growth model. With these drastic changes in trade flows, and the need to counteract potential adverse effects, the old debate on the advantages and flaws of the export-led model has re-opened. It aims to provide some theoretical and empirical reasons towards an argument that for developing Asian economies, export-led growth is still a valid model of stable, equitable and sustainable growth. It also combines local research with that of established ones. While there is extensive literature focusing on the role of openness and trade in a country’s development, much of it dates to before the most recent global crisis. Volumes that were recently published argue against an export-led growth strategy, while this volume argues in defence of trade-led growth for the Asian region.



Trade and sectoral impacts of the global financial crisis — A dynamic computable generale quilibrium analysis

The current global financial crisis has resulted in a significant downturn in the global economy. Although there have recently been signs that the worst of the crisis may be over, the global economy remains fragile, with much uncertainty remaining (International Monetary Fund, 2009b; World Trade Organization, 2009a). Meanwhile, the impacts of the crisis continue to be felt throughout the world. This chapter uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore some of the effects of two different crisis scenarios, with particular focus on trade and sectoral impacts in ESCAP member countries. The potential impacts of the recent tendency to move toward greater protection of domestic industries are also analysed.


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