World Population Prospects

The 2010 Revision, Volume II - Demographic Profiles

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This report presents the 2010 Revision of the population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2010 Revision constitutes the twenty second round of the global population estimates and projections produced by the Population Division since 1951 and it breaks new ground in the production of population projections. For the first time, projections are carried out up to 2100, instead of 2050 as previously. In order to extend the projection period to 2100, a new method for the projection of fertility was developed. The full results of the 2010 Revision are presented in two volumes. The first volume provides comprehensive tables displaying key demographic indicators for each development group, major area, region and country for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. The second volume contains demographic profiles presenting time series and plots covering the period from 1950 to 2100 for selected indicators for each country with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2010 as well as for development groups, major areas and regions.



Mortality and the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS

The twentieth century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at the world level was 48 years and it had reached 68 years by 2005-2010. Over the next 45 years, life expectancy at birth at the global level is expected to reach 76 years in 2045-2050 and 81 years in 2095-2100 (table III.1). The more developed regions already had a high expectation of life in 1950-1955 (66 years) and have since experienced further gains in longevity. By 2005-2010 their life expectancy stood at 76.9 years, 11 years higher than in the less developed regions where the expectation of life at birth was 65.9 years. Although the gap between the two groups is expected to narrow between 2005 and mid-century, in 2045-2050 the more developed regions are still expected to have considerably higher life expectancy at birth than the less developed regions (82.7 years versus 74.4 years). Throughout 2010-2100, systematic progress against mortality is further expected to increase life expectancy at birth up to 88.2 years in the more developed regions and 80.1 years in the less developed regions thereby further reducing the gap in mortality between the two groups.


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