Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commodities Exports to China

This research paper presents a preliminary assessment of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on commodities exports to China with a focus on exports from Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs). Results indicate that in comparison to short term tendencies observed in the past three years, total commodities exports to China are currently moving downward. As compared to a situation without the COVID-19 crisis, total commodities exports to China may fall by 15.5 to 33.1 billion US Dollars during 2020, resulting in reduction of the projected annual growth of up to 46 percent (i.e. 8 percentage points). Although CDDCs commodities exports to China are also expected to decrease, the estimated impact is weaker.