Trade and Development Report 2000

Global Economic Growth and Imbalances

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A valuable resource for those involved in international business and economic development, the Trade and Development Report (TDR) 2000, issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), examines current performance and prospects in the world economy. Held in high regard by political decision makers and researchers the world over, the Report this year examines whether the current recovery in the global economy is built on solid foundations. It asks how the promise of an economic future underpinned by new technologies stands with the growing instability and uncertainty of market-driven globalization. The Report also looks at the elements of the East Asian recovery and considers policy options likely to bring about sustainable growth and development.



Crisis and recovery in East Asia

The speed of recovery in East Asian emerging markets most affected by the financial crisis has astounded the most optimistic observers, even though a Mexican-style V-shaped recovery was widely predicted for most economies in the region. Even institutions such as IMF, which have had first-hand information on the state of the economies concerned and exerted a major influence on the policies pursued in response to the crisis, now see their original projections of economic growth in the region exceeded by a large margin. The Republic of Korea is an outstanding case in point, where the growth rate came close to 11 per cent in 1999, compared to an IMF projection in May 1999 of 2 per cent. The economies of ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) also recovered, growing at an average of almost 3 per cent in 1999, as opposed to earlier IMF projections of a further contraction of activity. The speed of recovery in the region has also belied the forecasts of other institutions and observers, including the UNCTAD secretariat, which disagreed with the orthodox diagnosis and policy response to the crisis.


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