How Likely Are We to Achieve the SDGs at the Current Pace? Public Budgets and Policy Priorities in Colombia

This policy brief analyses the possible convergence of SDG indicators for Colombia. The methodology uses an agent-based model to depict the distribution of public resources for the SDGs within governments, modelling budgeting inertia, interdependency, and spillovers across the 17 SDGs, with the purpose of informing policymakers of the prospective implications of current budgetary policy. Using historical budget and development indicators, we find that (i) at the current pace, only 18 percent of SDG indicators will reach their targets by 2030; (ii) there are structural bottlenecks in close to 65 percent of SDG indicators that do not respond to boosts in resources; and (iii) budget reallocations could have a greater impact on SDG achievement than simply increasing resources. To accelerate SDG achievement, governments need to redesign some of the current programs and implement results-based budgeting anchored by SDG indicators.