1945

Overview by the Secretary-General of UNCTAD

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At the turn of the decade the world economy appears poised for a number of changes of far-reaching importance. These include the transformation of the economies of Eastern Europe and their integration into the world trading and financial systems; the creation of a single market in Western Europe; major reduction of the United States budget deficit, with the prospect of the United States ceasing to be a large net capital importer; and changes in the international trading system, following the conclusion of the Uruguay Round. In some of these areas -for example the creation of a single market in Europe in 1992 - the shape of the eventual outcome is reasonably clear, but its consequences for the world economy none the less remain uncertain. In others -for example the transformation of Eastern Europe and the assault on the United States budget deficit - the shape of the outcome is at present quite unclear, and the consequences of the policy initiatives under way therefore all the more uncertain. The outcome of the Uruguay Round is also difficult to foresee. Should it fail, there is a very real danger that the international trading system could became fragmented into a few powerful trading blocs and that the forces for managed trade could gain the upper hand, with negative consequences for developing countries.

Related Subject(s): International Trade and Finance
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