Demographic impact of AIDs on the Thai population

Thailand continues to feel the impact of a long-standing acquired immunodeficiency syndrome AIDS epidemic. Encouraged by the ready availability of epidemiological and behavioural data, a number of modelling efforts have been undertaken in an attempt to understand the impact of the epidemic since 1990. However, as better models are developed and the course of the epidemic changes, owing to behaviourial modifications as well as advances in therapy, there remains an ongoing need to provide new estimates and projections of the impact of AIDS on the Thai population. This paper projects the important demographic parameters of population size and annual growth rate. In addition, mortality indicators such as the crude death rate, agespecific death rate, infant mortality rate, child mortality rate (1-4 years) and life expectancy at birth are projected. These projections are made through a comparison of two scenarios: in the absence of AIDS and with AIDS. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the potential social and economic impacts of AIDS.