Leading indicators for monitoring the stability of asset and financial markets in Asia and the Pacific

The Asian economic and financial crisis of 1997 has spawned a considerable body of analysis as to its origin, causes and resolution. It is generally recognized that structural weaknesses of the financial systems of the affected countries were at the core of the problem. It follows from this that monitoring the stability of financial markets, including asset markets, and devising early warning systems for problems in these markets would enable the authorities to deal better with potential crises and to develop more effective policy interventions to that end. The Asian Development Bank has undertaken the development of a system of MPIs macroprudential indicators (MPIs) to facilitate cross-country comparisons of economic and financial vulnerability in the Asian and Pacific region. This paper evaluates the significance of the MPIs chosen for this purpose and highlights the need for a core set of leading indicators for giving early warning of financial vulnerability.