Household Vulnerability to Food Security in the Face of Climate Change in Paraguay

Climate change may have devastating effects on agricultural productivity and food security, impacting significantly the poorest households. In this study, we analyse the effect climate change is expected to have on agricultural productivity, caloric consumption, and vulnerability to food insecurity of household agricultural producers in Paraguay. Our results suggest that increasing temperatures and reduced precipitation will reduce agricultural productivity and caloric consumption, and increase vulnerability to food insecurity. Specifically, a 1 percent increase in average maximum temperatures is associated with a 5 percent reduction in agricultural productivity. A 5 percent reduction in agricultural productivity translates into nearly a 1 percent reduction in caloric consumption. Vulnerability to food insecurity in Paraguay is expected to increase by 28 percentage points by 2100 due to climate change, increasing fastest in areas where temperatures are increasing and rainfall is diminishing. We estimate that improvements in infrastructure, farm technology, and education may reduce nearly half of the expected future adverse effects of climate change on household vulnerability to food insecurity. With current climate trends in Paraguay, policy makers will need to prioritize and tailor adaptive and mitigating interventions to the needs of the different geographical locations of the country.