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Mitigating Climate Change Through Investments in Fossil Fuel Technologies

A Synthesis Report Based on National Case Studies from Afghanistan, China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan

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This report is the principal written deliverable of the project "Mitigating climate change through attracting foreign direct investment in advanced fossil fuel technologies", financed from the United Nations Development Account (UNDA). The project, implemented in 2010-2012, covered nine countries: Afghanistan, China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The report takes into account findings of the national baseline studies, drafted for each of the nine countries between November 2011 and August 2012. The report summarizes and interprets the experiences, policies, and plans for the future of each country in developing a thermal electricity sector using advanced technologies that reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and exploit the countries’ fossil fuel resources.

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Electricity demand growth and plans for the future

A country’s economic growth is directly underpinned by its growth in electricity output. Planners in China and India have both forecast that electricity capacity needs to grow by 8.5-9.5 per cent per year and 8.0 per cent per year, respectively, in order to support the planned annual growth in GDP of 10 per cent and 8 per cent in the coming five years. Between 2010 and 2012—a period when Chinese planners were actively trying to slow the economy—growth in electricity demand was about 7 per cent a year reaching a new high level of consumption of 4.7 Petawatt hours (1,000 billion kWh). Demand already for electricity in both countries is greater than production. In China, there was an implied deficit of 30 GWh of power in 2011, and it is estimated to be 40 GWh this year which means supply and demand are virtually balanced, but many regions of the country are supply constrained or under-supplied. In India, meanwhile, there has been a systemic deficit in electricity supply of about 8 per cent a year over the past decade. Planners expect that 94 GW of new capacity will be needed in the coming five years just to keep up with the growth in demand, but not to close the deficit.

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