Trade and sectoral impacts of the global financial crisis — A dynamic computable generale quilibrium analysis

The current global financial crisis has resulted in a significant downturn in the global economy. Although there have recently been signs that the worst of the crisis may be over, the global economy remains fragile, with much uncertainty remaining (International Monetary Fund, 2009b; World Trade Organization, 2009a). Meanwhile, the impacts of the crisis continue to be felt throughout the world. This chapter uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore some of the effects of two different crisis scenarios, with particular focus on trade and sectoral impacts in ESCAP member countries. The potential impacts of the recent tendency to move toward greater protection of domestic industries are also analysed.

Related Subject(s): Economic and Social Development