Brazil
Los bancos de desarrollo en la “era de la liberalización financier”: El caso del BNDES en Brasil
En este artículo se examinan las posibles repercusiones de la política de liberalización financiera en el papel de los bancos de desarrollo y en particular del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y Social (bndes) como principal financiador del proceso de desarrollo económico brasileño. Se argumenta que si bien la liberalización puede promover el desenvolvimiento financiero este tiende a ocurrir de manera “incompleta” sobre todo ante las necesidades de progreso económico en los países menos desarrollados entre ellos Brasil. El análisis del caso brasileño parece confirmar esta tesis y demuestra que a pesar de la política de liberalización financiera aplicada el bndes no solo preservó sino que amplió su posición relativa en el mercado local durante el período analizado (1990-2006).
Integración regional y diversificación de exportaciones en el Mercosur: El caso de Argentina y Brasil
Se analizan los efectos del comercio argentino con sus socios del Mercosur en dos períodos clave: antes (1997-1998) y después (2005-2006) de las crisis de sus economías. Para examinar la repercusión del comercio en la regionalización de las exportaciones e importaciones de los países miembros se utilizó el índice de orientación regional empleado por Yeats al estudiar estos países para otro período. Se concluye que los resultados alcanzados por Yeats se contradicen con la realidad posterior de Argentina y Brasil a los que el Mercosur permitió mediante procesos de aprendizaje aumentar el comercio con países exteriores al bloque. Este efecto positivo se sintió principalmente en Brasil y no tanto en los demás miembros especialmente Uruguay y Paraguay debido a las asimetrías subyacentes entre las economías de estos países que determinaron que el país más grande sea el principal beneficiado de la integración hasta el presente.
¿Hay despoblación en el Brasil? Relaciones entre crecimiento demográfico, envejecimiento, migración e integración competitiva
La Amazonia Legal y el Cerrado en el contexto de la migración interna en el Brasil en el período 1995-2010
Acceso a la salud sexual y reproductiva y fecundidad de las jóvenes en el Brasil: desigualdades territoriales
Epicentros de emigración: un análisis comparativo de la evolución de sus dinámicas socioeconómicas y demográficas en Colombia y el Brasil
América Latina y el Caribe es una región de origen destino y tránsito de gran dinamismo para la migración internacional. Según la última ronda censal el patrón migratorio de la región presenta algunas continuidades así como cambios en el volumen y la dirección de los flujos y en la composición y características de la población migrante sobre la cual poco sabemos. Este artículo presenta un análisis comparativo de la evolución de las dinámicas socioeconómica y demográfica de la migración internacional en el Eje Cafetero (Colombia) y la microrregión de Governador Valadares (Brasil) los principales centros de emigración de estos países. Se emplea un enfoque cuantitativo que incluye el análisis de los datos censales de emigración internacional de ambos países que han sido poco explorados en la literatura y además se cualifica la complejidad de los procesos migratorios a escala nacional y regional. Los resultados indican que los flujos han variado en sintonía con las dinámicas sociales económicas y políticas regionales nacionales e internacionales.
Public-debt management: The Brazilian experience
This paper analyses public-debt management in Brazil and considers the main recent theoretical models and the possible effect that the strategy adopted by the Treasury from 1999 onwards could have on the base interest rate. The findings show that the public-debt-management strategy adopted by Brazil was based on the recommendations of Calvo and Guidotti (1990). The average maturity of public debt the proportion of shares linked to the Special System of Clearance and Custody (SELIC) and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio all play a significant role in determining the base interest rate. Government efforts to restructure public-debt maturities and reduce the negative effect on the interest rate are key in this regard.
The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns
This article aims to determine whether the geographical pattern of the external trade of foreign-owned enterprises in Brazil differs from that of domestic enterprises and whether in the case of foreign enterprises the region of origin of their capital is an important factor in determining that pattern both in terms of the origin and destination of their imports and exports and with regard to the technological content of the pattern. The methodology employed was panel analysis applied to a representative set of enterprises using trade data broken down by region for 1989 1997 and 2000.
Brazilian fiscal institutions: The Cardoso reforms, 1995-2002
This paper looks at Brazil’s fiscal policy during the two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso: 1995-1998 and 1998-2002. It stresses that the authorities’ austere attitude was as important as institutional and structural reform for the fiscal adjustment that followed the 1998-1999 crisis. The principal cause of the fiscal deterioration in 1995-1998 was the reduction in the primary balance rather than the increase in the interest burden while the fiscal adjustment in 1999-2002 was largely due to increased revenues as primary public expenditure by the federal government continued to grow in real terms. We consider the outlook for fiscal sustainability and conclude that to preserve the country’s hard-won fiscal discipline the austere fiscal attitude shown recently by the authorities should be permanently embedded into fiscal institutions.
Employment Challenges and Policy Responses in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
In this paper we argue that Argentina Brazil and Mexico must focus economic and social policies on creating employment if they want to provide decent work (i.e. formal jobs with social security coverage). During the 1990s financial and trade liberalization and the associated laissez-faire policies did not deliver in terms of growth or employment in the countries under consideration. We assess the macroeconomic trade investment and labour-market policies of the countries during 1990-2004 and then propose a series of recommendations that give employment growth the priority it deserves.
Determinants of technological innovation in Argentina and Brazil
This article analyses and compares the determinants of innovation in Argentina and Brazil countries that have based their industrialization strategies on import substitution. Probit regressions in which instrumental variables are used to check for problems of endogeneity of exports reveal that in both countries knowledge external to firms helps to promote innovation that internal research and development capacity is relatively weak and that external trade integration has a positive effect on firms’ propensity to innovate (more so in Brazil than in Argentina). The results of this study suggest in general that there has been modest progress in the pattern of innovation among Argentine and Brazilian firms in recent years compared with the import substitution period.
La mobilité internationale des étudiants au Bresil
The financial protection impact of the public health system and private insurance in Brazil
This research assesses the effectiveness of the Brazilian public health system and of private insurance in Brazil in providing financial protection in health care. The determinants of catastrophic health expenditures are estimated by probit regressions with Heckman selection adjustment controlling for health-care need. Findings show that the public system provides a significant reduction (47%) in the probability of a household having catastrophic health expenditures and that private insurance makes such expenditures more likely by 36%. Recommendations include improvements in the quantity accessibility quality and reliability of public providers more appropriate provision of drugs by the public system and tighter regulation of private insurance.
The political economy of the developmentalist State in Brazil
The study of the political economy of the crisis of the State and its role in the trajectory of Latin American development is an urgent political task which could also contribute to the historical and theoretical debate about industrial development in late evolving capitalist economies.
The ecopolitics of development in Brazil
How a collectivity deals with nature discloses as much about its internal social relations as the other way around. The present inquiry is a prologue to more detailed study of ecopolitics to the study of the political philosophy of relations between human beings and nature exploring the feasibility of integrating the knowledge of the social and of the natural sciences on the interchange between human activities and the cycles of nature. It is also an introduction to the study of a specific type of public policies those that address issues of resource use and conservation and the quality of life especially in the so-called developing countries.
A pragmatic approach to State intervention: The brazilian case
This article examiaes State intervention in the Brazilian economy in an attempt to elucidate why the State ceased to play a decisive part in the country’s development. The primary explanation lies in the cyclical nature of State intervention. In the beginning intervention tended to be very successful especially when the country was launching its industrialization phase. Gradually however the distortions inherent in intervention without some form of market control began to accumulate leading the State into fiscal crisis. The current neoliberal wave and its success in advocating privatizations can be understood in these terms.
The restructuring of the Brazilian industrial groups between 1980 and 1993
This article analyses the strategies applied by the Brazilian industrial groups during the period 1980-1993: that is to say before the Real Plan was put into effect. After some introductory comments regarding the debate on economic groups hypotheses are presented on the evolution of the Brazilian industrial groups in the 1980s and early 1990s; the main elements in the Brazilian economy which conditioned the restructuring strategies of the groups arc identified and these strategies are categorized on the basis of this analysis and of the hypotheses put forward in the introductory section.
Tariffs and the Plano Real In Brazil
This article analyses the economic rationale of Brazil’s tariff policy during the first two years of the Plano Real. To this end a study is made of the changes made in import duties for all the products traded. The tariff reform process in Brazil was begun in 1988 after the old Tariff Act had been in effect for thirty years and represented a marked intensification in the process of trade openness with the definition of a schedule of gradually decreasing tariffs which was further speeded up as from 1990.
Economic growth and financial development in Brazil: A flexible regression model approach
This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and financial development in Brazil. To this end a data panel is constructed of all the Brazilian states for the period 1995–2014 with appropriate control variables and proxies for economic growth and financial development. The relationship is analysed for five different indicators of financial development with a view to capturing its different aspects. Flexible regression modelling determines the direction of this relationship characterizing it as linear or non-linear for each financial development indicator. It is concluded that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is positive and non-linear.
Youth in Brazil: old assumptions and new approaches
The author examines the situation of young people within the framework of the deep changes that have occurred in Brazil in recent decades. There are three aspects that interest her most. First she addresses employment and in this context the evolution of employment and wages and the effect the crisis has on them. In this regard the most outstanding observation is that the urban economically active population has become younger since the 1970s as a result of the increased rate of young people’s participation contrary to conventional assumptions that modernization will have the opposite effect. Second she examines education and stresses that educational levels in Brazil are lagging well behind the observed economic progress. In fact the proportion of young people with no instruction or only a few years of schooling is very large particularly in rural or relatively less-developed areas such as the North-East. Finally she deals with the family which has been greatly affected by changes in other spheres of society and with young people’s relations with their families which has given rise to a complex interplay of solidarity and conflict.
The rural sector in the socio-economic context of Brazil
In this article the author analyses the evolution of Brazil’s rural sector in recent decades and some of its socio-economic effects both in the countryside and in the towns. Although only Brazil is considered here the processes discussed and their repercussions are found to differing degrees in many other countries of Latin America.
The external crisis, adjustment policies and agricultural development in Brazil
At the end of the 1970s the development style based on accelerated industrial grow th and on modernization and expansion of the exports segment of agriculture was looking very vulnerable. This was borne out by the sharply expansionary economic policy adopted in 1979 which generated faster inflation against a background of an increased trade deficit and a very unfavourable external situation.
An overview of social development in Brazil
This paper analyses the structural characteristics and dynamics of social policies in Brazil. Once the Brazilian model of the Welfare State was consolidated under the authoritarian régime in the 1960s and 1970s its meritocratic-individualist features became more acute owing to the socio-economic base of poverty and social exclusion on which it rested. In dynamic terms this model eventually was reproduced according to some clearly defined principles: extreme political and financial centralization; pronounced institutional fragmentation; lack of user participation in the basic decision-making processes; self-financing of social investment; privatization of the public sphere of resources and decision-making; and the clientelist use of the social apparatus. These principles of reproduction partially explain the system’s current degree of social exclusion as well as its increasingly social-assistance bias.
Notes on microelectronic automation in Brazil
The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of the principal investigations conducted in recent years on the socio-economic implications of microelectronics-based automation in Brazil and in particular the investigations carried out by the author himself.
The competitive challenge for Brazilian industry
This article defines the stages of development reached by industries that account for half of Brazil’s total output and identifies the competitive challenges they face including those associated with the country’s industrial policy. Between 1980 and 1994 Brazilian industry experienced persistent macroeconomic instability as the country’s trade liberalization efforts proceeded. By means of a series of adjustments however the sector did manage to adapt to this hostile environment; in fact it not only survived but actually succeeded in maintaining its ability to help cover the existing deficit meet domestic demand and aid the country in achieving balanced linkages with the external economy.
Education and development in Brazil, 1995-2000
This article analyses the education policies applied in Brazil in the six-year period from 1995 through 2000. After noting the need to prepare citizens and the country to face the twenty-first century it addresses the long-standing lag in Brazilian education and the general characteristics of the educational system of that country. It then describes the educational policy options adopted in the period in question which were aimed primarily at the expanding the system while improving its quality and analyses the special features of the programmes in the field of basic education (understood as the education given from the earliest stages up to the end of secondary education); compensatory programmes aimed at keeping students in school; special education; literacy training plans and the education of young people and adults. Next it looks at the training of teachers secondary and techno-professional training and higher education as well as matters connected with the transparency of information on the educational system and the possibilities of evaluating the system the financing of education and the implementation of the corresponding constitutional rules. The article ends with an analysis of the challenges and prospects of education in Brazil noting that the main challenge is the pursuit of increasingly high levels of quality at all levels of education: an objective which is intimately linked with the upgrading of teachers and the financing of the system.
The impact of public investment on private investment in Brazil, 1947-1990
This article analyses the impact of public investment on private investment. Apart from purely ideological aspects two opposing interpretations may be distinguished with regard to the relationship between these variables. The first is that there is competition between public and private investment so that the former “crowds out” the latter. The second is that public investment is complementary to private investment in so far that by generating positive externalities it creates favourable conditions for the latter. In view of the relative scarcity of empirical studies on this matter this study deals with the case of the Brazilian economy in the period from 1947 to 1990. Its main conclusions are that private investment is indeed crowded out by public investment in the short term but in the long term the cointegration vector coefficients indicate that these two variables complement each other.
Financial openness: The experience of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
This article seeks to analyse the effects of globalization on the financial systems of Argentina Brazil and Mexico which were the countries that received most of the foreign investment in the region in the 1990s. This capital was mostly made up of portfolio flows and investments in shares traded on the local financial systems. The movement was not homogeneous in all the countries because of their different degrees of openness and differences in macroeconomic policies. In the case of the portfolio investments the effects of the openness were concentrated in different segments and they therefore had different impacts on the financial systems in question. The recent experience of these countries shows that there is still some room for national economic policies to take action in the context of financial globalization even though their capacity to reduce the perverse effects of financial flows is limited. Foreign firms are observed to be assuming growing importance in the countries studied as a function of the degree of openness of the local financial systems. This tendency is due to the liberalization measures adopted in order to make possible capitalization of the banking systems and competition among banks to find new sources of profits and strengthen their position in globalized markets. Although the predominance of foreign companies has given a more solid capital base to the national banking systems it could have an adverse macro- economic impact especially in Mexico and Brazil which still maintain relatively independent monetary policies.
Brazil: Options for the future
This article analyses the present situation and future prospects of Brazil in the light of the globalization process. In the author’s view the market only generates globally coherent decisions in countries with a high degree of social homogeneity. Thus the greater the social heterogeneity of a country the greater the need for a national development policy. Such a policy should link up the concepts of globalization and social profitability on the economic and political level. Globalization furthers the destructuring of production systems in favour of companies that plan their investments on an international scale and promotes the concentration of political power widening of the productivity gap and the destructuring of cultures. Social profitability on the other hand has to do with the priorities of economic decision-making in national political systems and allows the values of the community as a whole to be taken into account. In a country of continental size with great population mobility the danger of disintegration of the national production system makes it hard to subordinate the channeling of investments to the rationale of the transnational corporations. If globalization is an unavoidable technological imperative then the country has little room for taking its own decisions. The author concludes that in these circumstances countries like Brazil with great natural resources and marked social disparities may disintegrate or slither in the direction of fascist-type authoritarian regimes in response to the growing social tensions. In order to escape from this prospect it is necessary to return to the idea of a national project and make the domestic market once again the dynamic centre of the economy. The greatest difficulty is in reversing the tendency towards income concentration which can only be done through a great social mobilization process.
The impact of gender discrimination on poverty in Brazil
This paper analyses the effects of gender discrimination on poverty in Brazil between 1992 and 2001 using data obtained from the National Household Survey. A counterfactual distribution of per capita household income was estimated based on a hypothetical scenario in which the labour market pays equal wages to men and women in accordance with their qualifications. The results show that when gender discrimination is eliminated the percentage of poor persons tends to decline by an average of 10%. Results were even more striking among the most vulnerable segments of the population such as members of households headed by black women who lack a formal employment contract or union membership.
Bank consolidation and credit concentration in Brazil (1995-2004)
Since monetary stabilization in 1994 bank consolidation has been gathering pace in Brazil as part of a global concentration trend following bank deregulation processes. This article analyses the effect of bank concentration on lending in Brazil in the period 1995-2004 distinguishing two stages and estimating panel data for Brazil’s 27 federative units. The results support the hypothesis that the process of consolidation in the Brazilian banking sector has an adverse effect on lending which mainly harms the less developed regions of the country.
Fiscal federalism in Brazil: An overview
Although the states and municipalities that comprise the Brazilian Federation have considerable autonomy in raising their own tax income and spending public funds this is not the outcome of a planned decentralization process. The improvement in fiscal indicators at the subnational-government level since the promulgation of the Fiscal Responsibility Act has made a major contribution to the success of the country’s macroeconomic stabilization policy. Nonetheless the Federation is seen as a major stumbling block for reform of the tax system. As a contribution to the debate on federative balance in the division of fiscal responsibilities this paper makes a diagnostic study of the federative framework and recent institutional changes and proposes a new federative agenda.
Exchange-rate management in Brazil
This paper examines four hypotheses: (i) in Brazil as in other peripheral countries in the post-crisis context a policy choice appears to have been made for a flexible exchange rate within a currency band (“dirty float”); (ii) the underlying reasons for this policy appear to have more to do with pass-through of exchange-rate variations and precautionary demand for reserves than with the maintenance of a competitive real exchange rate; (iii) in the country’s peculiar situation considerable capital mobility is conjoined with large and liquid financial derivatives markets and a reserves build-up policy that carries a high fiscal cost; (iv) until April 2006 reserves accumulated in much the same way under the floating exchange-rate system as they had under the currency band regime; there have been changes since then owing to the rapid growth of reserves.
Productivity, growth and industrial exports in Brazil
Because productivity is a determinant of comparative advantages over the medium and long terms the relationship between productivity industrial growth and exports of manufactures is coming under increasing scrutiny in studies on development and trade policy. This article analyses that relationship in Brazil where the rise in industrial productivity has been slowing since the mid-1970s.
Development pattern and environment in Brazil
After describing the present situation of ecological transition which is one of the factors in the economic institutional and environmental crisis of present-day society the author tries to identify the main features of the industrial and agricultural expansion of Brazil highlighting the socio-environmental impact of the style of development pursued by that country since the war. On the basis of this diagnostic study and especially of the technical background material prepared for (he drafting of the National Report presented by Brazil at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (Rio de Janeiro June 1992) the author describes the main requirements and components of a sustainable industrial and agricultural development strategy which will permit both proper management of the country’s natural resource endowment and the maintenance of the environmental quality of the Brazilian ecosystem while at the same time ensuring satisfaction of the basic needs of present and future generations.
Transnational corporations and structural changes in industry In Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico
The central focus of this article is on the role played by transnational corporations in the industrial realignment of Argentina Brazil Chile and Mexico between the end of the import substitution stage and the early 1990s. Based on recently published studies dealing with the sweeping changes occurring in Latin America’s manufacturing sector following the region’s economic crisis and liberalization process a computer programme developed by the ECLAC Division of Production Productivity and Management has been used to examine the changes that have taken place in the sector’s production structure (sectoral composition and efficiency) and its linkages with the global economy.
Trade openness and structural change in the Brazilian motor industry
This article aims to classify and analyse the evidence of structural change in the Brazilian motor industry between 1990 and 1996 seeking to relate it with the economic policy measures which had m ost im pact on the sector. The study begins by examining the explosive increase in domestic demand for motor vehicles its determining factors and its main implications especially the achievement of efficient scales of production and the initiation of a wave o f investments which has been further intensified in the last three years.
Brazil: How macroeconomic variables affect consumer confidence
Identifying which macroeconomic variables underlie consumer confidence is an essential step towards implementing sound economic policies. This article contributes to the subject by way of an empirical analysis based on ordinary least squares (ols) generalized method of moments (gmm) and vector autoregression (var) techniques for the case of Brazil. The findings indicate that following a loose fiscal policy which increases public debt and taking measures to increase the volume of lending to the private sector does not represent a good strategy for improving consumer confidence. Moreover the credibility of inflation targeting is a very important driver of consumer expectations. Working to enhance credibility is thus a key step for economies seeking to attain a high level of consumer confidence.
Institutional reform and government coordination in Brazil’s social protection policy
This study now being published posthumously examines Brazil’s recent experience in formulating and implementing government social policies and assesses the prospects for establishing a “social authority” for centralizing and coordinating such policies. It describes the complex pattern of exclusion and vulnerability against which social reforms must be instituted in Brazil. It then goes on to review the social development strategy adopted as part of the Plano Real in 1994 which seeks to restructure the financing outlays and benefits of the social protection system in order to increase its effectiveness coverage and redistributive impact. Finally it analyses the coordination of federal social policies especially at the macropolitical and intergovernmental level drawing special attention to the creation of sectoral chambers and policy integration mechanisms to replace former bureaucratic coordination structures.
An econometric analysis of private-sector investment in Brazil
This article analyses the main determinants of private-sector investment in Brazil during the period 1956-1996 using an empirical model employed in the most recent studies on developing countries. The econometric procedures followed not only take into account the non-stationarity of the data series examined but allow for the possible difficulties involved in treating the conditioning variables as exogenous ones or as policy instruments. The findings –both the longterm equations and the short-term models– reveal the positive impact of the output public investment and financial credit variables and the negative effect of the exchange rate. The results of the weak exogeneity and superexogeneity tests show the importance of credit and public investment as economic policy instruments while obviating Lucas’ critique.
Education and income distribution in urban Brazil, 1976-1996
Despite tremendous macroeconomic instability Brazil’s urban income distributions in 1976 and 1996 appear at first glance deceptively similar. Mean household income per capita was stagnant with a minute accumulated growth of 4.3% over the two decades. The Gini coefficient hovered just above 0.59 in both years and the incidence of poverty (with respect to a poverty line of R$60/month at 1996 prices) was effectively unchanged at 22%. Yet behind this apparent stability a powerful combination of labour market demographic and educational dynamics were at work one effect of which was to generate a substantial increase in extreme urban poverty. Using a micro-simulation-based decomposition methodology which endogenizes labour incomes individual occupational choices and education decisions we show that the distribution of incomes was being affected on the one hand by a decline in average returns to both education and experience and by impoverishing changes in the structure of occupations and labour force participation (all of which tended to increase poverty) and on the other hand by an increase in educational endowments across the distribution and a progressive reduction in dependency ratios (both of which tended to reduce poverty).
Brazil in the 1990s: An economy in transition
The 1990s have been termed “the reform decade” in Brazil because of the significant number of changes which took place in various aspects of that country’s economic and administrative policy. This article aims to systematically set forth the main features of those changes and analyse them in the light of the literature on reforms. It represents an attempt to sum up various studies made on the case of Brazil as part of a regional-level study coordinated by ECLAC. The article finds that in various aspects the results have been in line with those proposed by the literature in question but not everything has turned out as planned or desired. It considers that this disparity of results can be explained by factors ranging from the way the reform process was designed in some cases to the different perceptions by the economic agents of the market signals associated with those changes.
The determinants of recent foreign bank penetration in Brazil
This paper sets out to analyse the determinants of recent foreign bank investments in the Brazilian retail banking market and the strategies of the major European banks in Brazil. Since the recent wave of banking internationalization financial institutions have continued to pursue their existing relationships while seeking greater integration into local markets. The recent influx of European banks into Latin America and Brazil meanwhile has been due to a varied range of factors including bank restructuring in Europe the dynamic of internationalization in the Spanish banking system and the process of market deregulation in the region. The paper also stresses some common and specific features of the major European banks in Brazil. One common feature is that they are large universal banks which have chosen to develop abroad as a business expansion strategy.
The structure and competitiveness of the Brazilian capital goods industry
This article analyses changes in the structure and competitiveness of the Brazilian capital goods industry since the early 1990s and proposes a classification within that industry based on the different industrial segments from which the demand for machinery and equipment derives. Although this industry still accounts for a large share of manufacturing sector value added the production efficiency and international competitiveness of the segments it comprises are quite heterogeneous. The article singles out the segments with the greatest development potential and suggests measures that could be taken in each of them to complement the industrial and technology policy instruments contained in the Production Development Policy officially established in May 2008.
Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
This paper deals with the ways in which the exchange rate regimes of Argentina Brazil and Mexico shaped the macroeconomic performance of those countries over the period 1994-2003. The purpose of the analysis is to draw lessons for Latin American and other countries on whether and how the choice of the exchange rate regime can help sustained growth. As it is impossible to isolate the growth effect of the exchange rate regime in a comparative country study the paper emphasises those macro variables that have been identified in the theoretical and empirical literature as important channels through which the choice of exchange rate regime affects economic performance namely investment trade openness capital flows and fiscal or institutional rigidities
Regional integration and the labour market: The Brazilian case
Brazil is currently engaged in various trade negotiations. One of the aspects that must be taken into account when appraising these negotiations is their impact on employment. This article estimates the effects on employment of two of the main trade agreements in which Brazil may participate based on the labour content of its trade by the workers? skill level. Brazil is a net exporter of labour especially less skilled labour. Our results show that in the three alternatives considered here—the agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union; the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and the entry in force of both of them? nearly 230000 jobs would be generated representing an increase of 0.4% in Brazilian total employment. In aggregate terms FTAA is the option which would generate more jobs. The workers benefiting most from these agreements would be those with the lowest levels of skills.
Pluriactivity and family farming in Brazil: The case of Rio Grande do Sul
This article analyses the phenomenon of pluriactivity in family farming in the south of Brazil based on a research project funded by the Brazilian National Council for Research and Development. The methodology used compares farms whose families live exclusively from agriculture with those whose social reproduction depends also on non-farm activities or who practise “pluriactivity”. On the question of ownership succession we found that the phenomenon studied here does not alter traditional mechanisms of succession and inheritance on the family farm. The farms that are most under threat are those with the lowest incomes whatever their situation in terms of pluriactivity; but the latter is not necessarily a feature of the economically weakest farms.
Heterogeneidad estructural de la agricultura familiar en el Brasil
Un análisis empírico sobre la capacidad de absorción tecnológica de la industria brasileña
Importancia del sector industrial para el desarrollo de la economía brasileña
En el presente artículo basado en los postulados de Kaldor sobre las fases del desarrollo se concluye que —a pesar de haberse modernizado gracias al proceso de apertura económica—la estructura industrial brasileña muestra una evolución caracterizada por el aumento de la participación en la producción de bienes de bajo contenido tecnológico. La tendencia a la apreciación del real al comienzo de la apertura económica influyó positivamente en la modernización del parque tecnológico brasileño pero su prolongación en los últimos años —en el marco de una elevada liquidez internacional para los países emergentes—pone en peligro la evolución del sector manufacturero nacional. Esta podría sufrir un retroceso tecnológico proceso que según el principio de causalidad circular acumulativa afecta negativamente a la capacidad de encadenamiento del sector industrial con los demás sectores de actividad y acentúa la dependencia externa de la economía a largo plazo.
Cambios estructurales en la industria Brasileña (1995-2009)
El objetivo de este artículo consiste en analizar los cambios estructurales en la industria brasileña entre 1995 y 2009 teniendo en cuenta sus relaciones intersectoriales. Para ello se utiliza el análisis de insumo-producto basado en el método de descomposición estructural y el cálculo de los índices de eslabonamiento. Los resultados muestran que la expansión de la demanda final desempeña un papel importante en el crecimiento de la industria en el ámbito del empleo el valor agregado y el valor bruto de producción. Se destaca el crecimiento de la industria intensiva en recursos naturales. Por otra parte se constata el debilitamiento de la demanda intersectorial especialmente en los sectores intensivos en escala y con tecnología diferenciada.
Desempeño de las exportaciones de China y el Brasil hacia América Latina, 1994-2009
En este trabajo se analiza la estructura de las exportaciones del Brasil y de China a los mercados latinoamericanos con el propósito de evaluar las repercusiones de la transformación de China en una potencia mundial y un importante socio comercial de los países de la región. Mediante la estimación de varios indicadores de comercio internacional y competitividad se pudo constatar que las exportaciones chinas en especial las manufacturas están desplazando a las brasileñas en el mercado regional lo que constituye una posible amenaza para el Brasil.
Brasil: Crisis financiera internacional y políticas anticíclicas
En este trabajo se evalúa la eficacia de las medidas anticíclicas adoptadas por el gobierno brasileño para mitigar los efectos de la crisis de las hipotecas de alto riesgo. En este contexto se analizan las repercusiones de las políticas monetaria fiscal y crediticia en algunos de los principales agregados macroeconómicos. El análisis empírico reveló que la política crediticia expansionista fue un factor decisivo para aumentar el consumo de las familias y el producto agregado durante el período de la crisis. Mientras que la política monetaria expansionista también fue importante para incrementar el producto agregado durante dicho período los gastos relativos a las inversiones no resultaron sensibles a las políticas anticíclicas.
Brasil: Mecanismos de transmisión de la política fiscal. Una investigación empírica
El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar empíricamente si la relación entre la deuda y el producto interno bruto (pib) generó efectos en variables reales y nominales como la demanda de moneda la tasa de interés nominal la inversión y la brecha del producto en el período de enero de 1995 a marzo de 2008. Específicamente se procura determinar los canales de transmisión de la política fiscal y establecer si esta fue activa o pasiva en ese período. Se concluye que existen pruebas empíricas de que la política fiscal fue activa y la política monetaria pasiva elementos que caracterizan a un modelo no ricardiano.
La economía del crecimiento impulsado por la demanda. Teoría y evidencia respecto del Brasil
Se describe la teoría del crecimiento impulsado por la demanda y se aporta evidencia de la existencia de un modelo semejante en la economía brasileña. A partir de la metodología desarrollada por Atesoglu (2002) se realizaron pruebas econométricas para corroborar la hipótesis de que la economía brasileña se basa en el crecimiento promovido por la demanda. Los resultados indican que prácticamente el 85% de la tasa de crecimiento del pib real en el período 1990-2005 se explica por variables de la demanda principalmente las exportaciones y el consumo público. Dado que la actual crisis fiscal elimina la posibilidad de expansión fiscal la única opción para el Brasil es adoptar un modelo de crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones. En este artículo se demuestra también que el mantenimiento de un tipo de cambio real (TCR) devaluado es un factor importante para el incremento de las exportaciones en países en desarrollo como el Brasil.
Tecnología, comercio y calificación en el Brasil: Evidencias de datos microeconómicos
En los años noventa el Brasil se destacó por el rápido proceso de liberalización comercial que desde el año 2000 incrementó con fuerza las exportaciones e importaciones aumentando sustancialmente la demanda relativa de mano de obra calificada. Se exploran aquí los posibles vínculos entre estos dos fenómenos paralelos concentrándose en la posible repercusión de la tecnología nacional la complementariedad del capital y la apertura comercial en la demanda relativa de mano de obra calificada en las empresas manufactureras brasileñas. Se recurre a una nueva base de datos de panel de dichas empresas del período 1997-2005. La evidencia empírica confirma que la tecnología influyó en la decisión de incrementar la calificación de estas empresas. De hecho las estimaciones permiten concluir que la tecnología nacional y la formación de capital son complementos para los trabajadores calificados y los bienes de capital importados actúan como un componente del comercio que incentiva la calificación.
Municipios brasileños: Economías de aglomeración y niveles de desarrollo en 1997 y 2007
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre las economías de aglomeración de tipo Marshall-Arrow-Romer (economías de especialización) y de tipo Jacobs-Porter (economías de diversificación) y el desarrollo desigual de los municipios brasileños estimado según la productividad del trabajo (medido por el salario medio del trabajador). Para ello se construyeron medidas de especialización con respecto a los años 1997 y 2007. Sobre la base de esos datos se probó empíricamente la relación entre los índices de especialización y diversificación industrial y la productividad mediante regresiones de muestras finitas que permiten captar la heterogeneidad de los datos. Los resultados confirman la dualidad entre las regiones norte-nordeste y sur-sudestecentrooeste ampliamente documentada en otras investigaciones. No obstante es necesario analizar esa dualidad teniendo en cuenta que algunas ciudades no se inscriben en la misma dinámica de la región a que pertenecen.
Brasil: Cambio estructural y crecimiento con restricción de balanza de pagos
Se sostiene que las diferencias en las tasas de crecimiento del producto se vinculan a las diferencias en las elasticidades-renta que a su vez son determinadas por el grado de intensidad tecnológica de la producción nacional. Para corroborar esta hipótesis se efectuaron pruebas estadísticas. Se estimaron las elasticidades hipotéticas a fin de demostrar su validez en el caso brasileño: i) básica ii) ampliada con flujos de capitales y iii) implícita. Se emplearon técnicas de cointegración y un vector de corrección de errores en las estimaciones de las elasticidades reales para cada categoría tecnológica de producto de la pauta comercial brasileña. Los resultados se corroboraron mediante la investigación de funciones de impulso-respuesta y la descomposición de los errores finales de predicción confirmándose que los bienes de mayor intensidad tecnológica presentan una elasticidadrenta más elevada. Así según la ley de Thirlwall una mayor producción nacional de esos bienes impulsaría el crecimiento.
El mercado del biodiésel y las políticas públicas: Comparación de los casos argentino y brasileño
En este trabajo se analiza comparativamente el desarrollo del mercado del biodiésel en la Argentina y el Brasil atendiendo a los aspectos institucionales de la formulación de la política y sus repercusiones. El estudio se efectuó mediante un análisis del proceso de formulación de las políticas junto con una discusión sobre su impacto al examinar la información estadística. Entre los resultados se destacan las divergencias en los objetivos de la política en ambos países. En el caso argentino ha sido relevante el problema del abastecimiento de gasóleo mientras que en el Brasil resaltan los objetivos de promoción de la agricultura familiar. Asimismo en el caso brasileño se observan la importancia de la empresa Petróleo Brasileiro (PETROBRAS) y algunas deficiencias en el alcance de los objetivos; mientras que en el caso argentino se aprecia que el mercado externo continúa siendo el motor de la industria.
Percepción y preocupación ambiental en distintas regiones metropolitanas del Brasil: eslabones perdidos y evidencia adicional
Brasil: Diferencias de productividad en las empresas según sector industrial
En este artículo se intenta explicar cómo el proceso de innovación está determinado por factores externos a la empresa cuya productividad se calcula y analiza en función de los factores sistémicos de innovación. Con ese fin se presentan las competencias internas de las empresas para innovar que explican la variación de su productividad por sector. La productividad de las empresas industriales se construye mediante el método del residuo de Abramovitz (de la contabilidad social) denominándosela productividad total de los factores (ptf) así como residuo de Solow. Sin embargo se evitan algunos problemas teóricos como el efecto de escala de agregación y de la heterogeneidad de los factores considerados en el modelo. La ptf estimada de las empresas industriales brasileñas se explica por sus competencias internas y la innovación de producto en el sector de la empresa constatándose que la innovación depende de las instituciones localizadas en la industria.
Brasil: ¿Cómo reaccionan los mercados financieros ante los anuncios de política monetaria del banco central en un esquema de metas de inflación?
Los anuncios del banco central son trascendentales para guiar las expectativas. Empero la investigación correspondiente con respecto a los países que emergen es escasa. Dado que el Brasil es un importante país emergente con políticas de fijación de objetivos de inflación se analiza aquí la influencia de la política monetaria y los anuncios del banco central en la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés. Mediante el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) y el modelo de autorregresión vectorial (VAR) se examina la dirección de las tasas de interés al ser afectadas por los anuncios del banco central y la política monetaria. Puesto que los agentes económicos analizan las actas de las reuniones del Comité de Política Monetaria la política y los anuncios mencionados influyen poderosamente en la formación de expectativas sobre las tasas de interés para diferentes plazos en el Brasil.
Brasil, 1981-2013: Efectos del crecimiento económico y de la desigualdad de los ingresos en la pobreza
En este artículo se analizan los efectos del crecimiento económico y la desigualdad de los ingresos en la pobreza del Brasil entre 1981 y 2013. Para ello se utiliza un modelo de panel dinámico mediante el método generalizado de momentos de dos pasos desarrollado por Blundell y Bond (1998) para tres períodos. El primero que comprende a los otros dos va de 1981 a 2013 mientras que el segundo y el tercero corresponden a las etapas anterior y posterior a la implementación del Plan Real (1981-1994 y 1995-2013 respectivamente). Los resultados muestran que para combatir la pobreza en el Brasil las políticas de crecimiento económico que promueven simultáneamente el aumento de los ingresos y la reducción de las disparidades son preferibles a las que priorizan solo el aumento de los ingresos medios. Se observa también un crecimiento a favor de los pobres en el período posterior al Plan Real.
Más allá de los controles de capital: Regulación de los mercados de derivados en moneda extranjera en la República de Corea y el Brasil después de la crisis financiera mundial
Elasticidades ingreso y desigualdad de la pobreza en áreas urbanas y rurales de los estados brasileños: Un enfoque espacial
Esta investigación busca verificar el valor de las elasticidades ingreso y desigualdad de la pobreza en las áreas urbanas y rurales de los estados brasileños. Una metodología con datos de panel capaz de abarcar los efectos espaciales mediante un modelo de rezago espacial permitiría verificar la existencia de desbordamientos espaciales de la pobreza en las situaciones censales estudiadas. Los cambios en el crecimiento y las desigualdades causan desbordamientos espaciales de la proporción de pobres en las áreas urbanas brasileñas esto no existe en las áreas rurales. Al verificar la existencia de efectos indirectos espaciales en las áreas urbanas se muestra que las medidas de lucha contra la pobreza en esas zonas deben aplicarse a nivel nacional. En las áreas rurales la inexistencia de efectos indirectos espaciales de la proporción de pobres permite la aplicación de políticas públicas de lucha contra la pobreza rural tanto a nivel estatal como nacional.
Los determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa en el Brasil: Análisis empírico del período 2001-2013
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar los determinantes del flujo de inversión extranjera directa (IED) hacia el Brasil entre 2001 y 2013. Para ello se empleó un modelo de vectores de corrección de errores (VEC) para el análisis de la función de largo plazo y de la función de impulso-respuesta. Los resultados indican que los niveles de actividad económica salario y productividad se relacionan positivamente con el ingreso de inversión extranjera directa. Esto indica que al orientarse hacia el mercado brasileño los inversionistas siguen una estrategia de búsqueda de mercados y de eficiencia. Aunque menos relevantes la estabilidad de la economía nacional y el tipo de cambio también resultaron estadísticamente significativos para el ingreso de IED.
Brasil: localización industrial y encadenamientos sectoriales, el caso de la industria automovilística
Este trabajo tiene como objetivo presentar un análisis de la distribución espacial de la industria automotriz en el Brasil entre 1995 y 2011 en relación con sus diversas categorías económicas y mostrar sus encadenamientos sectoriales mediante las matrices interregionales de insumo-producto. A partir del cálculo del coeficiente de localización (QLij) de dicho período se constató que la tercera ola de inversiones iniciada en la segunda mitad de los años noventa logró producir de hecho una ligera desconcentración espacial de este sector en la economía nacional. El cálculo del coeficiente de asociación geográfica (CAik) de diferentes años indicó una pequeña disminución pese a que se mantuvo un nivel significativo de concentración lo que sugiere que la producción de vehículos es un proceso bastante integrado con otras actividades económicas. Esta integración se corroboró especialmente con respecto a la compra de insumos (efectos hacia atrás) en todas las regiones aquí analizadas.
Ciclos económicos, expectativas e inflación en el Brasil: Análisis a partir de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana
En este estudio se analiza la dinámica reciente de la inflación brasileña considerando distintas hipótesis de expectativas para observar la manera en que un posible comportamiento discrecional de la autoridad monetaria puede interferir en las expectativas con miras al futuro de los agentes y la forma en que esa interferencia puede afectar la respuesta de la inflación a su componente inercial y a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos en el marco de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana. Para ello se realizan estimaciones de dicha curva y de su versión híbrida con el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) consistente en presencia de heterocedasticidad y autocorrelación. Los resultados sugieren que en una hipótesis de menor previsibilidad de los agentes la inflación será más sensible a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos cuanto mayor sea su componente inercial.
Exportaciones del sector automotor brasileño al Mercado Común del Sur: ¿Desviación de comercio o reducción de costos?
El sector automotor es uno de los sectores donde más ha crecido el comercio entre los miembros del mercosur. Aquí se examina la eventual desviación de comercio en ese sector durante el período 1991-2010 suponiendo la reducción de costos de los productos dada la expansión del mercado. El análisis se basa en los conceptos de reducción de costos y supresión de comercio acuñados por Corden (1972) con que se captan los efectos de las economías de escala. Para verificar si el bloque evoluciona de acuerdo con las ventajas comparativas se utilizan los índices de orientación regional y de ventajas comparativas reveladas en forma conjunta. Los resultados sugieren un aumento de la eficiencia en el caso de los productos del sector automotor cuyas exportaciones desde el Brasil al mercosur fueron más dinámicas pues el mercado ampliado y relativamente protegido permitió aprovechar las economías de escala características de la industria automotriz.
Productividad agropecuaria: Reducción de la brecha productiva entre el Brasil y los Estados Unidos de América
The economics of demand-led growth. Theory and evidence for Brazil
This article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002) econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real gdp in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion Brazil’s only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.
Brazil: Structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth
This article argues that differences in gdp growth rates are related to differences in income-elasticities; and that these in turn depend on the technological intensity of domestic production. Statistical tests were conducted to verify this hypothesis; and the following hypothetical elasticities were estimated to demonstrate its validity for the Brazilian economy: (i) basic; (ii) expanded with capital flows; and (iii) implicit. Co-integration techniques were used in conjunction with vector error correction to estimate real elasticities for each technological category of output in the Brazilian trade matrix. The results obtained were corroborated by analysing impulse-response functions and the decomposition of the forecast error variance which confirmed that goods of higher technological intensity have higher income-elasticities. Thus according to Thirlwall’s Law increasing the domestic production of such goods should promote growth.
The biodiesel market and public policy: A comparative analysis of Argentina and Brazil
This article presents a comparative case study of the institutional aspects of policymaking and the impacts that this has had on the development of the biodiesel market in Argentina and Brazil. The study draws upon an analysis of the policymaking process and based on the available statistical evidence discusses how this has influenced the market’s development. Its findings underscore the differences between the two countries’ policy objectives. In Argentina issues relating to the supply of petrodiesel have been a crucial factor whereas in Brazil the promotion of family farming has been a major objective. In Brazil Petrobras has played a significant role but some of the country’s policy objectives in this area have not been fully met. In Argentina the external market continues to be the driving force behind this industry.
Brazil: An empirical study on fiscal policy transmission
This article sets out to empirically determine whether the ratio between debt and gross domestic product (gdp) affected real and nominal variables such as the demand for money the nominal interest rate investment and the output gap between January 1995 and March 2008. The specific aim is to identify fiscal-policy transmission channels and decide whether this policy was active or passive in the period in question. The study finds empirical evidence that fiscal policy was active and monetary policy passive —features that characterize a non-Ricardian model.
Brazil: The international financial crisis and counter-cyclical policies
This article evaluates the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical measures adopted by the Brazilian government to mitigate the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis by analysing the repercussions of monetary fiscal and credit policies on several of the main macroeconomic aggregates. The empirical analysis showed that expansionary credit policy was decisive for increasing family consumption and aggregate output during the crisis. While expansionary monetary policy also helped increase aggregate production during that period investment expenditure did not respond to counter-cyclical policies.
Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation-targeting regime: the case of Brazil
Central bank communications are important for guiding expectations. For emerging countries however research on this issue is scarce. Because Brazil represents an important emerging country under inflation targeting this paper studies the influence of monetary policy and central bank communications on the term structure of interest rates in Brazil. The study uses ordinary least squares (ols) generalized method of moments (gmm) and vector autoregresion (var) to examine the direction taken by interest rates when affected by central bank communications and monetary policy. The study finds evidence that because economic agents analyse the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meetings monetary policy and central bank communications significantly influence the process of expectations formation for interest rates with different maturities in Brazil.
Keynesian economic policies: Reflections on the Brazilian economy, 1995-2009
As is well known Keynes proposed deliberate government action particularly the implementation of economic policies to coordinate and stabilize the dynamic of monetary economies. In that context this article aims to retrieve and describe the Keynes’ economic-policy prescriptions specifically monetary fiscal and exchangerate policies and to analyse the Brazilian economy’s performance in terms of the operating rationale of Keynesian economic policy in the period 1995-2009. The study’s findings show that the economic policies implemented following the Real Plan did not keep the Brazilian economy on a sustained and stable growth path in the face of the endogenous and exogenous economic crises that occurred throughout the period. Moreover its conclusions question the Keynesian credentials of the countercyclical policies implemented by the Brazilian economic authorities since the 2007-2008 international crisis.
An empirical analysis of technology absorption capacity of the Brazilian industry
The structural heterogeneity of family farming in Brazil
The Brazilian sugar and alcohol sector: Evolution, productive chain and innovations
The sugar and alcohol sector is one of the fastest growing and developing areas of the Brazilian economy although some specialists worry unduly that sugarcane cultivation will replace food-crop plantations. This article analyses how Brazil and the State of São Paulo became major players in that sector and expounds a theory on the relevance of innovations for increasing competitiveness productivity and the number of byproducts. The study analyses global value chains to gauge their importance and gain a better understanding of the sugar and alcohol sector. It shows that the value chain is under national control unlike most other chains in which Brazil participates. Lastly the article highlights the most recent innovations in the sector which reflect a drive to improve competitiveness.
Brazilian municipalities: Agglomeration economies and development levels in 1997 and 2007
This article sets out to analyse the relation between agglomeration economies —both the Marshall-Arrow-Romer type (economies of specialization) and the Jacobs-Porter type (economies of diversification)— and the unequal development of Brazilian municipalities as estimated by labour productivity (measured by the average wage). To that end measures of specialization were constructed for 1997 and 2007 and the data were used to test the relation between the industrial specialization and diversification indices and productivity using finite-mixture regressions to capture the heterogeneity of the data. The results confirm the duality existing between the north-northeast and south-southeast-centre-west regions of Brazil which has been widely documented in other research. Nonetheless this duality needs to be analysed further because some cities do not reflect the general dynamic of their region.
Exports from the Brazilian automotive sector to the southern common market: Trade diversion or cost reduction?
The automotive sector is one of the sectors in which trade between mercosur countries has grown most strongly. This article examines the possibility that trade diversion occurred in that sector during the period 1991-2010 assuming that product costs fell as a result of market expansion. The analysis is based on the concepts of “cost reduction” and “trade suppression” coined by Corden (1972) which capture the effects of economies of scale. Indices of regional orientation and revealed comparative advantages are used in combination to assess whether the trade bloc is evolving in line with comparative advantages. The results suggest efficiency gains for automotive-sector products exports of which from Brazil to mercosur grew more vigorously because the expanded and relatively protected market made it possible to exploit the economies of scale that are characteristic of the automotive industry.
Agricultural productivity: Closing the gap between Brazil and the United States
A comparative analysis of productivity in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries
This article analyses productivity trends in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries between 1995 and 2009 a period in which international competition intensified sharply. A total of 14 manufacturing industries are considered using two methods based on: (i) the Leontief (1951) model to measure the consumption of intermediate goods used in production; and (ii) the analysis of total factor productivity (tfp). The studies performed show that manufacturing trends have diverged in the two countries. In Mexico an increased need for imported goods and services was offset by a reduction in domestic goods and service requirements and an increase in the tfp of production. In the case of Brazil the fact that manufactured goods markets are more isolated from foreign trade seems to have contributed to a weak productivity performance.
Structural changes in Brazilian industry (1995-2009)
This article analyses the structural changes that took place in Brazilian industry between 1995 and 2009 by considering their intersectoral relations through input-output analysis using the structural decomposition method and the calculation of linkage indices. The results show that the expansion of final demand plays a key role in industry growth in terms of employment value added and gross production value. Natural-resource-intensive industry has grown particularly strongly. Another finding is that intersectoral demand has weakened particularly in scale-intensive sectors that use differentiated technology.
The determinants of foreign direct investment in Brazil: Empirical analysis for 2001-2013: Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira, Jorge Augusto Dias Samsonescu and Divanildo Triches
This article aims to analyse the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Brazil between 2001 and 2013. It uses a vector error correction (VEC) model to analyse both the long-term function and the impulse-response function. The results show that levels of economic activity wages and productivity are positively related to FDI inflows which means that investors pursue market-seeking and efficiency-seeking strategies when targeting the Brazilian market. Although less important the stability of the national economy and the exchange rate also proved statistically significant in explaining FDI inflows.
Technical progress in GDP production and CO2 emissions in Brazil: 1970-2012
In this study technical progress is analysed in terms of its influence on the mix of inputs of labour capital and energy that go into the production of gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results of this analysis show that the Brazilian economy exhibited a Marx-biased pattern of technical progress during the period under study. Within the framework of this overall pattern however three different phases of technical progress in Brazil can be identified. Between 1970 and 1980 a Marx-biased pattern was observed followed by the stagnation of technical progress between 1980 and 2003. In the years from 2003 to 2012 the pattern of technical change was Harrod-neutral.
Economic growth and income concentration and their effects on poverty in Brazil
We use panel data for Brazilian states from 1995 to 2009 to analyse the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty change in Brazil seeking to evaluate the Bourguignon (2003) hypothesis that the more unequal a country is the less effective economic growth will be at reducing poverty. To this end we estimate poverty elasticities relative to income and inequality specifying two dynamic econometric models estimated via the generalized method of moments (GMM) system developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). The model-estimated results prompt the conclusion that the income growth effect on poverty reduction is smaller when the initial development level is low. The same is found when the initial inequality level is high. Therefore regions with a low initial development level high initial inequality or both present less favourable conditions for reducing poverty through income growth.
Spatial distribution of the Brazilian national system of innovation: An analysis for the 2000s
Regional inequality is an intrinsic characteristic of economic underdevelopment. Some structuralists have attributed this feature to the unequal distribution of the benefits of technical progress among subnational regions. This process is thought to be related to the spatial distribution of the components of the national innovation system which is such that the available opportunities for taking advantage of the benefits of technical progress differ from one region in Brazil to the next. This study examines the distribution of science technology and innovation assets among different Brazilian microregions in the years from 2000 to 2010. Its findings indicate that the territorial scope of the national innovation system expanded during the period under study to encompass a larger number of microregions and thus has come to exhibit a greater degree of spatial continuity. This process occurred in parallel with a trend towards a greater regional deconcentration of income in the country.
The great divide: Economic complexity and development paths in Brazil and the Republic of Korea
This paper uses the product space methodology to gain new perspectives on the relationship between economic complexity and economic development illustrated by case studies of Brazil and the Republic of Korea. It takes import data as an indicator of revealed comparative disadvantage to highlight the relevance of the local market. Product space networks for each decade between 1960 and 2000 are then presented revealing the significant changes in each country’s position in the international division of labour. Lastly a structural development index is used to measure economic development in each country. The revealed comparative advantage and disadvantage indices indicate that while both countries had similar levels of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the early 1960s the Republic of Korea saw faster growth than Brazil thanks to its early specialization in more complex technology-intensive goods.
Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: A New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component. Keywords
Productivity differencesin Brazilian manufacturing firms, by industrial sector
This article attempts to explain how the innovation process is determined by factors external to the firm whose productivity is calculated and analysed in terms of systemic innovation factors. To that end it describes the internal innovation capabilities of firms which explain variations in their productivity across sectors. The productivity of manufacturing firms is constructed using the Abramovitz residual method (social accounting) referred to as total factor productivity (tfp) or the Solow residual. Nonetheless a number of theoretical problems are avoided such as the effect of scale aggregation and the heterogeneity of the factors considered in the model. The tfp of Brazilian manufacturing firms is explained by their internal capabilities and by product innovation in the sector to which they belong which shows that innovation depends on institutions located within the industry.
Regional integration and export diversification in MERCOSUR: The case of Argentina and Brazil
This article analyses the effects of Argentina’s trade with its MERCOSUR partners in two key periods: 1997/1998 and 2005/2006 —before and after the crises suffered by the economies of this trade zone. The impact of trade on the regionalization of exports and imports was measured by the Regional Orientation Index which was used by Yeats in his study of these countries for an earlier time period. Our conclusions show that the results obtained by Yeats are inconsistent with the later reality in Argentina and Brazil since MERCOSUR enabled them to develop learning processes and grow their trade with countries outside the bloc. This positive impact was mainly felt in Brazil however and less in the other partners particularly Uruguay and Paraguay —owing to the underlying asymmetries between these economies. As a result the largest MERCOSUR country has been the main beneficiary of integration thus far.
The footwear industry in Vale do Sinos (Brazil): Competitive adjustment in a labour-intensive sector
This article analyses the production relocation strategies deployed by firms in the Vale do Sinos footwear cluster in Rio Grande do Sul in response to competitive pressures from other parts of the world mainly Asia. The hypothesis proposed here is that as the sector competes mainly in terms of product price the factors that most directly influence that variable —such as wages the exchange rate and tax and financial incentives— have affected the industry’s spatial distribution. The study’s main conclusions are that since 1990 footwear production has been migrating to other parts of Brazil and firms have been seeking other sources of competitiveness.
Development banks in the financial-liberalization era: The case of BNDES in Brazil
This article considers the potential repercussions of financial liberalization on the role played by development banks particularly the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) as the main source of funding for Brazil’s economic development process. Although liberalization can foster financial development the latter tends to respond incompletely to the needs of economic development in less developed countries such as Brazil. Analysis of the Brazilian case seems to confirm this thesis and shows that BNDES not only preserved but actually expanded its position on the domestic market in 1990-2006 despite the financial-liberalization policy that was implemented in that period.
The performance of Chinese and Brazilian exports to Latin America, 1994-2009
This article analyses the structure of Brazilian and Chinese exports to Latin American markets for the purpose of evaluating the repercussions of China’s emergence as a global power and major trading partner of the countries of the region. An estimation of several international trade and competitiveness indicators shows that Chinese exports particularly manufactured goods are displacing Brazilian products on the regional market; and this poses a potential threat to Brazil.
Technology, trade and skills in Brazil: Evidence from micro data
Brazil was characterized by a rapid process of trade liberalization in the 1990s resulting in a dramatic increase in the volumes of exports and imports since the year 2000. Over the same period the relative demand for skilled labour has increased substantially. To investigate whether these two simultaneous phenomena are linked is the purpose of this paper. More particularly this study focuses on the possible impact of domestic technology capital complementarity and trade openness on the relative demand for skilled labour in Brazilian manufacturing firms using a unique panel database of Brazilian manufacturing firms over the period from 1997 to 2005. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that technology played a role in determining the skill upgrading of Brazilian manufacturing firms. Indeed the estimations show that domestic technology and capital formation are complements for skilled workers and that imported capital goods clearly act as a skill-enhancing component of trade.
The importance of the manufacturing sector for Brazilian economic development
This article based on Kaldor’s model of the stages of development concludes that despite having modernized thanks to the economic liberalization process the evolution of Brazil’s industrial structure has increased the share of low-technology goods in the production matrix. The trend appreciation of the real in the initial phase of economic liberalization was positive for modernizing Brazil’s technology stock; but its continuation in recent years when there has been ample international liquidity for emerging countries threatens the development of the national manufacturing sector. This sector could suffer a technological setback which according to the principle of circular cumulative causation diminishes its capacity to forge links with other sectors of activity and accentuates the economy’s long-term external dependency.
Industrial location and sectoral linkages: the case of the Brazilian automotive industry
Brazil, 1981-2013: The effects of economic growth and income inequality on poverty
This study analyses the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty in Brazil in the years from 1981 to 2013. A dynamic panel model was used estimated by the twostep generalized method-of-moments system developed by Blundell-Bond (1998) in order to analyse three scenarios: the first corresponds to the entire period covered by this study (i.e. 1981-2013); the second encompasses the years from 1981 to 1994 (the period leading up to the Real Plan); and the third is the period from 1995 to 2013 (the years following the implementation of the Real Plan). The results indicate that economic growth policies that promote an increase in income in conjunction with a reduction in income disparities are more effective in combating poverty in Brazil than those that focus only on raising mean income levels. The findings also point to the existence of a pro-poor form of growth in the period following the Real Plan.