Chile
Chile: Subsidios, crédito y déficit habitacional
El presente artículo tiene los siguientes objetivos: analizar los efectos del subsidio habitacional en el acceso al crédito y la inversión inmobiliaria y estudiar la influencia de esas relaciones en la experiencia chilena. Luego de examinar los sistemas de financiamiento y subsidios en Chile, se propone un modelo teórico que permita analizar los efectos de los subsidios en el crédito habitacional y el equilibrio del mercado inmobiliario. Ese modelo aporta nuevos puntos de vista sobre el papel de la política de subsidios y la estructura en que se funda la investigación empírica. El análisis econométrico corrobora las dos principales propuestas teóricas, a saber: el acceso al subsidio aumenta la probabilidad de que una familia obtenga crédito y reduce el número de familias en situación de déficit habitacional. Los resultados econométricos también ayudan a interpretar la evolución del déficit en Chile.
Una mirada al auge exportador chileno
Desde 1975, las exportaciones chilenas crecieron a una tasa media anual del 6% en términos reales. Este trabajo se concentra en los datos de la industria manufacturera a nivel de planta del período 1990-2007, para investigar la relación entre las exportaciones, la dinámica de las plantas y la productividad. Las conclusiones son congruentes con las predicciones de las nuevas corrientes teóricas basadas en la heterogeneidad empresarial y comercial. Primero, el 64,4% del incremento total de las exportaciones corresponde a los exportadores nuevos, descontados los exportadores fallidos. Este resultado surge al combinar una mayor proporción de plantas exportadoras, una creciente proporción de la producción exportada y el crecimiento de las ventas totales. Segundo, la productividad y las exportaciones acompañaron al auge chileno; estas últimas se correlacionaron positivamente con el incremento de la productividad dentro de la planta y con la reasignación de factores de producción entre plantas para aumentarla.
Equidad tributaria horizontal del impuesto a la renta en Chile
En este trabajo se estiman los efectos distributivos de la eliminación del tratamiento diferencial de ingresos empresariales respecto de los ingresos individuales en el sistema tributario chileno, así como de eliminar la principal exención vigente en el impuesto al ingreso de las personas: la del ahorro previsional voluntario. En cuanto a esta exención, los resultados muestran que si bien a quienes favorece son mayoritariamente personas de más altos ingresos, su eliminación no aumenta la progresividad del impuesto al ingreso. En el caso de la eliminación del tratamiento tributario favorable a los ingresos corporativos, los efectos distributivos son importantes en magnitud y el impuesto al ingreso se hace significativamente más progresivo. En general, los resultados evidencian que el impuesto al ingreso en Chile es menos progresivo que lo que parece y que hay espacio para que tenga un papel redistributivo relevante en la disminución de la desigualdad en el ingreso.
Chile: ¿Es eficaz la patente por no uso de derechos de aguas?
En este trabajo se examina si la patente por no uso de derechos de aprovechamiento de aguas implementada en Chile en 2005 ha incentivado la utilización de las aguas sin uso. Se analizan descriptivamente dos comparaciones: patentes cobradas respecto de recaudadas y precio de mercado de derechos comparado con el cobro de patente. Se observa que en los sucesivos procesos de cobro de patentes, la recaudación aumentó del 67% en 2007 al 81,4% en 2009 respecto del total cobrado. Además, se determinó que varios años de pago de patente equivalen al precio de mercado de los derechos de aguas. Se concluye que la patente no ha sido eficaz en desincentivar el no uso, puesto que los propietarios tienden a pagar lo cobrado para no perder derechos cuyos precios de mercado superan a los de las patentes. Asimismo, se sugieren algunas mejoras al diseño legal del instrumento.
Chile: Elaboración de un modelo de equilibrio general computable y su aplicación a la región del Bío Bío
En este trabajo se describe la elaboración de un modelo de equilibrio general computable regional aplicable al análisis de políticas de desarrollo y perturbaciones económicas relevantes con respecto a regiones específicas de Chile. Luego se genera una aplicación para la región del Bío Bío, que revela que el efecto de la actual crisis pesquera —provocada por la escasez del jurel—redundaría en una mayor especialización de la estructura productiva en las industrias de la madera y la celulosa. Además, se determina que sectores de escaso encadenamiento productivo con el sector pesquero se ven profundamente afectados a través de canales indirectos, difíciles de identificar sin un enfoque de equilibrio general.
Determinantes de la concentración de la propiedad en el mercado de valores chileno
En este artículo se analizan econométricamente los determinantes de la concentración de la propiedad en el mercado de valores chileno, con especial atención en los efectos de la Ley de Ofertas Públicas de Adquisición de Acciones. Si bien esta ley cumple su objetivo central, el mecanismo de oferta pública de adquisición aumenta la concentración de la propiedad, principalmente debido a la figura de la “oferta pública de adquisición residual” obligatoria. Además, se encontraron casos significativos de respuestas contradictorias entre el accionista mayoritario y los dos mayores accionistas siguientes, que deberían servir de advertencia en el momento de efectuar comparaciones internacionales sobre la base de una medida común de concentración de la propiedad, que no toma en cuenta las estructuras de propiedad características de los mercados de América Latina. Estos aspectos deben considerarse a fin de lograr las metas regulatorias que persiguen los proyectos de ley de protección de los accionistas minoritarios.
Ciclo económico y minería del cobre en Chile
Chile: Pensión anticipada, impaciencia y aversión al riesgo
Aproximadamente un tercio de los chilenos se pensiona de manera anticipada. Al acercarse a la edad de jubilación, los individuos están más conscientes del estado de salud propio de esa edad, lo que reduce la incertidumbre sobre la calidad de vida futura y puede provocar una mayor impaciencia relativa. En este artículo se analiza teóricamente cómo la esperanza de vida futura afecta a la impaciencia relativa y logra inducir una mayor probabilidad de pensión anticipada. Los resultados empíricos para Chile muestran que a mayor esperanza de vida futura, menor es la probabilidad de pensión anticipada. Además, se estudia teóricamente cómo la aversión al riesgo exacerba la impaciencia relativa, debido a la incertidumbre de poder disfrutar de una buena calidad vida en los años futuros. Los resultados empíricos muestran una correlación positiva entre aversión al riesgo y pensión anticipada a través del mecanismo de la esperanza de vida.
Santiago de chile: ¿ciudad de ciudades? Desigualdades sociales en zonas de mercado laboral local
El propósito del presente artículo es delimitar y caracterizar la estructura urbana de Santiago de Chile a partir de la relación entre los lugares de residencia y de trabajo de sus habitantes, que conforman zonas de mercado laboral local. Se exponen los criterios y procedimientos metodológicos empleados, de acuerdo con los cuales se establecen estas zonas y se las describe sobre la base de esta delimitación funcional, a fin de determinar en qué medida condicionan las desigualdades sociales en la ciudad. Se analizan en términos espaciales la desigualdad de ingresos, el acceso a la educación y la composición de las clases sociales.
La terciarización en Chile. Desigualdad cultural y estructura ocupacional
La terciarización, o transición hacia economías de servicios con un creciente protagonismo de las ocupaciones no manuales, ha sido destacada como un fenómeno central de las sociedades contemporáneas. Frente al supuesto hundimiento numérico y político de los sectores obreros tradicionales, la clase media ha aparecido como la clase social protagónica de las últimas décadas. Vinculada a esta comprensión de la evolución de la sociedad, se ha manifestado un creciente interés por formas de diferenciación social distintas a la ocupacional de las sociedades industriales, entre ellas la cultural. En este trabajo se reconstruye brevemente este debate, y se muestra que si bien pudiera existir un crecimiento de ocupaciones no manuales, y con ello podría pensarse que habría un progresivo avance hacia una sociedad de clase media, hay importantes hallazgos que dificultan simplemente aceptar la afirmación de que Chile se ha convertido en tal tipo de sociedad mesocrática.
Políticas de desarrollo económico local en las municipalidades de chile: más allá del asistencialismo
¿En qué medida las políticas de desarrollo económico local se circunscriben en Chile a una concepción asistencialista? La hipótesis que se desarrolla en este trabajo se relaciona con que, vistas en conjunto, estas políticas sobrepasan ampliamente este paradigma. Para ejecutar el estudio se relevó una serie de 40 categorías de políticas mediante la lectura y sistematización de las políticas de desarrollo económico local propuestas por las municipalidades de Chile a través de 69 Planes de Desarrollo Comunal (PLADECO). En promedio las municipalidades proponen acciones en torno a 16 de las 40 categorías, pero son estas en conjunto las que pueden abarcar de forma satisfactoria los diversos desafíos del desarrollo económico local que cada municipalidad enfrenta de acuerdo a la realidad productiva comunal.
Operaciones de acarreo de divisas (carry trade) y sus efectos sobre la turbulencia cambiaria en Chile
En este estudio se ofrecen datos sobre la relación entre la operación de acarreo (carry trade) en pesos chilenos y las caídas de esta moneda frente a otras. Mediante el uso de un amplio conjunto de datos que contiene información del mercado cambiario a plazo local, mostramos que la especulación orientada a aprovechar los grandes diferenciales de la tasa de interés registrados en los últimos tiempos entre el peso y las monedas de los países desarrollados ha provocado varios episodios de turbulencia anormal, medidos por el coeficiente de asimetría de la distribución del tipo de cambio. De conformidad con el marco interpretativo que vincula a la turbulencia con los cambios en las posiciones a plazo de los especuladores, encontramos que la turbulencia es mayor en los períodos en que las mediciones de la incertidumbre mundial han sido especialmente altas.
La economía política del déficit fiscal en el Chile del siglo XIX
A mediados de la década de 1860, se observó en Chile un cambio estructural en la tendencia, que muestra déficits fiscales más elevados. Para algunos autores esto obedeció al aumento del gasto derivado del rápido crecimiento de la economía. Otra explicación común es que fue necesario aumentar el gasto para financiar la guerra contra España. En este artículo se plantea, como explicación alternativa, que se debió principalmente a una creciente agitación política a comienzos de la segunda mitad del siglo XIX, que terminó con la destitución del Presidente Balmaceda en 1891. Esta hipótesis es congruente con la idea de que la inestabilidad política tiende a llevar a un desacoplamiento entre los ingresos tributarios y los gastos, dos elementos que, de otra manera, se mantendrían alineados, tal como predice la teoría del suavizamiento de impuestos (tax smoothing). En este ensayo se presenta una descripción fáctica que apoya dicha hipótesis.
Una tipología de precariedad laboral para Chile: la precariedad como fenómeno transclasista
Este artículo presenta una propuesta de definición y medición de la precariedad laboral. Comenzamos relacionando el fenómeno de la precariedad con las transformaciones de las fisonomías del trabajo y de las clases sociales. Luego, se expone una metodología que combina las técnicas del análisis de correspondencias y el clúster de k-medias para elaborar una tipología de nueve grupos de precariedad. Esto permite evidenciar la precariedad como un fenómeno multidimensional que articula aspectos ligados a la estabilidad, inseguridad, ingresos, condiciones de trabajo y jornadas laborales. Los resultados muestran que estaríamos frente a un fenómeno que no está vinculado a una única clase o posición dentro del mercado laboral, ni tampoco a una única dimensión o indicador, sino más bien a un proceso multidimensional y transclasista, que atraviesa fluidamente diferentes posiciones y situaciones a lo largo de la estructura ocupacional chilena.
Descomposición sectorial de la productividad total de los factores en Chile, 1996-2010
En este artículo se descompone la productividad total de los factores (PTF) por sectores económicos utilizando los datos contenidos en las matrices de insumo-producto de Chile de los años 1996, 2003 y 2010. El análisis se enfoca en tres efectos: el efecto del cambio en la demanda sectorial; el efecto del cambio en la receta de producción y las transacciones intersectoriales, y el efecto del cambio tecnológico sectorial. Este análisis permitió observar que los dos últimos son los principales factores que explican las variaciones de la productividad en el período considerado. En este contexto, destacan los siguientes sectores: industria manufacturera; electricidad, gas y agua, e intermediación financiera y servicios empresariales. Estos han encabezado los cambios positivos de la productividad del país, mientras que el sector de servicios personales podría estar actuando como un factor limitante de su crecimiento. En la descripción del estudio se matizan y contextualizan estas conclusiones.
Intersección entre la clase y el género y su efecto sobre la calidad del empleo en Chile
En este artículo se analiza el efecto de la intersección entre clase y género sobre la calidad del empleo en Chile. La medida de posición de clase utilizada está basada en la propuesta de Erik O. Wright y la calidad del empleo en una medida multidimensional, que incluye un índice de condiciones objetivas de empleo y dos índices de condiciones subjetivas (motivación en el trabajo y percepción del control sobre el proceso de trabajo). Los resultados demuestran que la clase y el género determinan diferencias significativas en la calidad objetiva y subjetiva del empleo. Sin embargo, los datos también indican que el género (particularmente, el hecho de ser mujer) no actúa necesariamente como “amplificador” de las desigualdades de clase observadas en el mercado laboral. A partir de esto, al final del artículo se plantean algunas reflexiones sobre cómo opera la intersección entre clase y género en el mercado laboral chileno.
Impacto del Plan Garantizado de Salud con prima comunitaria única en la demanda del seguro privado de salud en Chile
En 2012 se envió al Congreso de Chile un Plan Garantizado de Salud para el sistema privado de salud, diseñado para ofrecer un plan de características estandarizadas y tarifa plana. En este trabajo se evalúa el impacto que tendría en la demanda de seguros de salud la introducción de este plan. Los resultados sugieren que la cartera del seguro privado disminuiría un 12,39%, lo que significa que alrededor de 400.000 personas se cambiarían al sistema público, exacerbando el problema de selección adversa que enfrenta el sistema y acarreando un pasivo fiscal de 200 millones de dólares anuales.
Distributional effects of eliminating the differential tax treatment of business and personal income in Chile
This paper estimates the distributional effects that would result from eliminating the differential tax treatment of business and personal income in the Chilean tax system, as well as from the elimination of the main personal income tax exemption, the one for voluntary retirement savings. The results of the analysis show that, while the majority of taxpayers benefitting from this exemption are in the upper income brackets, its elimination would not make the income tax more progressive. As to removing the favourable tax treatment for corporate income, the distributional effect is of relevant magnitude and the income tax becomes significantly more progressive. Generally speaking, the results suggest that income taxation in Chile is less progressive than it appears and that it is feasible to give it a more important redistributional role in reducing income inequality.
Chile: Early retirement, impatience and risk aversion
About one third of all Chileans take early retirement. As retirement age approaches, people become more aware of the health issues associated with that stage of life. This reduces their uncertainty about their future quality of life and may lead to a relative increase in impatience. This article offers a theoretical examination of how future life expectancy affects relative levels of impatience in ways that may increase the probability of early retirement. The empirical findings for Chile show that the greater people’s future life expectancy is, the less likely they will be to take early retirement. The article also looks at how risk aversion increases relative impatience as a consequence of people’s uncertainty as to whether or not they will enjoy a good quality of life in the years ahead. The empirical findings point to a positive correlation between risk aversion and early retirement via the mechanism of life expectancy.
The socioeconomic cost of illicit drug consumption in Chile
This article estimates the magnitude of monetary resources which Chile loses or forgoes owing to the trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs. On the basis of a “cost-of-illness” methodology, it is estimated that in 2006 drug consumption in Chile represented an economic burden of 266.744 billion pesos —or US$ 503 million in current prices that year— equivalent to 0.45% of gross domestic product (gdp) and a per capita cost of 16,232 Chilean pesos or US$ 31. The bulk of this sum is related to law enforcement for drug crime or other related offences (47%) and productivity losses reflected in the burden of disability-adjusted life years (46%).
Chile’s new middle classes: A cohort analysis
A cohort analysis methodology is used in this article to study Chile’s “new” middle classes. It describes the members of these cohorts and compares them with older cohorts that are still economically active. The relative size as of the 1990s and 2000s of these occupationally determined middle classes or strata are analysed, and a distinction is drawn between “new” and “old” cohorts. The question as to whether or not the emergence of new occupational cohorts correlates with differences in income is also explored. This analysis leads to the conclusion that a new middle class has taken shape that is composed of people who became full-fledged members of the labour force during the economic growth surge of the 1990s and 2000s. The upper stratum of these new middle classes occupies a preeminent position, and social class influences income levels.
Chile: Port congestion and efficient rationing in cargo transfer operations
The evolution of opportunities for children in Chile, 1990–2006
In this paper we measure the evolution of inequality of opportunity in Chile. These measures assess how unequal the distribution of socioeconomic outcomes is, based on exogenous circumstances. The results show a reduction in inequality of opportunity from 1990 to 2006. The gains are of two classes. First, social service coverage has increased substantially, leading to a general improvement in opportunities. Second, the gaps in access probabilities among population subgroups have been reduced, making the playing field more balanced. These results should be interpreted as partial evidence for the evolution of opportunities in Chile. We also found a significant gap in the opportunity index across Chile, which reflects differences in both coverage rates and the distribution of opportunities within regions. The reduction in inequality is good news, but Chile still has a long way to go to achieve an equitable distribution of welfare.
Chile: is the fee for non-use of water rights effective?
This paper examines whether the fees for non-use of water rights implemented in Chile in 2005 have provided an incentive for the exploitation of unused water. Two comparisons are made and descriptively analysed: between fees charged and paid, and between fees and the market price of water rights. In the successive fee charging rounds, payment levels increased from 67% of the total charged in 2007 to 81.4% in 2009. It was also found that several years of fee payment would be required to match the market price of water rights. The conclusion is that the fee has not been effective in discouraging non-use, since owners tend to pay it rather than forfeit rights whose market price exceeds the fee. Some improvements to the legal design of the instrument are also suggested.
Social coordination through public policies: The Chilean case
Social complexity involves inter-relationships between various actors and systems that enjoy considerable autonomy to define their own interests and operating procedures. This provides a backdrop for the development of models of social coordination that combine autonomous actors and systems pursuing coherent objectives. Drawing on examples from Chile, this article reviews: (i) policy-network models (public works concession system); (ii) deliberation systems (presidential advisory commissions); and (iii) reflexive law systems (international trade arbitration). It is found that the high level of reflexiveness of these models makes it possible, albeit with limitations, to combine principles of autonomy and coherence in the implementation of public policies.
The quality gap in Chile’s education system
The quality gap in education between Chilean schools with different administrative structures (especially in the case of municipal schools and private subsidized schools) has long been a subject of analysis and discussion within the wider debate surrounding the relative efficiency and role of public education. Unconditioned differences in the results of standardized tests that point to higher levels of quality in private schools diminish when sociodemographic factors are controlled for, but the question as to what control variables should be used and which methodology is the most appropriate, as well as the extent of the reduction, all continue to be a subject of debate. Here we undertake a meta-analysis of 17 of the main studies that have been done on the subject. The analysis shows how sensitive the results are to the controls and estimation methods that are used. In the aggregate, private subsidized schools score approximately four points higher than municipal schools do. This is a statistically significant and educationally relevant differential.
Determinants of ownership concentration in the Chilean stock market
This paper analyses econometrically the determinants of ownership concentration in the Chilean stock market, paying particular attention to the effects of the Public Tender Offer Act (Ley de Ofertas Públicas de Adquisición de Acciones). Although the Public Tender Offer Act achieves its central purpose, the tender offer mechanism increases the concentration of ownership, mainly because of the “residual tender offer” obligation for which the Act provides. In addition, the study has found significant opposite responses between the controlling shareholder and the next two largest shareholders, which should sound a warning for international comparisons based on a common measure of ownership concentration that do not take account of the ownership structures characterizing Latin American markets. These aspects must be considered if the regulatory goals aimed at by minority shareholder protection bills are to be achieved.
Chile: Subsidies, credit and housing deficit
This article has two objectives: to analyse the effects of the housing subsidy on access to credit and on real-estate investment; and to study the influence of those relations in the Chilean experience. Following a review of the financing and subsidy systems in Chile, a theoretical model is put forward to analyse the effect of subsidies on housing credit and on the equilibrium of the real-estate market. The model offers new perspectives on the role played by subsidies policy and the structure on which the empirical research is based. The econometric analysis corroborates the two main theoretical proposals, namely: access to the subsidy increases a family’s chances of obtaining credit and reduces the number of families living in a housing-deficit situation. The econometric results also help to interpret the trend of the housing deficit in Chile.
Inequality and academic achievement in Chile
This work uses a set of panel data to contribute new evidence on the impacts of socioeconomic determinants on academic achievement in Chile. Socioeconomic determinants are found to have a statistically significant effect, which rises over time, on academic achievement. The evidence shows that two individuals of different socioeconomic levels (sel) who achieve the same score in Chile’s Educational Quality Measurement System (simce) in eighth grade, are separated by a gap of over 70 points on average four years later, when they sit the University Selection Test (psu). It is concluded that in a context of great income inequality and high returns on tertiary education, academic achievement indexes throw up barriers to access to tertiary education, principally for the population of low socioeconomic level, thereby perpetuating poor income distribution.
Chile: Building a computable general equilibrium model with an application to the Bío Bío region
This paper describes the building of a regional computable general equilibrium model applicable to the analysis of development policies and major economic shocks for specific regions of Chile. Then is generated an application for the Bío Bío region which reveals that the effects of the current fisheries crisis (caused by the scarcity of jack mackerel) can be expected to result in the production structure becoming further specialized in the wood and cellulose industries. It also finds that sectors with few production linkages to the fisheries sector are strongly affected through indirect channels that would be hard to identify without a general equilibrium approach.
Capabilities and gender: A sum or system of inequalities? The case of Chile
Setting out from the broad capability approach put forward by Amartya Sen and working with data from the 2009 National Social Stratification Survey (enes), this article explores the influence of sex on differences in the personal capabilities deemed important for attaining outcomes that determine people’s levels of well-being or deprivation. In terms of capabilities, it investigates individuals’ ability to exercise material, cultural, social and political control over their lives and surroundings, distinguishing between the situation of men and women. Following the construction of individual capability measures, the hypothesis of female disadvantage was tested by the adjustment of multivariate models incorporating relevant controls. The findings suggest that there are non-negligible differences in capabilities between women and men in Chile.
Innovation, R&D investment and productivity in Chile
This paper studies the relationships between investment in research and development (r&d), innovation and productivity in the Chilean manufacturing industry using data from four waves of the national Technological Innovation Survey during the past decade. The analysis is based on a multi-equation model that takes into account the whole process of innovation, considering the determinants of firms’ decisions to engage in innovation activities, the results of those efforts in terms of innovation and their impact on productivity. It is found that: (a) larger plants are more likely to invest in r&d, (b) r&d intensity increases the probability of process innovation, (c) r&d intensity does not affect the probability of product innovation, (d) low appropriability reduces the probability of process innovation, (e) larger firms are more likely to introduce product innovation, and (f) process innovation increases productivity.
Dissecting the Chilean export boom
Chilean exports have boomed since 1975, growing at an average annual rate of 6% per year in real terms. In this paper, we use Chilean manufacturing data at the plant level for the years from 1990 to 2007 to investigate the relationship between exports, plant dynamics and productivity. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of the new theories of heterogeneous firms and trade. First, 64.4% of the total increase in exports is accounted for by new exporters net of failed exporters. This effect is a combination of a larger proportion of plants exporting, a rising proportion of output sold abroad and a higher level of total sales. Second, productivity and exports co-moved over the course of the Chilean boom, exports being positively correlated with both withinplant productivity growth and the productivity-enhancing reallocation of output between plants.
The performance of transnational corporations: Evidence for the manufacturing industry in Chile
Classroom discipline, classroom environment and student performance influence Chile
This paper assesses the extent to which teachers’ actions in the classroom influence the school environment. The assessment is based on a statistical analysis of videotaped classroom observations of 51,329 teachers. The classroom environment was found to have a significant influence on students’ performance. More specifically, the teacher’s ability to handle the class as a group is consistently more significant than other measures of class environment. It was also founds that the overall school environment is a better predictor of students’ test results than the environment in the classrooms of the students whose test results are being reported. This suggests that the most effective course of action would be to improve the overall school environment, although individual teachers have less control over this factor.
The business cycle and coper mining in Chile
The political economy of the fiscal deficit in nineteenth-century Chile: Roberto Pastén
A structural shift in the trend toward higher deficits had emerged by the middle of the 1860s in Chile. For some authors, this was the result of increased spending owing to a fastgrowing economy. Another common explanation is the higher spending required to finance and then recover from the war against Spain, which began in 1864. This article provides an alternative explanation for the country’s fiscal disarray during that period, suggesting that it was motivated largely by increased political turmoil at the beginning of the second half of the nineteenth century in Chile that ended with the ousting of President Balmaceda in 1891. That period represents a dramatic departure from the calmer and economically buoyant early years of the Republic. Thus, it is suggested that the beginning of President José Joaquín Pérez’s rule in 1861 marks both a major political realignment after the birth of the Republic and a structural shift in the trend toward higher deficits. This hypothesis is consistent with the idea that political instability tends to lead to a decoupling of taxes from spending, two elements which would be otherwise aligned as predicted by the tax smoothing theory. This essay is a factual description in support of this hypothesis.
Santiago Chile: City of cities? Social inequalities in local labour market zones: Luis Fuentes, Oscar Mac-Clure, Cristóbal Moya and Camilo Olivos
This article seeks to define and characterize the urban structure of Santiago, Chile, based on the relation between its inhabitants’ places of residency and work, which form local labour market zones. The article explains the criteria and methodological procedures used to define these zones, and it describes them on the basis of this functional definition, to determine the extent to which they underpin the social inequalities prevailing in the city. It also makes a spatial analysis of income inequality, access to education and the composition of the social classes.
The Chilean peso exchange-rate carry trade and turbulence
In this study we provide evidence regarding the relationship between the Chilean peso carry trade and currency crashes of the peso against other currencies. Using a rich dataset containing information from the local Chilean forward market, we show that speculation aimed at taking advantage of the recently large interest rate differentials between the peso and developedcountry currencies has led to several episodes of abnormal turbulence, as measured by the exchange-rate distribution’s skewness coefficient. In line with the interpretative framework linking turbulence to changes in the forward positions of speculators, we find that turbulence is higher in periods during which measures of global uncertainty have been particularly high.
Social classes, economic sector sand changes in the chilean social structure, 1992 and 2013
According to recent research studies, a central characteristic of Chilean society is its mesocratization, in other words the sustained growth of the middle class. This article tests that thesis empirically, using Erik O. Wright’s class model and the shift-share analysis technique to study the changes that occurred in Chile’s class structure in two periods 1992–2003 and 2003–2013. The study concludes that the idea of mesocratization is questionable; between 1992 and 2013, there are substantially fewer people located in middle-class positions than in the “popular” classes (working class and informal self-employed). Moreover, the growth of the middle class has been relatively marginal and has been accompanied by trends that contradict the idea of a mesocratic society (such as the expansion of the working class between 2003 and 2013).
Inherited and social factors explaining early skills inequality: The case of chilean children
This article sets out to analyse differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills between Chilean children. It first examines factors explaining the level of these skills and then goes on to distinguish between children from poor and non-poor households. The data are taken from the first Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, which was analysed using logistic binary regression. This study finds that variables associated with the mother's intelligence level and other socialization-related variables are statistically significant. However, separate statistical analysis for poor and non-poor households yields different effects of socialization. The main conclusion is that the mother's skills are a relevant explanatory factor in both poor and non-poor children's households. Nonetheless, unequal development of skills in early childhood is not due to inherited traits alone. Stimulation matters in poor households, while the mother's education matters in non-poor households.
The wealth gifted to the large-scale copper mining industry in Chile: New estimates, 2005-2014
This article estimates the economic rents received by the 10 mines that comprise Chile’s large-scale private-sector copper-mining industry. The methodology used produces a conservative calculation and includes two corrections that have hitherto been ignored in the literature: the reimbursement of exploration expenses and the compensation needed for volatility in the copper price. Estimates show that the wealth transferred to these firms between 2005 and 2014 was at least US$ 114 billion. These rents are neutral in terms of investment and production decisions; in other words, if the private mining companies had paid the Chilean Treasury the calculated amount, their total investment and output would have been unchanged, but the country at large could have benefited from the huge voluminous resources in question. Moreover, in the absence of any other distortion, the firms would still have earned returns equivalent to what they would have obtained under perfect competition.
Macroeconomic shocks and policy reforms: Lessons from the 1999 downturn in Chile
This article analyses the Chilean government’s response to the 1999 recession that followed on from the Asian financial crisis, focusing on the macroeconomic policy reforms adopted and the institutional factors that influenced this response. The analysis is based on a review of previous research on the topic and suggests that some fiscal and monetary policies adopted during 1997-1998 exacerbated the effects of what were initially external shocks. However, fiscal discipline and the robust public institutions developed before and after the recession strengthened Chilean social protection policies. Specifically, public debt reduction in the 1990s, the Copper Revenue Stabilization Fund (FEC) set up in 1985, the structural surplus fiscal rule introduced in 2000 and the new monetary, exchange-rate and fiscal policy mix of that decade reduced the vulnerability of Chile to new shocks.
Fiscal sustainability and the cyclically adjusted balance policy: Methodology and analysis for Chile
This paper sets forth a framework for analysing fiscal sustainability in the Chilean economy. It starts by making an ex post calculation of indicators of vulnerability and fiscal sustainability, based on the estimation of a sustainable debt level, with public finances considered in stationary state. It then develops an ad hoc dynamic fiscal sustainability model for Chile’s public finances, which for the first time incorporates the dynamic of the Pension Reserve Fund (FRP) with its accumulation and disbursement rules, together with the cyclically adjusted balance policy. Lastly, the study simulates the path of the budgetary central government’s net debt up to 2025, using the projections made in the 2018 Public Finance Report, under a macroeconomic trend scenario and another adverse scenario, all framed by the cyclically adjusted balance rule.
Job satisfaction in Chile: geographic determinants and differences
Logit, binary and multinomial models are used in this study to determine the impact of objective and perceived working conditions on workers’ job satisfaction. Possible differences between job satisfaction in the Metropolitan Region and in other areas of Chile are also explored. The data used in this analysis are drawn from the first National Survey on Employment, Work, Health and Quality of Life of Workers in Chile (ENETS). Wage levels were found to have a positive impact across the board, while residence in an area other than the Metropolitan Region also had a significantly positive effect. These results were corroborated using matching techniques. The finding that subjective perceptions have a great deal of explanatory power and that their impact outweighs the influence of objective conditions may be of interest in the areas of both public policy and business administration.
Trade facilitation and its effects on Chile’s bilateral trade between 2006 and 2014
This study analyses the effects of trade facilitation on Chilean exports in 2006-2014. It reviews evidence and studies on trade facilitation and its effects, mainly in South America; and it analyses Chile’s export basket. An extended gravity model is then estimated for Chile’s bilateral trade flow with 89 countries, to measure the effect of trade facilitation during the period analysed. The estimation is performed using static panel data with fixed, random and dynamic effects. The key results show that the estimation that best describes Chile’s export behaviour is that which uses static panel data with random and dynamic effects and two lags of the dependent variable (exports). They show that per-container export costs have a negative effect on this trade flow.
Local economic development policies in Chile’s municipalities: Beyond welfarism
To what extent are local economic development policies limited to a welfare approach in Chile? The hypothesis pursued in this work is that, taken together, these policies far exceed this paradigm. For the study, a register of 40 policy categories was taken by means of a reading and systematization of local economic development policies run by Chile’s municipalities through 69 District Development Plans (PLADECO). On average, municipalities propose actions in 16 of the 40 categories, but these, overall, are capable of encompassing in a satisfactory manner the various local economic development challenges faced by each municipality depending on the district’s production structure and situation.
Short- and long-term ex post evaluation of community based environmental initiatives in Chile
This study contributes to the limited literature on environmental impact assessments by undertaking an ex post evaluation of a programme to improve the environment through various community-based initiatives that promote education and citizen participation in Chile. In line with the selection criteria for the projects and the nature of the data available, the instrumental variables method is used to determine this programme's effect on perceived problems associated with multiple environmental issues. The results reveal that, in the short term, only the perception of odour pollution improves, while, in the long term, the impact on that issue increases twofold and the perception of air pollution and pollution caused by stray dogs both improve by a similar magnitude.
Productive investment in Chile’s economic development: trend and challenges
This article reviews the trend of investment in Chile and its relationship with economic growth since the 1973 coup d’état; and it documents how investment remains the main growth driver. Notwithstanding that fact, innovation helps to mitigate diminishing returns from natural resources, while technology-intensive investment, such as broadband infrastructure, helps to diversify the production matrix. The article shows how a persistent increase in the investment ratio in 1990–1998 supported GDP growth of 7.1% per year; but since 1999 investment has wavered, and average growth dropped to below 4%. The article examines the macroeconomic environment and its real instability since 1999, along with investment in infrastructure, the quality of natural resources and environmental services; and it identifies challenges for boosting both investment and innovation, diversifying the production matrix and its agents, and moving towards inclusive growth.
The intersection between class and gender and its impact on the quality of employment in Chile
This study explores the impact of the intersection between class and gender on the quality of employment in Chile. The method used to measure social class position is based on the work of Erik O. Wright, while, for the quality of employment, a multidimensional measurement was used, including one index for objective working conditions and two indices for subjective ones (motivation on the job and the perception of control over work processes). The results demonstrate that class and gender give rise to significant differences in objective and subjective job quality. However, the data also indicate that gender (more specifically, the fact of being female) does not necessarily amplify the class-based inequalities observed in the labour market. Drawing on these findings, a number of thoughts about how the class/gender intersection operates in the Chilean labour market are shared in the final section of this study.