Mexico
Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
This paper deals with the ways in which the exchange rate regimes of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico shaped the macroeconomic performance of those countries over the period 1994-2003. The purpose of the analysis is to draw lessons for Latin American and other countries on whether and how the choice of the exchange rate regime can help sustained growth. As it is impossible to isolate the growth effect of the exchange rate regime in a comparative country study, the paper emphasises those macro variables that have been identified in the theoretical and empirical literature as important channels through which the choice of exchange rate regime affects economic performance, namely, investment, trade openness, capital flows and fiscal or institutional rigidities
The impact of remittances on macroeconomic stability: The cases of Mexico and Central America
The present study uses the monetary approach to the balance of payments and a macroeconomic model of the Mundell-Fleming type to analyse the effects of family remittances on economic growth in Mexico and the countries making up the Central America region. The methodology employed is based on the application of a panel data model to quarterly balance-of-payments series for the 1990-2005 period. The study findings suggest that the repercussions of inward remittances are different in each country and depend on monetary policy. The econometric estimates also indicate that, when an upsurge in remittances occurs, its contribution to economic growth is smaller in countries where remittances tend to produce an overvalued exchange rate, reinforcing macroeconomic stability in the context of an open economy.
Intergenerational social mobility in urban Mexico
This article assesses changes in absolute and relative opportunities of access to the upper strata of the urban social and occupational structure in Mexico, drawing on data from the largest retrospective social mobility survey carried out in the country, which covers all the largest cities and some medium-sized ones. It analyses intergenerational mobility in three periods: before 1982, from 1982 to 1988, and from 1988 to 1994. The results show a striking decline in opportunities of access to the stratum of professionals, managers and executives and large employers. This decline has not been linear but has affected first and foremost those from the lowest strata, then those from privileged strata, while leaving the intermediate strata of the sociooccupational structure virtually unaffected. The article also analyses the evolution of absolute and relative opportunities by gender.
Financiamiento de la banca comercial para las micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas en México
Relaciones dinámicas del producto y el empleo en México: Una evaluación de sus componentes permanentes y transitorios
México: Valor agregado en las exportaciones manufactureras
En las últimas décadas, el sector exportador mexicano ha experimentado un dinamismo y una transformación extraordinarios donde dominan las exportaciones manufactureras, destacándose los productos de tecnología media y alta. Sin embargo, ha crecido la brecha entre exportaciones y producto, lo que indica la debilidad del sector exportador para impulsar el crecimiento económico. El trabajo se basa en la idea de que la capacidad de las exportaciones de dinamizar la economía se refuerza si estas amplían el mercado interno. Ello depende del ingreso nacional contenido en las exportaciones. Se presenta una estimación del valor agregado nacional contenido en las exportaciones manufactureras por sectores y según si es directo —ingreso generado directamente por la actividad exportadora—, o indirecto —ingresos contenidos en los insumos que conforman los productos exportados. La información concierne a las exportaciones manufactureras totales, las de la industria maquiladora de exportación y las del resto de la economía.
México: La maquila, el desajuste monetario y el crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones
El débil efecto de las exportaciones en el crecimiento de México obedecería en parte a dos características de su economía posteriors a la liberalización del comercio: la continua apreciación real del peso, y la alta y creciente participación de la maquila en las exportaciones. El argumento se desarrolla con un ejemplo analítico para una economía estacionaria sin inversión, cuyos principales supuestos se justifican mediante evidencia empírica tomada de la Encuesta Industrial Anual y de la estimación de ecuaciones de cointegración para las importaciones de bienes intermedios dentro y fuera de la maquila. Según dicha evidencia, las exportaciones dependen fuertemente de las importaciones, beneficiándose de la liberalización del comercio; asimismo, si bien las variaciones del tipo de cambio real pueden ocasionar una sustitución de bienes intermedios nacionales por importados, esto no ocurre en la maquila.
Crecimiento y concentración de los principales grupos empresariales en México
En este trabajo se discuten diversas hipótesis sobre el origen y operación de los grupos económicos y se plantea un modelo destinado a explicar las fuentes de crecimiento de los activos totales. Se muestra la creciente contribución de los grupos económicos mexicanos al pib, mientras que sus aportaciones en términos del empleo y las utilidades son menores. Se observa a lo largo del tiempo un claro fenómeno de concentración de las ventas y activos en favor de los grupos más importantes. Se concluye que la principal fuente de financiamiento de la expansión de los activos entre 2005 y 2007 fueron el crecimiento de los pasivos y, en segundo lugar, las aportaciones patrimoniales de los accionistas. Se determina que la inversión de los principales grupos se realiza de manera discreta en el tiempo y que estos tienden a “sobreinvertir” como una forma de obstruir la entrada de otros competidores.
México: ¿Cómo inciden las políticas monetarias en las tasas de desempleo?
En este artículo se analiza el impacto de un choque (shock) de política monetaria en las tasas de desempleo de México. A diferencia de estudios anteriores, en este se volvieron a calcular las tasas de desempleo para compararlas con las de los países de la Organización de Cooperación y Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE). La conclusión es que, ante una política monetaria restrictiva, el desempleo aumenta siguiendo el mismo patrón en forma de U invertida que se observa en otros estudios. Los resultados son robustos con respecto a diferentes supuestos sobre la naturaleza del mercado laboral mexicano.
El impacto del salario mínimo en los ingresos y el empleo en México
En este artículo se analizan los efectos del aumento del salario mínimo en el salario y el empleo en México. Para ello se homologa el salario mínimo en dos zonas del país a finales de 2012 como fuente de variación. Utilizando la Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE), se realiza un análisis econométrico de corte transversal y otro de panel a nivel individual. Los resultados del primero indican que, en promedio, el salario por hora de los trabajadores de la zona B aumentó entre el 1,6% y el 2,6% y, en el caso de los trabajadores asalariados, entre el 1,8% y el 3,3%. El análisis de panel produce resultados similares. Si bien el análisis de corte transversal no revela un impacto en términos de empleo, los datos de panel indican que la probabilidad de ser trabajador informal (formal) disminuyó (aumentó) entre las personas afectadas por el incremento salarial.
El bienestar de la población de los estados de México bajo un enfoque de multidimensionalidad
En el presente artículo se adapta un índice multidimensional de bienestar de la población de los estados mexicanos sobre la base de las recomendaciones de la Comisión sobre la Medición del Desempeño Económico y el Progreso Social. Los aportes de este estudio se resumen en tres puntos importantes: i) se emplea el análisis de factores de componentes principales para permitir que las dimensiones tengan diferente ponderación, ii) se considera la desigualdad del bienestar material de la población dentro de cada estado, y iii) se contemplan datos representativos a nivel estatal de todas las dimensiones. Los resultados muestran que las dimensiones relacionadas con el bienestar objetivo tienen mayor ponderación que las dimensiones de bienestar subjetivo, y que las diferencias en la ponderación de las dimensiones e indicadores utilizados son más importantes que su número y características.
Propuesta de un indicador de bienestar multidimensional de uso del tiempo y condiciones de vida aplicado a Colombia, el Ecuador, México y el Uruguay
Mexico: Value added in exports of manufactures
In the last few decades, Mexico’s export sector has seen extraordinarily robust growth and has undergone sweeping changes, with exports of manufactures, especially intermediate- and high-technology products, leading the way. At the same time, however, the gap between exports and gdp has been widening, which indicates that the export sector is underperforming as a driver of economic growth. This study is based on the idea that the ability of exports to galvanize the economy will be heightened if export activity leads to an expansion of the domestic market. Whether or not it will do so depends on the amount of national income that is incorporated into exports. The authors estimate how much national value added is contained in exports of manufactures, by sector and by category (direct income, i.e., income generated directly by export activity, and indirect income, i.e., income incorporated into the inputs used to produce export goods). This information is provided for total exports of manufactures, exports of the maquila industry and non-maquila exports.
Commercial bank financing for micro-enterprises and SMEs in Mexico
Mexico: What is the impact of monetary policy on unemployment rates?
In this paper we analyse the effects of a monetary policy shock on Mexican unemployment rates. Unlike previous studies, this one re-estimates unemployment to produce alternative rates comparable to those of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (oecd) member countries. We find that in response to tightening monetary policy, unemployment increases with a characteristic hump-shaped pattern also found in other studies. Our results are robust to different assumptions about the nature of Mexico’s labour market.
Maquila, currency misalignment and export-led growth in Mexico
The paper argues that the weak effect of exports on gdp growth in Mexico is partly explained by two features of the Mexican economy that arose subsequent to trade liberalization: the peso’s continued real appreciation and the large and rising share of the maquila sector in manufacturing exports. The argument is developed through an analytical example for a stationary economy with no investment. As motivation for the example’s main assumptions, the paper presents empirical evidence gathered from the country’s Annual Industrial Survey and the estimation of cointegration equations for maquila and non-maquila intermediate imports. The empirical evidence shows that (a) exports are highly dependent on imports and thus benefit from trade liberalization, and (b) while real exchange rate changes can induce substitution between local and imported intermediate goods generally, this is not the case in the maquila sector.
A comparative analysis of productivity in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries
This article analyses productivity trends in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries between 1995 and 2009, a period in which international competition intensified sharply. A total of 14 manufacturing industries are considered, using two methods based on: (i) the Leontief (1951) model to measure the consumption of intermediate goods used in production; and (ii) the analysis of total factor productivity (tfp). The studies performed show that manufacturing trends have diverged in the two countries. In Mexico, an increased need for imported goods and services was offset by a reduction in domestic goods and service requirements, and an increase in the tfp of production. In the case of Brazil, the fact that manufactured goods markets are more isolated from foreign trade seems to have contributed to a weak productivity performance.
Currency carry trade and the cost of international reserves in Mexico
National strategies aimed at boosting economic growth following the global financial crisis have spawned monetary imbalances between industrial and emerging economies. By implementing ultra-expansionary monetary policies, the industrial economies drive down interest rates, while the emerging economies tighten their monetary policies by raising rates, thus generating a burgeoning foreign-currency carry trade. Vulnerability is caused by the sudden reversal of such capital flows or the high cost of insuring against this by accumulating reserves. This paper estimates that the cost of reserve accumulation between 2008 and 2014 averaged 1.83% of GDP, so the free capital mobility espoused by the Mexican authorities makes it very costly to play by the rules of financial globalization.
A multidimensional approach to the well-being of the population of the states of Mexico
This article adapts a multidimensional index of the well-being of the population in the Mexican States, based on the recommendations of the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (CMEPSP). This study's contributions can be summarized in three key points: (i) factor analysis of principal components is used, to allow for different weights of dimensions; (ii) consideration is given to inequality of material well-being within the population of each state, and; (iii) representative state data are considered for all dimensions. The results show that the dimensions of objective well-being have greater weights than the dimensions of subjective well-being, and that differences between weights of dimensions and indicators used are more important than their quantity or characteristics.
The impact of the minimum wage on income and employment in Mexico
This article analyses the effects of a rise in the minimum wage on wages and employment in Mexico. The source of variation is the equalization in late 2012 of the minimum wage in two areas of the country. Using the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE), econometric analyses are performed of cross-section and individual panel data. The results of the first indicate that, on average, the hourly wage in zone B rose by between 1.6% and 2.6% for workers overall and between 1.8% and 3.3% for wage workers. The panel analysis yields similar results. Although the cross-section analysis does not show an impact in terms of employment, the panel data indicate that the probability of being an informal (formal) worker falls (rises) among those affected by the wage rise policy.