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UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers
The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers aim to stimulate discussion and critical comment on the broad range of economic, social and environmental issues associated with the United Nations Development Agenda.
1 - 20 of 175 results
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Using Large Language Models to Help Train Machine Learning SDG Classifiers
Publication Date: November 2023More LessThis paper proposes the use of synthetic training data generated by large language models to improve machine learning SDG classifiers. It shows that supplementing existing training data with synthetic data produced by the ChatGPT tool improves the performance of the SDGClassy classifier. This addition of synthetic data is especially useful in building SDG classifiers given the limited availability of properly labeled data and the complex, interconnected nature of the SDGs. Synthetic data thus enable more effective machine-learning applications in this context.
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Multidimensional Vulnerability and Sovereign Debt
Publication Date: August 2022More LessLack of fiscal space and the risk of sovereign debt distress remain key stumbling blocks to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries. Because the allocation of concessional funds and debt relief is essentially reserved to Low Income countries (LICs), official financing strategies and mechanisms to support developing countries provide insufficient support to non-LICs that may need and deserve special consideration concerning official financing. This paper discusses how official financial support allocation could consider countries’ vulnerabilities in critical dimensions, with special reference to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It explores how a multidimensional vulnerability indexes (MVI) could be used to expand the access of vulnerable countries to official financing, including concessional financing, and facilitate constructive debt restructuring when they need it.
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Adding Fuel to the Fire? Inequality and the Spread of COVID-19
Publication Date: July 2022More LessThe pandemic has progressed differently across the world. Using monthly data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities, we evaluate whether income inequality is an important factor in explaining cross-country differences in the spread and mortality of the virus. The results show that income inequality is positively correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases. Higher income inequality is associated with a more rapid spread of the virus and an increase in the number of cases, indirectly increasing mortality rates as well. Also, higher levels of inequality are associated with reduced effectiveness of social distancing measures in containing new infections. Thus, elevated inequalities place societies in a more vulnerable position to confront this pandemic, and more unequal countries would need more robust public responses to contain the spread of the virus.
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Expanding Sustainable Infrastructure Investment Opportunities: Guidance for Governments and International Organizations
Publication Date: May 2022More LessAs developing countries pursue infrastructure projects, they should aim to address a combination of the pandemic, climate, inequality, and other crises with the right mix of economic and social infrastructure. To do this, governments must invest in a national infrastructure planning process, align planning with the SDGs, and prioritize sustainable infrastructure over infrastructure that does not put people and the planet first. There is no silver bullet for all the challenges; however, incremental changes based on innovative precedents can potentially make a difference on the ground. This paper proposes an analytical framework to consider these challenges and concludes with possible solutions.
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Trust with integrity: Harnessing the Integrity Dividends of Digital Government for Reducing Corruption in Developing Countries
Publication Date: April 2022More LessDoes digitalization reduce corruption? What are the benefits of data-driven digital government innovations to strengthen public integrity and advance the Sustainable Development Goals? While the correlation between digitalization and corruption is well established, there is less actionable evidence on the effects of specific digitalization reforms on different types of corruption and the policy channels through which they operate. This paper unbundles the integrity dividends of digital reforms that the pandemic has accelerated. It analyses the rise of integrity-tech and integrity analytics in the anticorruption space, deployed by data-savvy integrity institutions. It also assesses the broader integrity dividends of government digitalization for cutting redtape, reducing discretion and increasing transparency in government services and social transfers. It argues that digital government can be an effective anticorruption strategy, with subtler yet deeper effects. There nevertheless needs to be greater synergies between digital reforms and anticorruption strategies.
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Credit Rating Agencies and Developing Economies
Authors: United Nations, Stephany Griffith-Jones and Moritz KraemerPublication Date: December 2021More LessThe pandemic-induced global economic crisis has contributed to the re-emergence of sovereign default risk, especially for emerging and developing economies, and has directed attention to the impact of the institutions that are tasked with attempting to predict defaults: the international credit rating agencies. This paper describes four main challenges posed by credit rating agencies, especially from a developing and emerging economies perspective: potential bias in ratings, pro-cyclicality of ratings, governance issues and conflicts of interest, and incorporation of climate risk. It concludes with potential policy solutions addressed at ratings agencies, regulators, and policy makers.
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The COVID-19 Crisis: What Explains Cross-country Differences in the Pandemic’s Short-term Economic Impact?
Publication Date: August 2021More LessThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However, the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard, while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper, we use cross-country regression analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition, our results shed light on several aspects of economic resilience. Good governance, provision of fiscal support and strong macroeconomic fundamentals all helped cushion the economic impact. By contrast, a lack of economic diversification – reflected in overreliance on the tourism sector or oil production – has significantly amplified the shock.
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Economic Insecurity and Well-being
Publication Date: July 2021More LessIn Article 25 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the United Nations recognized in 1948 the basic human right to “security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond ... control.” This paper examines how economic insecurity is related to, yet different from, poverty and inequality, why it matters for human well-being and how it has been changing in different countries around the world in recent years. The paper concludes with discussion of how economic insecurity has been and will be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic/recession.
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Variations in Covid Strategies: Determinants and Lessons
Publication Date: June 2021More LessThis paper examines the experience of a set of countries that performed relatively well in coping with the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis. The goal is to garner insights and lessons that can help countries that may experience initial or second-round outbreaks of the pandemic in the future. The paper finds healthcare, social protection, and overall governance systems as the three main determinants of COVID-19 strategies and their success. Though unique country-specific factors played an important role in confronting the pandemic in some countries, their role was generally mediated through one or the other of the above three main determinants. The findings of the paper suggest that establishing universal healthcare and social protection systems and improvement of governance need to be taken up as an immediate task – and not as a distant goal – even by developing countries. In view of the possibility of recurrence of epidemics in the future, this task has become important.
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What Does the United Nations “say” About Global Agenda? An Exploration of Trends Using Natural Language Processing for Machine Learning
Publication Date: June 2021More LessHow has the focus of the UN General Assembly changed over time and how well is the global agenda expressed in these documents? This paper presents a proof-of-concept classifier to examine the evolution of the global agenda expressed and observed in words of the UN General Assembly resolutions. Using natural language processing to identify four categories of resolutions — Sustainable Development, Justice and Law, Human Rights, and Peace and Security — the analysis of 3,765 UN GA resolutions from 2007 to 2019 reveals the changing areas of focus of the Member States and, as a result, of the UN Secretariat. Sustainable Development is slowly gaining importance in the language in UN resolutions.
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How Long Will it Take for LDCs and SIDS to Recover From the Impacts of COVID-19?
Publication Date: June 2021More LessThe COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is entailing huge costs worldwide. To help developing countries formulate policy responses to minimize negative impacts of the COVID-19, possible size and duration of the shocks on most vulnerable countries, i.e., least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and their resilience to overcome the shocks need to be assessed. This paper quantitatively examines possible paths of LDCs and SIDS recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, using an autoregressive model of income growth and a panel regression model of external demand for LDCs and SIDS. Evidence from the experience of the 2007-08 global financial crisis suggests that the income growth of LDCs and SIDS had not recovered to the level of pre-crisis rates even 5 years after the crisis. This suggests a slower recovery for many LDCs and SIDS, while developed economies were able to achieve a quick recovery. The magnitude of current COVID-19 crisis relative to previous shocks is unknown, and so the regression analysis suggested that, if income in advanced economies fell by 6 per cent in 2020 and bounced back in 2021, growth of per capita income in LDCs and SIDS may need about 4 to 5 years to be able to return to the projected path under the baseline scenario without the COVID-19 crisis. The actual speed and duration of recovery in LDCs and SIDS are likely to be slower and longer, considering other factors, such as additional impacts from shocks related to commodity prices and climate change.
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Beyond the Business Case: The Strategic Role of the Private Sector in Transforming the Real Economy
Publication Date: September 2020More LessResearch suggests that achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can open up market opportunities worth USD 12 trillion in the four largest sectors that represent 60 per cent of real economy – food and agriculture; cities; energy and materials; and health and well-being. While the concept of the SDGs creating a win-win situation for all is growing increasingly trendy, further evidence needs to be accumulated to better chart the important discourse on the private sector’s engagement with the SDGs. To this end, this paper aims to shed light on three questions: (i) How is the private sector currently engaging with the SGDs in these sectors?; (ii) What are the key areas of opportunities in which companies can foster long-term value in support of sustainable development?; and (iii) What transformations are needed to enhance the contributions of the private sector? Noting the shift towards a more inclusive, green and circular future requires policy, institutional, technological and human capabilities and political will, this paper provides concrete policy recommendations on some of the first steps required to move towards such transformations.
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Exporters in Africa: What Role for Trade Costs?
Authors: Helena Afonso and Sebastian VergaraPublication Date: July 2020More LessThis paper investigates the role of trade costs in exporter dynamics in Africa. In comparison to exporters from other regions, African exporting firms are fewer, smaller and relatively less diversified in terms of products and destinations. African countries also display the highest rates of entry, exit and turnover of exporting firms, exporting products and export destinations. This suggests that Africa’s exporting activity is volatile and subject to a lot of experimentation, with exporters having difficulties in maintaining trade relationships. The analysis also confirms that trade costs are a crucial factor in explaining exporter performance in Africa vis-à-vis other regions, but also among African countries. Trade costs play a disproportionate role in affecting the size of new exporters and the survival of exporters in Africa in comparison to other regions. Also, trade costs differences across African countries are a relevant factor in explaining the lower market diversification of exporters from landlocked countries. A key implication is that the African Continental Free Trade Agreement can entail large benefits in the medium-term, especially in terms of export flows and destination markets. Yet, the diversification of export products will likely remain limited without strengthening productive capacities.
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The Economic and Political Costs of Population Displacement and their Impact on the SDGs and Multilateralism
Author: Kristinn Sv. HelgasonPublication Date: July 2020More LessWhile migration and population displacement has always been part of the human experience, the context within which it occurs today has materially changed. Migration has become an important part of economic globalization and closely related to countries’ development process. Conflicts, poverty, natural disasters and climate events are also forcing people to migrate in an ever-increasing number. For many low-income countries with large number of internally-displaced people, on the other hand, the high economic costs are making it more difficult for them to invest in SDG implementation. Developing countries also host most of the externally-displaced people at high economic costs, which similarly affects their ability to achieve the SDGs. The political costs of hosting large number of refugees in developed states have also been significant in recent years, particularly in the aftermath of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis. The refugee crisis triggered intense politicization of migration and sharp rise in anti-immigration sentiments and support for populist parties in many countries of the region, leading some governments to tighten their borders, introduce more restrictive immigration policies and retreat from multilateral migration efforts. There is at the same time growing recognition that population displacement and migration is a contemporary global challenge that can only be solved through effective multilateral cooperation. In this context, it becomes important for states to build on the current nascent governance architecture such as the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration so that the benefits of migration and population displacement can be more effectively harnessed for the achievement of the SDGs.
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Economic Properties of Data and the Monopolistic Tendencies of Data Economy: Policies to Limit an Orwellian Possibility
Author: Hoi Wai Jackie ChengPublication Date: June 2020More LessThe potential of data for supporting development is bounded only by the amount and variety of data that can be collected and analyzed, which is to say it is almost infinite. However, if data’s vast benefits are disproportionately captured by few in the society, leaving no one behind – an overarching principle of the Sustainable Development Goals – would be difficult to attain, even when everyone benefits from the use of data. This paper discusses key data properties and dynamics in data economy that create the tendencies for monopolies to emerge, reinforcing unbalanced power between corporates and other actors and generating negative distributional implications. If mismanaged, transformation toward the data economy could end up being an unequalizing force in an already highly-unequal world. In the context of data economy, this paper presents critiques of the common approaches to deal with monopolies. Self-correction in market is unlikely to happen fast enough but breaking up or nationalizing data monopolies are undesirable from effectiveness and innovation perspectives. Strengthening data ownership is key to rebalancing the power asymmetry between corporates and digital subjects, but difficulty of data valuation needs to be overcome. Analyses in this paper support further exploring the idea of setting up an independent, accountable and forward-looking Digital Authority that has both competition and noncompetition goals.
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A Post-SDG Summit Governance Primer: Interlinking the Institutional, Peace and Justice Dimensions of SDG16 (2016–2019)
Author: Peride K. BlindPublication Date: June 2020More LessAs the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development enters its fifth year of implementation, it is opportune to ask how governance is understood and implemented around the world. In fact, one can go further to probe the extent to which governments are cognizant of the principles undergirding effective governance. This paper examines the ways in which governance has been operationalized by countries, major groups and other stakeholders since the first round of Voluntary National Reviews at the High-level Political Forum (HLPF) of 2016. It does this based on the qualitative overview of the Synthesis reports of Voluntary National Reviews (2016–2029), and the quantitative analysis of three SDG databases: Voluntary National Reviews, SDG Good Practices and the SDG Acceleration Actions. It starts with a literature review of the multidimensional concept of governance. The three databases are then scoped through a series of keywords associated with the SDG16 governance targets. It finds that although SDG 16 is catalytic to progress on all other SDGs, its governance dimension does not receive due focus. The article concludes with several action areas to mainstream the governance dimension of SDG16 in sustainable development.
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Some Considerations on External Audits of SDG Implementation
Authors: David Le Blanc and Aránzazu Guillán MonteroPublication Date: June 2020More LessSupreme audit institutions (SAIs) have started to audit the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While there is no one single audit model or approach to audit SDG implementation, audits should incorporate a few core methodological features related to the principles of the 2030 Agenda. Four methodological and practical challenges associated with conducting performance audits of SDG implementation, as they differ from traditional audits, are discussed in this paper: 1) problem definition, including the level of investigation in the SDG hierarchy of goals and targets and the audit scope; 2) conceptual challenges inherent in going from the level of individual entities or programs to that of whole-of-government performance; 3) practical considerations that should inform an analysis of the coherence of government actions in a given policy area; and 4) the ways in which audit guidance at the international level can help individual SAIs going forward. Ultimately, this paper aims to inform the broader discussion on evaluation of the SDGs.
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E-participation: A Quick Overview of Recent Qualitative Trends
Authors: United Nations and David Le BlancPublication Date: May 2020More LessThis paper briefly takes stock of two decades of e-participation initiatives based on a limited review of the academic literature. The purpose of the paper is to complement the results of the e-government Survey 2020. As such, the emphasis is on aspects that the e-government survey (based on analysis of e-government portals and on quantitative indicators) does not capture directly. Among those are the challenges faced by e-participation initiatives and key areas of attention for governments. The paper maps the field of e-participation and related activities, as well as its relationships with other governance concepts. Areas of recent development in terms of e-participation applications are briefly reviewed. The paper selectively highlights conclusions from the literature on different participation tools, as well as a list of key problematic areas for policy makers. The paper concludes that while e-participation platforms using new technologies have spread rapidly in developed countries in the first decade of the 2000s and in developing countries during the last 10 years, it is not clear that their multiplication has translated into broader or deeper citizen participation. Beyond reasons related to technology access and digital skills, factors such as lack of understanding of citizens’ motivations to participate and the reluctance of public institutions to genuinely share agenda setting and decision-making power seem to play an important role in the observed limited progress.
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How Relevant is Governance to Financing for Development and Partnerships? Interlinking SDG16 and SDG17 at the Target Level
Authors: United Nations and Peride K. BlindPublication Date: May 2020More LessIt would be hard to fathom any Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) being achieved without either adequate human and financial resources and partnerships or institutions that are effective, inclusive and accountable. One would expect, therefore, that two of the most cross-cutting SDGs of the 2030 Agenda, SDG16 on Peace, justice and strong institutions and SDG17 on the Means of implementation and partnerships for development would receive ample attention in scholarly work and policy analysis. A quick overview of the literature reveals, however, that although SDG16 and SDG17 are examined quite extensively in and of themselves, linkages between the two seldom receive attention. This article attempts to fill in the gap by undertaking a preliminary comparative analysis of the targets of these two Goals. It asks if certain means of implementation included in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development (AAAA) and in SDG17 can address some of the governance challenges covered by SDG16 targets, and vice-versa. The overall aim of the paper is twofold: (i) to provide ideas on how a targeted focus on SDG16-SDG17 interactions can assist in mainstreaming the AAAA into the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development[1], and (ii) to elucidate how a public administration focus can be instrumental in doing the latter and in interlinking SDG16 and SDG17.
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The Role of Productive and Technological Capabilities on Export Dynamics in Developing Countries
Authors: United Nations and Sebastian VergaraPublication Date: November 2019More LessProductive and technological capabilities matter. The more conventional strands of the literature have emphasized them as major engines of export, growth and development. But how they matter is less clear, and many open questions remain on how capabilities influence export dynamics at microeconomic level. This paper empirically investigates their role on export dynamics in 40 developing countries between 2002 and 2012. In doing so, the paper exploits a country-sector-year database containing exporter-level statistical information. The empirical analysis shows that, within sectors, countries with higher productive capacities have more exporters, and the exporters are larger and charge higher prices for their products, even after controlling for level of development, size of the economy, commodity-dependency and other variables. The results also confirm a positive relationship between technological capabilities and diversification: within sectors, exporters in countries with stronger capabilities tend to export a higher number of products and to more destination markets. Finally, technological capabilities play a specific role in high-technology sectors, such as electronics, electrical machinery and equipment and pharmaceuticals. In these sectors, exporters from countries with higher R&D investments are more diversified in terms of destination markets. Thus, the paper shows that, even comparing exporters’ behaviour only among developing countries, stronger productive and technological capabilities are significantly related to the “extensive” and “intensive” margin of exports, diversification across products and destinations, and product quality; all crucial aspects of developing countries’ insertion in global markets. Overall, the paper underscores the role of capabilities not only on developing countries’ macroeconomic resilience to trade shocks, but also on their medium-term development prospects.
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