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UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers
The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Working Papers aim to stimulate discussion and critical comment on the broad range of economic, social and environmental issues associated with the United Nations Development Agenda.
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Using Large Language Models to Help Train Machine Learning SDG Classifiers
出版日期: 十一月 2023更多 更少This paper proposes the use of synthetic training data generated by large language models to improve machine learning SDG classifiers. It shows that supplementing existing training data with synthetic data produced by the ChatGPT tool improves the performance of the SDGClassy classifier. This addition of synthetic data is especially useful in building SDG classifiers given the limited availability of properly labeled data and the complex, interconnected nature of the SDGs. Synthetic data thus enable more effective machine-learning applications in this context.
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Multidimensional Vulnerability and Sovereign Debt
出版日期: 八月 2022更多 更少Lack of fiscal space and the risk of sovereign debt distress remain key stumbling blocks to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries. Because the allocation of concessional funds and debt relief is essentially reserved to Low Income countries (LICs), official financing strategies and mechanisms to support developing countries provide insufficient support to non-LICs that may need and deserve special consideration concerning official financing. This paper discusses how official financial support allocation could consider countries’ vulnerabilities in critical dimensions, with special reference to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It explores how a multidimensional vulnerability indexes (MVI) could be used to expand the access of vulnerable countries to official financing, including concessional financing, and facilitate constructive debt restructuring when they need it.
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Adding Fuel to the Fire? Inequality and the Spread of COVID-19
出版日期: 七月 2022更多 更少The pandemic has progressed differently across the world. Using monthly data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities, we evaluate whether income inequality is an important factor in explaining cross-country differences in the spread and mortality of the virus. The results show that income inequality is positively correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases. Higher income inequality is associated with a more rapid spread of the virus and an increase in the number of cases, indirectly increasing mortality rates as well. Also, higher levels of inequality are associated with reduced effectiveness of social distancing measures in containing new infections. Thus, elevated inequalities place societies in a more vulnerable position to confront this pandemic, and more unequal countries would need more robust public responses to contain the spread of the virus.
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Expanding Sustainable Infrastructure Investment Opportunities: Guidance for Governments and International Organizations
出版日期: 五月 2022更多 更少As developing countries pursue infrastructure projects, they should aim to address a combination of the pandemic, climate, inequality, and other crises with the right mix of economic and social infrastructure. To do this, governments must invest in a national infrastructure planning process, align planning with the SDGs, and prioritize sustainable infrastructure over infrastructure that does not put people and the planet first. There is no silver bullet for all the challenges; however, incremental changes based on innovative precedents can potentially make a difference on the ground. This paper proposes an analytical framework to consider these challenges and concludes with possible solutions.
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Trust with integrity: Harnessing the Integrity Dividends of Digital Government for Reducing Corruption in Developing Countries
出版日期: 四月 2022更多 更少Does digitalization reduce corruption? What are the benefits of data-driven digital government innovations to strengthen public integrity and advance the Sustainable Development Goals? While the correlation between digitalization and corruption is well established, there is less actionable evidence on the effects of specific digitalization reforms on different types of corruption and the policy channels through which they operate. This paper unbundles the integrity dividends of digital reforms that the pandemic has accelerated. It analyses the rise of integrity-tech and integrity analytics in the anticorruption space, deployed by data-savvy integrity institutions. It also assesses the broader integrity dividends of government digitalization for cutting redtape, reducing discretion and increasing transparency in government services and social transfers. It argues that digital government can be an effective anticorruption strategy, with subtler yet deeper effects. There nevertheless needs to be greater synergies between digital reforms and anticorruption strategies.
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Credit Rating Agencies and Developing Economies
出版日期: 十二月 2021更多 更少The pandemic-induced global economic crisis has contributed to the re-emergence of sovereign default risk, especially for emerging and developing economies, and has directed attention to the impact of the institutions that are tasked with attempting to predict defaults: the international credit rating agencies. This paper describes four main challenges posed by credit rating agencies, especially from a developing and emerging economies perspective: potential bias in ratings, pro-cyclicality of ratings, governance issues and conflicts of interest, and incorporation of climate risk. It concludes with potential policy solutions addressed at ratings agencies, regulators, and policy makers.
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The COVID-19 Crisis: What Explains Cross-country Differences in the Pandemic’s Short-term Economic Impact?
出版日期: 八月 2021更多 更少The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However, the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard, while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper, we use cross-country regression analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition, our results shed light on several aspects of economic resilience. Good governance, provision of fiscal support and strong macroeconomic fundamentals all helped cushion the economic impact. By contrast, a lack of economic diversification – reflected in overreliance on the tourism sector or oil production – has significantly amplified the shock.
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Economic Insecurity and Well-being
出版日期: 七月 2021更多 更少In Article 25 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the United Nations recognized in 1948 the basic human right to “security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond ... control.” This paper examines how economic insecurity is related to, yet different from, poverty and inequality, why it matters for human well-being and how it has been changing in different countries around the world in recent years. The paper concludes with discussion of how economic insecurity has been and will be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic/recession.
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Variations in Covid Strategies: Determinants and Lessons
出版日期: 六月 2021更多 更少This paper examines the experience of a set of countries that performed relatively well in coping with the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis. The goal is to garner insights and lessons that can help countries that may experience initial or second-round outbreaks of the pandemic in the future. The paper finds healthcare, social protection, and overall governance systems as the three main determinants of COVID-19 strategies and their success. Though unique country-specific factors played an important role in confronting the pandemic in some countries, their role was generally mediated through one or the other of the above three main determinants. The findings of the paper suggest that establishing universal healthcare and social protection systems and improvement of governance need to be taken up as an immediate task – and not as a distant goal – even by developing countries. In view of the possibility of recurrence of epidemics in the future, this task has become important.
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What Does the United Nations “say” About Global Agenda? An Exploration of Trends Using Natural Language Processing for Machine Learning
出版日期: 六月 2021更多 更少How has the focus of the UN General Assembly changed over time and how well is the global agenda expressed in these documents? This paper presents a proof-of-concept classifier to examine the evolution of the global agenda expressed and observed in words of the UN General Assembly resolutions. Using natural language processing to identify four categories of resolutions — Sustainable Development, Justice and Law, Human Rights, and Peace and Security — the analysis of 3,765 UN GA resolutions from 2007 to 2019 reveals the changing areas of focus of the Member States and, as a result, of the UN Secretariat. Sustainable Development is slowly gaining importance in the language in UN resolutions.
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How Long Will it Take for LDCs and SIDS to Recover From the Impacts of COVID-19?
出版日期: 六月 2021更多 更少The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is entailing huge costs worldwide. To help developing countries formulate policy responses to minimize negative impacts of the COVID-19, possible size and duration of the shocks on most vulnerable countries, i.e., least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and their resilience to overcome the shocks need to be assessed. This paper quantitatively examines possible paths of LDCs and SIDS recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, using an autoregressive model of income growth and a panel regression model of external demand for LDCs and SIDS. Evidence from the experience of the 2007-08 global financial crisis suggests that the income growth of LDCs and SIDS had not recovered to the level of pre-crisis rates even 5 years after the crisis. This suggests a slower recovery for many LDCs and SIDS, while developed economies were able to achieve a quick recovery. The magnitude of current COVID-19 crisis relative to previous shocks is unknown, and so the regression analysis suggested that, if income in advanced economies fell by 6 per cent in 2020 and bounced back in 2021, growth of per capita income in LDCs and SIDS may need about 4 to 5 years to be able to return to the projected path under the baseline scenario without the COVID-19 crisis. The actual speed and duration of recovery in LDCs and SIDS are likely to be slower and longer, considering other factors, such as additional impacts from shocks related to commodity prices and climate change.
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Beyond the Business Case: The Strategic Role of the Private Sector in Transforming the Real Economy
出版日期: 九月 2020更多 更少Research suggests that achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can open up market opportunities worth USD 12 trillion in the four largest sectors that represent 60 per cent of real economy – food and agriculture; cities; energy and materials; and health and well-being. While the concept of the SDGs creating a win-win situation for all is growing increasingly trendy, further evidence needs to be accumulated to better chart the important discourse on the private sector’s engagement with the SDGs. To this end, this paper aims to shed light on three questions: (i) How is the private sector currently engaging with the SGDs in these sectors?; (ii) What are the key areas of opportunities in which companies can foster long-term value in support of sustainable development?; and (iii) What transformations are needed to enhance the contributions of the private sector? Noting the shift towards a more inclusive, green and circular future requires policy, institutional, technological and human capabilities and political will, this paper provides concrete policy recommendations on some of the first steps required to move towards such transformations.
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Exporters in Africa: What Role for Trade Costs?
作者: Helena Afonso and Sebastian Vergara出版日期: 七月 2020更多 更少This paper investigates the role of trade costs in exporter dynamics in Africa. In comparison to exporters from other regions, African exporting firms are fewer, smaller and relatively less diversified in terms of products and destinations. African countries also display the highest rates of entry, exit and turnover of exporting firms, exporting products and export destinations. This suggests that Africa’s exporting activity is volatile and subject to a lot of experimentation, with exporters having difficulties in maintaining trade relationships. The analysis also confirms that trade costs are a crucial factor in explaining exporter performance in Africa vis-à-vis other regions, but also among African countries. Trade costs play a disproportionate role in affecting the size of new exporters and the survival of exporters in Africa in comparison to other regions. Also, trade costs differences across African countries are a relevant factor in explaining the lower market diversification of exporters from landlocked countries. A key implication is that the African Continental Free Trade Agreement can entail large benefits in the medium-term, especially in terms of export flows and destination markets. Yet, the diversification of export products will likely remain limited without strengthening productive capacities.
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The Economic and Political Costs of Population Displacement and their Impact on the SDGs and Multilateralism
出版日期: 七月 2020更多 更少While migration and population displacement has always been part of the human experience, the context within which it occurs today has materially changed. Migration has become an important part of economic globalization and closely related to countries’ development process. Conflicts, poverty, natural disasters and climate events are also forcing people to migrate in an ever-increasing number. For many low-income countries with large number of internally-displaced people, on the other hand, the high economic costs are making it more difficult for them to invest in SDG implementation. Developing countries also host most of the externally-displaced people at high economic costs, which similarly affects their ability to achieve the SDGs. The political costs of hosting large number of refugees in developed states have also been significant in recent years, particularly in the aftermath of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis. The refugee crisis triggered intense politicization of migration and sharp rise in anti-immigration sentiments and support for populist parties in many countries of the region, leading some governments to tighten their borders, introduce more restrictive immigration policies and retreat from multilateral migration efforts. There is at the same time growing recognition that population displacement and migration is a contemporary global challenge that can only be solved through effective multilateral cooperation. In this context, it becomes important for states to build on the current nascent governance architecture such as the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration so that the benefits of migration and population displacement can be more effectively harnessed for the achievement of the SDGs.
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Economic Properties of Data and the Monopolistic Tendencies of Data Economy: Policies to Limit an Orwellian Possibility
出版日期: 六月 2020更多 更少The potential of data for supporting development is bounded only by the amount and variety of data that can be collected and analyzed, which is to say it is almost infinite. However, if data’s vast benefits are disproportionately captured by few in the society, leaving no one behind – an overarching principle of the Sustainable Development Goals – would be difficult to attain, even when everyone benefits from the use of data. This paper discusses key data properties and dynamics in data economy that create the tendencies for monopolies to emerge, reinforcing unbalanced power between corporates and other actors and generating negative distributional implications. If mismanaged, transformation toward the data economy could end up being an unequalizing force in an already highly-unequal world. In the context of data economy, this paper presents critiques of the common approaches to deal with monopolies. Self-correction in market is unlikely to happen fast enough but breaking up or nationalizing data monopolies are undesirable from effectiveness and innovation perspectives. Strengthening data ownership is key to rebalancing the power asymmetry between corporates and digital subjects, but difficulty of data valuation needs to be overcome. Analyses in this paper support further exploring the idea of setting up an independent, accountable and forward-looking Digital Authority that has both competition and noncompetition goals.
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A Post-SDG Summit Governance Primer: Interlinking the Institutional, Peace and Justice Dimensions of SDG16 (2016–2019)
作者: Peride K. Blind出版日期: 六月 2020更多 更少As the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development enters its fifth year of implementation, it is opportune to ask how governance is understood and implemented around the world. In fact, one can go further to probe the extent to which governments are cognizant of the principles undergirding effective governance. This paper examines the ways in which governance has been operationalized by countries, major groups and other stakeholders since the first round of Voluntary National Reviews at the High-level Political Forum (HLPF) of 2016. It does this based on the qualitative overview of the Synthesis reports of Voluntary National Reviews (2016–2029), and the quantitative analysis of three SDG databases: Voluntary National Reviews, SDG Good Practices and the SDG Acceleration Actions. It starts with a literature review of the multidimensional concept of governance. The three databases are then scoped through a series of keywords associated with the SDG16 governance targets. It finds that although SDG 16 is catalytic to progress on all other SDGs, its governance dimension does not receive due focus. The article concludes with several action areas to mainstream the governance dimension of SDG16 in sustainable development.
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Some Considerations on External Audits of SDG Implementation
出版日期: 六月 2020更多 更少Supreme audit institutions (SAIs) have started to audit the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While there is no one single audit model or approach to audit SDG implementation, audits should incorporate a few core methodological features related to the principles of the 2030 Agenda. Four methodological and practical challenges associated with conducting performance audits of SDG implementation, as they differ from traditional audits, are discussed in this paper: 1) problem definition, including the level of investigation in the SDG hierarchy of goals and targets and the audit scope; 2) conceptual challenges inherent in going from the level of individual entities or programs to that of whole-of-government performance; 3) practical considerations that should inform an analysis of the coherence of government actions in a given policy area; and 4) the ways in which audit guidance at the international level can help individual SAIs going forward. Ultimately, this paper aims to inform the broader discussion on evaluation of the SDGs.
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E-participation: A Quick Overview of Recent Qualitative Trends
作者: United Nations and David Le Blanc出版日期: 五月 2020更多 更少This paper briefly takes stock of two decades of e-participation initiatives based on a limited review of the academic literature. The purpose of the paper is to complement the results of the e-government Survey 2020. As such, the emphasis is on aspects that the e-government survey (based on analysis of e-government portals and on quantitative indicators) does not capture directly. Among those are the challenges faced by e-participation initiatives and key areas of attention for governments. The paper maps the field of e-participation and related activities, as well as its relationships with other governance concepts. Areas of recent development in terms of e-participation applications are briefly reviewed. The paper selectively highlights conclusions from the literature on different participation tools, as well as a list of key problematic areas for policy makers. The paper concludes that while e-participation platforms using new technologies have spread rapidly in developed countries in the first decade of the 2000s and in developing countries during the last 10 years, it is not clear that their multiplication has translated into broader or deeper citizen participation. Beyond reasons related to technology access and digital skills, factors such as lack of understanding of citizens’ motivations to participate and the reluctance of public institutions to genuinely share agenda setting and decision-making power seem to play an important role in the observed limited progress.
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How Relevant is Governance to Financing for Development and Partnerships? Interlinking SDG16 and SDG17 at the Target Level
作者: United Nations and Peride K. Blind出版日期: 五月 2020更多 更少It would be hard to fathom any Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) being achieved without either adequate human and financial resources and partnerships or institutions that are effective, inclusive and accountable. One would expect, therefore, that two of the most cross-cutting SDGs of the 2030 Agenda, SDG16 on Peace, justice and strong institutions and SDG17 on the Means of implementation and partnerships for development would receive ample attention in scholarly work and policy analysis. A quick overview of the literature reveals, however, that although SDG16 and SDG17 are examined quite extensively in and of themselves, linkages between the two seldom receive attention. This article attempts to fill in the gap by undertaking a preliminary comparative analysis of the targets of these two Goals. It asks if certain means of implementation included in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development (AAAA) and in SDG17 can address some of the governance challenges covered by SDG16 targets, and vice-versa. The overall aim of the paper is twofold: (i) to provide ideas on how a targeted focus on SDG16-SDG17 interactions can assist in mainstreaming the AAAA into the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development[1], and (ii) to elucidate how a public administration focus can be instrumental in doing the latter and in interlinking SDG16 and SDG17.
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The Role of Productive and Technological Capabilities on Export Dynamics in Developing Countries
作者: United Nations and Sebastian Vergara出版日期: 十一月 2019更多 更少Productive and technological capabilities matter. The more conventional strands of the literature have emphasized them as major engines of export, growth and development. But how they matter is less clear, and many open questions remain on how capabilities influence export dynamics at microeconomic level. This paper empirically investigates their role on export dynamics in 40 developing countries between 2002 and 2012. In doing so, the paper exploits a country-sector-year database containing exporter-level statistical information. The empirical analysis shows that, within sectors, countries with higher productive capacities have more exporters, and the exporters are larger and charge higher prices for their products, even after controlling for level of development, size of the economy, commodity-dependency and other variables. The results also confirm a positive relationship between technological capabilities and diversification: within sectors, exporters in countries with stronger capabilities tend to export a higher number of products and to more destination markets. Finally, technological capabilities play a specific role in high-technology sectors, such as electronics, electrical machinery and equipment and pharmaceuticals. In these sectors, exporters from countries with higher R&D investments are more diversified in terms of destination markets. Thus, the paper shows that, even comparing exporters’ behaviour only among developing countries, stronger productive and technological capabilities are significantly related to the “extensive” and “intensive” margin of exports, diversification across products and destinations, and product quality; all crucial aspects of developing countries’ insertion in global markets. Overall, the paper underscores the role of capabilities not only on developing countries’ macroeconomic resilience to trade shocks, but also on their medium-term development prospects.
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Humanitarian SDGs
作者: Peride K. Blind出版日期: 五月 2019更多 更少The humanitarian-development divide has long been a contentious debate in both academia and government. Despite the recent surge in the cost, frequency, duration and severity of humanitarian crises, humanitarian and development disciplines and communities of practice have continued to operate in silos. This article aims to bridge the humanitarian-development divide by interlinking the Agenda for Humanity and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The newly proposed context-conflict-contingency model of humanitarian-development connections constitutes the conceptual foundation, which is then tested by the findings of the network analysis of the 169 SDG targets of the 2030 Agenda and the 5 responsibilities, 24 transformations and 32 core commitments of the Agenda for Humanity. The basic premise is that if policy makers can locate the linkages between the two agendas, they can more readily think about how certain SDG targets can work towards the achievement of both development and humanitarian goals. Stepsthat lead to operational guidelines for doing so are not covered in this article. They could be the topic of the next research agendas.
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Art is Long, Life is Short
出版日期: 五月 2019更多 更少Between the many resolutions, speeches, reports and other documents that are produced each year, the United Nations is awash in text. It is an ongoing challenge to create a coherent and useful picture of this corpus. In particular, there is an interest in measuring how the work of the United Nations system aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). There is a need for a scalable, objective, and consistent way to measure how similar any given publication is to each of the 17 SDGs. This paper explains a proof-of-concept process for building such a system using machine learning algorithms. By creating a model of the 17 SDGs it is possible to measure how similar the contents of individual publications are to each of the goals — their SDG Score. This paper also shows how this system can be used in practice by computing the SDG Scores for a limited selection of DESA publications and providing some analytics.
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Lessons for Today from Past Periods of Rapid Technological Change
作者: Chris Vickers and Nicolas L. Ziebarth出版日期: 三月 2019更多 更少We provide a history of past periods of rapid technological change starting from the Industrial Revolution continuing up to today. We find that it takes decades for technological breakthroughs to make a difference to the aggregate economy. The reason for this delay is that to realize the value of these breakthroughs requires complementary investments. Second, for good or for bad, government has played an important role in facilitating these transitions through both investments in physical infrastructure and legal reforms. We also emphasize that because technological breakthroughs are difficult to predict, the responses of governments are necessarily improvisational.
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The Role of External Audits in Enhancing Transparency and Accountability for the Sustainable Development Goals
出版日期: 二月 2019更多 更少This paper examines the involvement of supreme audit institutions (SAIs) in auditing the preparedness of governments for implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) since 2015. These audits have covered institutional arrangements put in place to implement the SDGs, the mobilization of resources, and monitoring and evaluation frameworks. SDG preparedness audits have produced valuable information that is not necessarily available from other national processes linked with SDG follow-up and review. As such, audit recommendations can be a powerful tool to help governments improve SDG implementation. The paper reflects on the impact that SDG audits have made, and on the challenges and opportunities for SAIs that have engaged in this exercise. While many of these challenges are generic to the work of SAIs, SDG audits also present specific political, institutional and technical problems. Finally, the paper explores questions that this new area of engagement poses for SAIs, including the long-term prospects for institutionalization of SDG audits and the relationship with other accountability mechanisms for the SDGs at the national level.
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The 2030 Agenda
作者: Filipa Correia, Philipp Erfurth and Julie Bryhn出版日期: 十一月 2018更多 更少This paper conceptualizes recently negotiated international agreements, particularly the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as a collective roadmap to overcome challenges associated with globalization. By analyzing the effects and implications of globalization on societies and economies, the paper highlights concrete aspects of the international commitments that address globalization challenges in the three dimensions of sustainable development. Particular focus is placed on global production patterns, labor markets, poverty and inequality, global imbalances, migration and climate change. The paper concludes that, in the context of a changing political economy of globalization and multilateralism, concrete steps to be taken should include efforts to forge a new social contract, tackle inequalities within and between countries, address adverse effects of globalization on domestic economies, promote decent work, strengthen global institutions and tackle environmental challenges.
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From “Structural Change” to “Transformative Change”
作者: S. Nazrul Islam and Kenneth Iversen出版日期: 二月 2018更多 更少This paper examines the relationship between “Transformative Change,” advocated by the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development, and “Structural Change,” which has been a longstanding and important concept in Development Economics. It shows that while structural change is still relevant, growing concerns for social development and environmental protection made it necessary to switch to the more encompassing concept of “Transformative Change” that provides greater space for inclusion and interaction of all three dimensions of sustainable development. The paper notes that, in the era of greater globalization, countries have followed more varied patterns of structural change, all of which are not equally suitable for sustainable development. The paper notes that Transformative Change subsumes structural change, and it discusses the modifications that structural change needs to be more compatible with sustainable development.
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A Scoping Study of PPP Guidelines
作者: Motoko Aizawa出版日期: 一月 2018更多 更少The Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the Third Conference on Financing for Development underscores sustainable and resilient infrastructure as a pre-requisite to sustainable development. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are expected to deliver infrastructure in furtherance of this Agenda. In view of this expectation, twelve prominent PPP guidelines were reviewed for alignment with the Addis Agenda and key public governance factors. The research found that the PPP guidelines are not sufficiently aligned with the Addis Agenda, have insufficient sustainability content, and do not acknowledge the role of the public in PPPs. It recommends that the next generation of the guidelines address these aspects.This paper is an updated version of the draft paper presented to the expert group meeting of the Inter-agency Task Force in December 2016. The author is grateful for discussion and comments received on the earlier versions of this paper. Some are reflected in the paper without attribution, owing to the Chatham House rule followed at the meeting. The author takes full responsibility for the contents of this report. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the view of the United Nations.
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Towards a More Comprehensive Assessment of Fiscal Space
作者: Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng and Ingo Pitterle出版日期: 一月 2018更多 更少The prolonged sluggishness in the world economy since the global financial crisis has led to growing calls for a reorientation of macroeconomic policies toward more supportive fiscal measures. Such calls inevitably invite the question of how much fiscal space governments actually have. This paper provides a systematic review of the most popular definitions and measures of fiscal space. It examines the evolution of fiscal space measures and discusses the pros and cons of each measure. It then outlines several key factors that could help to further strengthen existing approaches and allow a more comprehensive assessment of fiscal space. By illustrating how different measures paint considerably different pictures of an economys fiscal space, the paper underscores the need to use a dashboard of indicators.
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Climate Change and Social Inequality
作者: Nazrul Islam and John Winkel出版日期: 十月 2017更多 更少This paper offers a unifying conceptual framework for understanding the relationship between climate change and “within-country inequalities, referred here collectively as social inequality. Available evidence indicates that this relationship is characterized by a vicious cycle, whereby initial inequality causes the disadvantaged groups to suffer disproportionately from the adverse effects of climate change, resulting in greater subsequent inequality. The paper identifies three main channels through which the inequality-aggravating effect of climate change materializes, namely (a) increase in the exposure of the disadvantaged groups to the adverse effects of climate change; (b) increase in their susceptibility to damage caused by climate change; and (c) decrease in their ability to cope and recover from the damage suffered. The paper presents evidence to illustrate each of the processes above. It also notes that the same analytical framework can be used to discuss the relationship between climate change and inequality across countries. Finally, it points to the ways in which the analysis can be helpful in making relevant policy decisions.
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Promoting Structural Transformation
作者: Clovis Freire出版日期: 九月 2017更多 更少Economic development is associated with structural transformation and the increase of complexity of production and exports. This paper examines whether strategic diversification is required to increase economic complexity or whether market incentives would be sufficient to drive this process of catching-up. The paper applies empirical methods of the strand of the literature on economic complexity to examine how path dependency and the demand for potential new products affect economic diversification. It argues that strategic diversification is required in cases when demand factors are very likely to create incentives for diversification towards less complex products, which hinders the increase of productive capacities of countries. The paper presents the results of analysis considering 221 economies and shows that less diversified economies would not be able to rely on market incentives alone. They have to strategically diversify towards more complex products, which require the selective promotion of economic activities through the use of targeted industrial, infrastructure, trade, investment and private sector development policies.
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Economic Diversification
作者: Clovis Freire出版日期: 八月 2017更多 更少Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognized in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylized facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns in general has been only loosely associated with economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents a model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change that is able to replicate empirical regularities related to economic diversification. The model is used to study strategies to foster diversification in poorer countries, which could help to better target action in the implementation of internationally agreed goals related to the economic diversification of these countries.
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Mapping the Linkages between Oceans and Other Sustainable Development Goals
作者: David Le Blanc, Clovis Freire and Marjo Vierros出版日期: 二月 2017更多 更少This paper maps interrelationships among targets of the Sustainable Development Goal dedicated to oceans (SDG 14), as well as interrelationships between those targets and other SDGs. This is done using a large number of UN reports as well as scientific publications. The literature identifies many linkages among the targets of SDG 14; most of these targets are potentially synergistic with one another. Many linkages also exist between SDG 14 targets and other SDGs. Different targets under SDG 14 link to different SDGs. This has implications for policy discussions on how to achieve progress on SDG 14. The interrelationships that we highlight can be used as a tool for dialogue between policy and scientific communities working on oceans, in particular for assessing the status of knowledge on the various linkages, as well as identifying linkages that are likely to matter most for progress on SDG 14.
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Public-Private Partnerships and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
作者: K. S. Jomo, Anis Chowdhury, Krishnan Sharma and Daniel Platz出版日期: 二月 2016更多 更少In light of a cautious emphasis given to public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a mechanism to finance infrastructure projects and highlighting the need for capacity building and knowledge sharing at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa, this paper reviews the extant literature on the subject and identifies areas requiring better understanding and institutional innovation for ensuring value for money, minimizing contingent fiscal risk and improving accountability. An institutional capacity to create, manage and evaluate PPPs is essential to ensure that they become an effective instrument of delivery of important services, such as infrastructure. There is also a need for a common definition of PPPs and internationally accepted guidelines, including uniform accounting and reporting standards.
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What Can Uzbekistan Tell Us about Industrial Policy that We Did Not Already Know?
作者: Vladimir Popov and Anis Chowdhury出版日期: 二月 2016更多 更少This paper discusses Uzbekistan’s recent experience with structural shifts and industrial policy and the larger implications for existing theories of industrial policy. The paper has a particular focus on various industry policy instruments. Two major hypotheses are discussed: (1) the hypothesis of Haussmann, Hwang and Rodrik (the more technologically sophisticated the export structure, the better for growth) and (2) the hypothesis of Justin Yifu Lin (export specialization should build on existing comparative advantages and not jump over the necessary technological stages).
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How Well are the Links Between Education and Other Sustainable Development Goals Covered in UN Flagship Reports?
作者: Katia Vladimirovaa and David Le Blanc出版日期: 十月 2015更多 更少In 2015, a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will succeed the Millennium Development Goals as reference goals for international development for the period 2015-2030. Education was identified as a standalone goal (SDG4). Epistemic communities have documented a number of links between education and other SDG areas, and policy makers have long recognized many of them. Based on an exhaustive content analysis of 40 global reports, this paper examines how well such links are represented in flagship publications of the United Nations system. Taken together, the reports identify links between education and all the SDGs, with the notable exception of SDG 14 on oceans. For most of the SDGs, causal links are identified in both directions, from education to other goal areas and vice-versa. The most emphasized connections are those between education and growth (SDG8) and gender (SDG5). By contrast, links with energy (SDG7), water (SDG 6), cities (SDG 11), sustainable consumption and production (SDG 12) and climate change (SDG 13) receive much less attention in the sum of UN flagship publications. While some causal links are identified and highlighted as important, relevant constraints are sometimes not extensively discussed, and few concrete policy options to act on those links are provided. Going forward, it would be important to assess whether the messages contained in UN flagship reports adequately reflect the state of scientific knowledge and the lessons learnt from development programs that focus on education in relation to specific SDGs. The systematic analysis provided here can offer a basis for an integrated analysis of policy priorities for education as a whole.
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The Contexts of Social Inclusion
作者: Hilary Silver出版日期: 十月 2015更多 更少In light of the emphasis on “inclusion” in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this paper contends that social exclusion and inclusion are context-dependent concepts in at least three senses. First, the ideal of an inclusive society varies by country and by region. Second, different places have different histories, cultures, institutions and social structures. These influence the economic, social and political dimensions of social exclusion and the interplay among them. Third, context – where one lives – shapes access to resources and opportunities. Social inclusion is thus spatially uneven. The paper also shows how context matters, identifying some of the mechanisms by which nation-states and localities influence processes of economic, social, and political exclusion and inclusion.
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Inequality and Environmental Sustainability
作者: S. Nazrul Islam出版日期: 八月 2015更多 更少This paper synthesizes the evidence of a negative correlation between income inequality and environmental quality. It shows that inequality exerts adverse impact on environmental outcomes through several channels, including the household, community, national, and international channels. These channels however overlap with one another and can thus reinforce the impact of inequality. Other dimensions of inequality, in particular gender inequality, also impact environmental quality negatively. The concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is not that helpful in explaining the negative correlation between inequality and environmental quality. The findings of the paper suggest that reduction of inequality will have an important role in achieving environmental sustainability.
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Inequality and the Tails
作者: Alex Cobham, Luke Schlogl and Andy Sumner出版日期: 七月 2015更多 更少This paper revisits the earlier assessments of the Palma Proposition and the ‘Palma Ratio’. The former is a proposition that currently changes in income or consumption inequality are (almost) exclusively due to changes in the share of the richest 10 per cent and poorest 40 per cent because the ‘middle’ group between the richest and poorest always capture approximately 50 per cent of gross national income (GNI). The latter is a measure of income or consumption concentration based on the above-mentioned proposition and calculated as the GNI capture of the richest 10 per cent divided by that of the poorest 40 per cent. In this paper we do the following: note the use already being made of the Palma Ratio; consider the issue of hidden (or partially hidden) inequality and how the Palma may be useful in bringing this to light in the parts of the distribution that we are likely to be more interested in (the richest and the poorest); revisit the empirical basis of the Palma Proposition (the relative stability of the ‘middle’) with a new and expanded dataset across and within developing and developed countries. We find the data reaffirms the Palma Proposition and that the proposition is getting stronger over time. We also discuss the theoretical and empirical questions and implications arising from the Palma Proposition as areas for future exploration.
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Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap?
作者: S. Nazrul Islam出版日期: 六月 2015更多 更少China has departed from the East Asian model of development by letting inequality to rise to a high level, which is contributing to China’s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the “inequality-trap,” which may then lead it to the “middle income trap (MIT).” Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid MIT. Measures along both the “wage route” and the “redistributive route” can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the “cooperative route” to more equitable distribution.
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Towards Integration at Last?
作者: David Le Blanc出版日期: 三月 2015更多 更少In 2014, UN Member States proposed a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which will succeed the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as reference goals for the international development community for the period 2015-2030. The proposed goals and targets can be seen as a network, in which links among goals exist through targets that refer to multiple goals. Using network analysis techniques, we show that some thematic areas covered by the SDGs are well connected among one another. Other parts of the network have weaker connections with the rest of the system. The SDGs as a whole are a more integrated system than the MDGs were, which may facilitate policy integration across sectors. However, many of the links among goals that have been documented in biophysical, economic and social dimensions are not explicitly reflected in the SDGs. Beyond the added visibility that the SDGs provide to links among thematic areas, attempts at policy integration across various areas will have to be based on studies of the biophysical, social and economic systems.
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The Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP)
作者: Rahul Lahoti, Arjun Jayadev and Sanjay G. Reddy出版日期: 一月 2015更多 更少We introduce two separate datasets (The Global Consumption Dataset (GCD) and The Global Income Dataset (GID)) containing an unprecedented portrait of consumption and income of persons over time, within and across countries, around the world. The benchmark version of the dataset presents estimates in PPP units of monthly real consumption and income for every decile of the population (a ‘consumption/income profile’) for 133 countries and more than half a century (1960-2012). We describe the construction of the datasets and demonstrate some possible uses by presenting preliminary results concerning the consumption distribution, poverty and inequality for the world and specific country aggregates.
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Redistributive Policies for Sustainable Development
作者: Pierre Kohler出版日期: 一月 2015更多 更少Analyses of redistributive policies often focus on income flows to examine the nexus between redistribution and economic growth. With strengthening signs of growing economic inequality in many countries, an increasing number of economists investigated the existence and nature of a hypothetical trade-off between economic growth and equity. As signs of unsustainable development are strengthening more generally, this paper proposes to look at the broader nexus between redistribution, equity and sustainable development, emphasizing its social and environmental dimensions. It does so by first proposing an analytical framework defining the role of redistributive policies in shaping the private income cycle as well as the public revenue-expenditure cycle. This framework distinguishes between the stock of income-generating assets (such as human capital and wealth, including land and industrial and financial capital) and deriving income flows in order to clarify the difference between the two sides of in-equity (i.e. in-equality of opportunity and in-equality of outcome), which remain intertwined in the growth-equity trade-off debate. This stock-flow approach is then used to outline key linkages between redistributive policies, in-equity and un-sustainable development. Contrasting the potential scope of redistributive policies with the more narrow set of policies that have been implemented in most countries/regions over the last 30 years, the paper discusses 14 avenues for redistributive policies to promote greater equity, economic empowerment and sustainable development.
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Absorbing Innovative Financial Flows
作者: Rehman Sobhan出版日期: 十月 2014更多 更少This paper explores the scope for Innovative Development Finance (IDF) to compensate for declining Official Development Assistance (ODA) and/or to enhance the efficiency of ODA. It shows that IDF has not helped much to increase the volume of aid. With regard to efficiency, the role of IDF-related mechanisms remains controversial. In view of the above, it may be more productive to focus on other resources available to Asia. The paper points to two such resources, namely the surpluses accumulated in the form of reserves, Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), etc. and the migrant remittances. Efficient utilization of these two sources can vastly change the development finance landscape in Asia.
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Recent Downturn in Emerging Economies and Macroeconomic Implications for Sustainable Development
出版日期: 十月 2014更多 更少The paper discusses the progress of Indian economy and its policies since the broad-based structural reforms initiated in 1991 with a special focus on the recent downturn following the global financial crisis. The paper is structured into two parts: first part discusses the major economic and social achievements of India since 1991, it identifies the causes of the recent downturn, and the policy responses to revive the economy. In the second part, the paper outlines the major challenges India is facing and the policies and reforms that need to be implement to achieve sustainable development.
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Towards a Sustainable Social Model
作者: Nazrul Islam出版日期: 九月 2014更多 更少Implementation of the Agenda 21 bifurcated into two tracks. While the economic and social development agenda gelled into the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the environmental protection agenda moved along a different track, represented by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), etc. This bifurcation also led to very different “domain configurations.” While there were some advantages of this bifurcation, it led to a conflict between the human development and the environmental goals. This paper presents a framework for bringing environment and development together in the UN post-2015 agenda.
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Recipients and Contributors
出版日期: 七月 2014更多 更少The new role that middle-income countries (MICs) play in the global landscape obliges international community to review the configuration of the development cooperation system. On the one hand, MICs still face considerable structural deficits that affect their process of development; on the other, international community needs MICs to participate more intensively in the international agenda. Development cooperation can support both purposes, although for that to happen, substantial changes are required in traditional approaches and procedures of current international aid. This paper analyses these subjects with the objective of helping decision-makers come to good decisions.
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Recent Macroeconomic Trends in Emerging Economies and Implications for Development
作者: Eustáquio Reis出版日期: 六月 2014更多 更少The paper reviews the sluggish growth and inclusive developments of the Brazilian economy in the last decade. The first section analyzes the macroeconomic performance pointing export growth as the engine of growth. The second evaluates social policies and their relationship with the improvements in the labor market. The third examines Brazilian policy reactions to the global crisis that managed to recover consumption but failed to sustain investment and growth. The discussion of challenges for a sustainable development concludes the paper. Investment in education and infrastructure are consensual policy advices but there are plenty of disagreements and controversies with regards to industrial policies, financing strategies and the role to be played by the public sector.
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A Comparative Study of the Forecasting Performance of Three International Organizations
作者: Pingfan Hong and Zhibo Tan出版日期: 六月 2014更多 更少This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias and efficiency. In comparison, the forecasting performance of the United Nations is found to be marginally better than the other two organizations during the period of 2000-2012. However, the forecasts of all these organizations missed the Great Recession of 2009 by a large margin.
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Crisis Mismanagement in the US and Europe
作者: Yilmaz Akyüz出版日期: 二月 2014更多 更少There are two major failings in policy interventions in the crisis in the US and Europe: the reluctance to remove the debt overhang through timely, orderly and comprehensive restructuring and the shift to fiscal austerity after an initial reflation. These have resulted in excessive reliance on monetary means with central banks entering uncharted policy waters, including zero-bound interest rates and the acquisition of long-term public and private bonds. This ultra-easy monetary policy has not been very effective in reducing the debt overhang and stimulating spending. It has, however, generated financial fragility, at home and abroad, particularly in the case of the US as the issuer of the key reserve currency, and exit is full of pitfalls. Although ultra-easy money is still with us, the markets have begun pricing-in the normalization of monetary policy in the US and this is the main reason for the turbulence in emerging economies. Policy response to an intensification of the stress in the South needs to depart from past practices and should include measures to involve the private creditors in crisis resolution and provision of market support and liquidity by central banks in major advanced economies.
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The New Aid Paradigm
作者: Geske Dijkstra出版日期: 十二月 2013更多 更少From around 2000 onward, donors and recipient governments embarked upon a new aid paradigm. The most important elements include increased selectivity in the aid allocation, more ownership of recipient countries based on nationally elaborated PRSPs, and more donor alignment and harmonization via program-based approaches such as budget support. The paper assesses the theoretical merits of this new paradigm, identifying some contradictions and limitations, and then examines its implementation over the past decade and its results. The empirical results largely confirm the earlier identified weaknesses and limitations. The paper concludes with some suggestions for improving aid practices.
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The Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Major Developed Countries on Developing Countries
作者: Tatiana Fic出版日期: 十月 2013更多 更少The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures adopted in developed countries (the US, UK, Euro Area and Japan) on developing economies (Brazil, China, India and Russia). First, we analyse the domestic and cross-border financial market impact of unconventional monetary policy announcements by central banks, using a series of event studies. We find that quantitative easing (QE) by the FED, BoE, ECB and BoJ influenced long term yields, equity prices, and possibly exchange rates both in the developed and developing countries (for example we find that QE resulted in decreases in long term yields by about 125 basis points in the US, about 100 basis points in the UK, and about 50 basis points in the Euro Area and Japan). Next, using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM, we conduct a series of macroeconomic simulations that allow us to assess the impact of lower yields, higher equity prices, and lower investment premia (attributable to unconventional monetary policy measures) on the real economy in the developed and developing countries (for example, we find that lower yields only, could have stimulated GDP (average change in levels, over a 5 year period) by about 1 /₄ per cent inthe US, 1 /₂ per cent in the UK, /₄ per cent in the Euro Area and Japan, about 1 per cent in Brazil and Russia (in Brazil more than Russia), and /₄ per cent in India and China (in India more than China)).
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Overcoming the Technical and Political Difficulties of Using SDRs for Development Purposes
作者: Bilge Erten出版日期: 八月 2013更多 更少This paper argues that the technical and political difficulties of using SDRs for development can be overcome. This requires an SDR-based reserve system and a fully SDR-funded IMF. The IMF would allocate SDRs counter-cyclically and treat them as deposits of countries, which could be used in lending to them. A substitution account is needed for a smooth transition from major reserve currencies to SDRs. To avoid the deficiency payments, a counterpart account – which would be credited when the substitution account is in surplus and debited when in deficit – is required. Alternatively, politically-feasible cost-sharing mechanisms could be designed.
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Half a Century of Proposals for ‘Innovative’ Development Financing
作者: Barry Herman出版日期: 七月 2013更多 更少This paper recalls the history of proposed “innovative” mechanisms by which governments could strengthen financial cooperation for development. Such proposals sought more predictable and assured financial flows to facilitate recipient country programming, while also substantially adding to the volume of highly concessional international support for development. International discussions of these proposals mostly began in the 1960s and in many cases continue today, although implementation thus far has been modest. These discussions are contrasted with generally more recent proposals that proponents call “innovative” but that do not share the characteristics of the more radical thinking underlining the older proposals.
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The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Austerity
出版日期: 六月 2013更多 更少This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal austerity. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation measures for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009, we find that fiscal consolidation episodes have typically led to a significant and long-lasting increase in inequality. Tax-based consolidation episodes tend to have a larger and more persistent effect on inequality than spendingbased consolidations. The evidence also shows that while fiscal consolidations have typically led to a fall in wage income, they have not had a significant effect on profit and rent income.
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The International Development Strategy Beyond 2015
作者: Ana Luiza Cortez出版日期: 十二月 2012更多 更少Demographic dynamics have strong repercussions for development and need to be addressed in the definition of the global development strategy for post 2015. Despite divergent trends across countries, international migration off ers no definitive solution. A comprehensive approach is needed. Countries with declining and ageing workforces need to sustain or raise productivity. Countries with growing labour forces need to embark in growth patterns that are labour intensive, offer possibilities for dynamic structural change and productivity increases. Both cases require investments in education, skill formation and upgrading. Th e impact of population ageing on economic variables is nuanced but should not be ignored.
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From Aid to Global Development Policy
出版日期: 九月 2012更多 更少The international community has advanced in reforming the international aid system. Such reform comes at a time when there is a renewed skepticism about aid effectiveness and when the crisis sheds new doubts about the sustainability of donors’ commitments. At the same time, the international reality has changed as a consequence of the growing heterogeneity of the developing world, the new geography of global poverty, the emergence of new powers from the developing world, the presence of new aid players and, finally, the enlargement of the sphere of international public goods. Such changes demand a deeper reform in the development cooperation system.
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Aid Securitization
作者: Suhas Ketkar出版日期: 八月 2012更多 更少The International Finance Facility for Immunization (IFFIm), which securitized future aid commitments by donor countries, has been successful in providing funds to immunize children in poor countries. Since capital is likely to remain scarce, the paper evaluates the prospects of setting up IFFIm-like mechanisms to fund a variety of objectives. Two broad conclusions emerge. First, replicating IFFIm could prove challenging because donor pledges will lack the desired credibility. Second, credit enhancements like third party guarantees, excess coverage, and channeling of pledges through a preferred creditor, could overcome this deficiency. Finally, Advance Market Commitments and Cash on Delivery are alternatives to deliver some of the advantages of IFFIm.
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Innovative Development Finance
出版日期: 八月 2012更多 更少This paper assesses the scope and impact of innovative development finance (IDF) in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries in the 2000s. It also reports the views from the region’s relevant actors regarding IDF. The paper finds that very little IDF flowed to LAC in the 2000s, though it was significant for a few, poorer, and smaller countries, such as Haiti and Nicaragua. The views from the region suggest that LAC should fight for greater share of existing and prospective IDF, but also make better use of other available resources, such as remittances and flows through South-South cooperation.
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Building a Stable and Equitable Global Monetary System
作者: Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo出版日期: 八月 2012更多 更少This paper argues that SDRs should become a more relevant instrument of international monetary cooperation. This requires transforming them into a pure reserve asset and the IMF into a fully SDR-funded institution. SDRs would then be issued counter-cyclically and treated as deposits of countries in the IMF, which can in turn lend to countries. This approach would correct basic deficiencies of the current global monetary system. Complementary reforms include a substitution account for an orderly and smooth transition from major reserve currencies to SDRs, and the issuance of SDR-denominated bonds as an alternative to other major short-term assets.
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Should Global Goal Setting Continue, and How, in the Post-2015 Era?
出版日期: 七月 2012更多 更少The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were introduced to monitor implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration which set out a vision for inclusive and sustainable globalization based on human rights principles. This paper critically assesses the MDG experience including their policy purpose, ethical commitments, political origins, and consequences. It proposes that post-2015 goals should be based on principles of equity, sustainability and human security and address key contemporary challenges such as climate change, unemployment, inequality and global market instability.
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Learning from the Past
作者: Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Milica Uvalic出版日期: 六月 2012更多 更少During the last decade, the world economy has experienced a worsening in financial stability, food prices, income inequality and environmental conditions. Seven development strategies are evaluated to determine which could help solve ‘quadruple crisis’. These strategies are assessed using a common methodology which first documents the economic, social, environmental and food security policies adopted, and then assesses their outcomes using 11 performance indicators. The strategies are then ranked on the basis of their overall success score. While all strategies produced some positive results, the East Asian Miracle and the new Latin American development approach generated the greatest number of favourable outcomes.
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Financing Small-Scale Infrastructure Investments in Developing Countries
作者: Daniel L. Bond, Daniel Platz and Magnus Magnusson出版日期: 五月 2012更多 更少In most developing countries a shortage of long-term, local-currency financing for small-scale infrastructure projects impedes local economic development. Inadequate fiscal transfers, little own source revenue and low creditworthiness make it difficult for local governments to fully fund projects on their own. This paper proposes the use of project finance as a means to attract financing from domestic banks and institutional investors. Donors can play a catalytic role by providing technical assistance to develop projects and credit enhancement to attract commercial financing.
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Financial Sector Compensation and Excess Risk-Taking
作者: Krishnan Sharma出版日期: 四月 2012更多 更少This paper surveys the ways that the structure and magnitude of financial sector compensation can generate incentives for excessive risk taking. It also highlights the underlying economic and institutional forces that have underpinned and sustained these pay structures, including aspects of corporate governance in financial institutions, regulatory capture by financial elites, the nature of the labour market for finance professionals and the extended economic boom of the 1990s and 2000s. Th e measures endorsed by the Financial Stability Board and the G20 for sound compensation practices do not go far enough in several areas; a broader set of measures need consideration.
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Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play
出版日期: 四月 2012更多 更少To achieve the greatest possible human welfare, the Stockholm Environment Institute’s Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model calls for rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to keep cumulative 21st century carbon dioxide emissions below 2,000 Gt. We explain why as some other models claim very slow emission reductions are best. We make three changes to the basic assumptions of the well-known DICE model to include the most recent estimates of economic damages from climate change, express greater concern about the well-being of future generations, and expect rich countries to invest in emissions and poverty reduction in poorer countries.
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The Imprudence of Labour Market Flexibilization in a Fiscally Austere World
作者: Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta出版日期: 四月 2012更多 更少This paper assesses the effects of combining fiscal austerity with flexibilization policies aimed at reducing labour costs and increasing competitiveness. Core to our analysis is a global perspective where the aggregation problem is fully taken into account. We derive a stylized macroeconomic framework of distributive and demand dynamics. We show that even in export-led regimes, after considering global feedbacks, flexibilization policies do not lead to higher income and employment. Rather, the end result is contractionary. Over time, the world economy is essentially wage-led and responds positively to coordinated Keynesian stimuli.
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Is the Distribution of Foreign Aid MDG-Sensitive?
作者: Degol Hailu and Raquel Tsukada出版日期: 二月 2012更多 更少This paper examines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) is disproportionately allocated to countries that need to make the most progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We expect MDG-sensitive distribution of foreign aid – or a good donor-recipient match – to be guided by the principles of the Global Partnership for Development. When we apply the MDG-sensitivity criteria for aid allocation, the results indicate that ODA allocation since the Millennium Declaration has become more MDG-sensitive – ODA is given to countries that need it most. While such trends in aid disbursements are commendable, total aid flows, however, fall short of promised levels.
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Super-Cycles of Commodity Prices since the Mid-Nineteenth Century
作者: Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo出版日期: 二月 2012更多 更少Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century.
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International Tax Cooperation and Innovative Development Finance
作者: Valpy FitzGerald出版日期: 一月 2012更多 更少Effective income and wealth taxation is a central development cooperation issue because taxation of foreign companies and their own residents’ overseas assets remain problematic for developing countries. Estimates of the scale of undeclared expatriated profits and overseas assets, and thus the income tax lost to developing countries, are large relative to other forms of innovative development finance. The international cooperation required involves information exchange between jurisdictions to allow the full application of existing tax codes. This expanded global tax base would be a more sustainable and equitable system than the traditional donor-recipient relationship.
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Beyond Market Access
作者: Ana Luiza Cortez出版日期: 十二月 2011更多 更少This paper assesses the effectiveness of non-tariff special and differential treatment (SDT) offered exclusively to the least developed countries by WTO agreements. SDTs are inefficient in at least four aspects. First, they are not easily accessed as they require a certain level of institutional capacity. Second, when accessible they either need to be complemented by other policy interventions or are offset by measures taken elsewhere. Third, some do not respond to LDC needs. Fourth, many are too vaguely defined to provide concrete benefits. Effectiveness can be enhanced by increased LDC ownership and improved policy coherence by trading and development partners.
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Macroeconomic Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction
作者: Degol Hailu and John Weeks出版日期: 七月 2011更多 更少A fundamental shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is taking place. This shift opens a space for implementing policies that promote growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. In this paper, policies for post-conflict and resource-rich economies are outlined. Fiscal policy would focus on revenue mobilization, scaling-up public investment, and preventing over-heating. Monetary policies would revive the financial sector, prevent inflationary pressures and stimulate private sector investment. Exchange rate policies should focus on achieving slow depreciation and maintaining international competitiveness. These policies should not be considered in isolation from each other, but in coordination.
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Food Crises and Gender Inequality
作者: Bina Agarwal出版日期: 六月 2011更多 更少This paper examines the current food crises, the projected effect of climate change, the vulnerabilities created by regional concentrations of food production, imports and exports, and the significant role of women as food producers, consumers and family food managers. Bridging productivity differentials between male and female farmers, by helping women overcome production constraints, would significantly increase agricultural output. This becomes an imperative, given the feminization of agriculture. Institutionally, a group approach to farming would help women and other small holders enhance their access to land and inputs, benefit from economies of scale, and increase their bargaining power economically and socially.
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The Scorecard on Development, 1960-2010
作者: Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray出版日期: 六月 2011更多 更少This paper examines data on economic growth and various social indicators for 193 countries over the past 50 years, divided into three periods: 1960-1980, 1980-2000, and 2000-2010. The paper finds that after a sharp slowdown in economic growth and in progress on social indicators during the second (1980-2000) period, there has been a recovery on both economic growth and, for many countries, a rebound in progress on social indicators (including life expectancy, adult, infant, and child mortality, and education) during the past decade. The paper discusses some of the economic and policy changes that might explain the slowdown and rebound.
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Credit to Private Sector, Interest Spread and Volatility in Credit Flows
作者: Hamid Rashid出版日期: 五月 2011更多 更少With bank-level data from 81 developing countries, the paper shows that increased foreign bank presence is associated with increased reliance on non-deposit based funding, which leads to higher interest rate spreads, less credit to the private sector, and higher volatility in bank loans. Foreign bank entry significantly reduces domestic banks’ share of deposits while foreign banks typically allocate less of their assets and deposits to lending. As domestic banks lose their deposit base, they rely on non-deposit based funding, but its higher costs and uncertainty force domestic banks to reduce their lending activities.
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Adapting the International Monetary System to Face 21st Century Challenges
作者: Aldo Caliari出版日期: 五月 2011更多 更少Recent calls for more intense debate on and reforms to the international monetary system imply that the current system is unable to respond appropriately and adequately to challenges that have appeared, or become more acute, in recent years. This paper focuses on four such challenges: ensuring an orderly exit from global imbalances, facilitating more complementary adjustments between surplus and deficit countries without recessionary impacts, better supporting international trade by reducing currency volatility and better providing development and climate finance. After describing them, it proposes reforms to enable the international monetary system to better respond to these challenges.
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Behavioural Factors as Emerging Main Determinants of Child Mortality in Middle-Income Countries
作者: Cornelia Kaldewei and Ingo Pitterle出版日期: 二月 2011更多 更少This paper uses data from Jordan’s 2007 Demographic and Health Survey to reassess the main determinants of child mortality in this middle-income country. Running different logit estimations to allow for different time windows and sets of variables, we find that behavioural factors have gained importance, compared to the household and community factors that were found to be important in earlier studies. We conclude that once a country has passed a certain threshold in household income, education and access to health care and safe drinking water, policies targeting behavioural changes are the most promising for achieving further reductions in mortality rates.
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Globalization and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
出版日期: 二月 2011更多 更少This paper critically reviews the impact of globalization on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since the early 1980s. The large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have, to date, been limited, and there have been significant adverse consequences. Foreign direct investment in SSA has been largely confined to resource—especially mineral—extraction, even as continuing capital flight has reduced financial resources available for productive investments. Premature trade liberalization has further undermined prospects for the economic development of SSA as productive capacities in many sectors are not sufficiently competitive to take advantage of any improvements in market access.
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Economic Integration, Inequality and Growth
出版日期: 一月 2011更多 更少This paper presents a simple theoretical framework to explain variations in income inequality over time and between countries. It also analyses the factors responsible for the widespread risein inequality during the neo-liberal reforms of 1980-2000 in the fields of trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and capital flows, and the rise in migration. Finally, it compares the decline in inequality observed in most of Latin America over 2000-2008 with the steady increase of inequality in many European transition economies during this period despite their return to robust growth. The paper argues that such divergence is explained by differences in policies.
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Growth, Poverty and Inequality
出版日期: 十一月 2010更多 更少This paper reviews recent economic policy debates about the relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. These debates have tended to focus on whether market-led growth is sufficient to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality, or whether specific policies are necessary because untargeted growth may be insufficient or even perverse. The paper charts the degenerating outcomes of these debates, and the emergence of the inclusive growth (IG) paradigm within the World Bank. A critical examination of IG suggests that its weaknesses are best addressed through a more ambitious restatement of the pro-poor goals of economic policy.
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Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the Current Crisis in Developing Countries
出版日期: 十月 2010更多 更少The current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position more precarious, a trend magnified by the current crisis. This is consistent with the policy reactions to the crisis: governments have (rightly) acted as a banker of last resort to avoid the collapse of the financial system, but, despite stimulus plans and monetary easing and some labour market policies, have not really acted as an employer of last resort.
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Social Policy in Development
出版日期: 九月 2010更多 更少Research and practice related to social policy and poverty alleviation have left a legacy of a very broad agenda of “things that need to be done”, along with important unanswered questions about how to integrate social and economic development. These suggest the fruitfulness of focusing more on the distinctions among countries, in terms of their capacities, generating ideas about priorities and sequences, and working to reduce the agenda. Instead of new big ideas and new paradigms, the development community needs to get better at matching ideas to realities, and at generating contextually grounded processes for taking the next step.
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Impact of the Global Economic Crises on Civil Society Organizations
出版日期: 九月 2010更多 更少The food, environmental and economic crises have challenged civil society organizations (CSOs) and the communities they serve. A broad-based survey, initiated by the United Nations Division for Social Policy and Development and guided by a Civil Society Steering Committee, was undertaken in 2009 that measured the impact of the crises on the operating capacity of CSOs around the world and their expectations as they look ahead. This study examines the current situation of CSOs as indicated by responses from 640 civil society organizations worldwide. It also asks what strategies they are undertaking to cope with a drop of revenues and how to strengthen social-service delivery capacities of CSOs during crisis periods.
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CRED: A New Model of Climate and Development
出版日期: 七月 2010更多 更少This paper describes a new model, Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED), which is designed to analyze the economics of climate and development choices. Its principal innovations are the treatment of global equity, calculation of the optimum interregional flows of resources, and use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves to project the cost of mitigation. The model shows more equitable scenarios have better climate outcomes; the challenge of climate policy is to persuade high-income countries to accept the need for both international equity and climate protection.
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Estimating the Amount of a Global Feed-in Tariff for Renewable Electricity
作者: Samantha De Martino and David Le Blanc出版日期: 四月 2010更多 更少We present a simple model to estimate the subsidy cost embedded in a global feed-in tariff (GFIT) to simultaneously stimulate electrification and the take-up of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in developing countries. The GFIT would subsidize developing countries for investments they make in generation capacity for renewable electricity up to a threshold level of electricity consumption per capita. Between 2010 and 2025, countries below this threshold strive to bridge the gap by 2025, when subsidies—based on the difference between the costs of renewable technologies and conventional energy sources—end.
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A Non-Parametric Microsimulation Approach to Assess Changes in Inequality and Poverty
作者: Rob Vos and Marco V. Sánchez Cantillo出版日期: 三月 2010更多 更少This paper presents a non-parametric microsimulation methodology for assessing the determinants of changes in income inequality and poverty. One great advantage of this method over alternatives is that it is not very demanding in terms of modelling labour supply and household behaviour while still providing a plausible link between changes in overall labour market conditions and the full household income distribution. The paper also shows how the method can be adapted to assess the poverty and inequality effects of changes in non-labour incomes (such as through a government transfer programme) and how it can be combined with economy-wide models.
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Poverty Reduction in China and India
作者: Jayati Ghosh出版日期: 一月 2010更多 更少This paper compares the experience of poverty reduction in China and India. It finds that more than economic growth per se, what has mattered crucially is the nature of the growth: whether it is associated with growing inequalities that do not allow the benefits of growth to reach the poor; whether the structural change involved in the growth process generates sufficient opportunities for productive non-agricultural employment; whether basic needs and essential social services are provided. Government mediation of these and of global economic integration is important in determining different outcomes.
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Property Rights for Poverty Reduction?
出版日期: 十二月 2009更多 更少This paper reviews the links between property rights and poverty reduction. Poor people not only lack current income, but also assets with which to generate incomes. Billions of poor people have access to land which may not be legally recognized. While legislation may provide more secure land tenure for the poor and thus reduce poverty, this outcome is not guaranteed. Policies that do not recognize the complexity of property rights have backfired, reducing poor people’s security of tenure. Finally, understanding legal pluralism can lead to more effective policies and interventions to strengthen poor people’s control over assets.
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Growth, Development Policy, Job Creation and Poverty Reduction
作者: Lance Taylor出版日期: 十二月 2009更多 更少Policies seeking to directly help the poor have an important role to play. But without sustained growth in per capita output and significant job creation, they will not succeed. Policies promoting growth have been suggested, most notably by avoiding pro-cyclical responses to macroeconomic shocks (especially from abroad), steering macroeconomic prices, such as exchange and interest rates, to support developmental objectives, pursuing industrial and trade policies involving increasing returns, promoting financial development, and making productive use of foreign aid. Ensuring national economies have sufficient policy space to achieve sustained growth and structural change should be the over-riding policy concern.
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Microfinance as a Poverty Reduction Tool
作者: Anis Chowdhury出版日期: 十二月 2009更多 更少This paper attempts to provide a critical appraisal of the debate on the effectiveness of microfinance as a universal poverty reduction tool. It argues that while microfinance has developed some innovative management and business strategies, its impact on poverty reduction remains in doubt. Microfinance, however, certainly plays an important role in providing safety-net and consumption smoothening. The borrowers of microfinance possibly also benefit from learning-by-doing and from self-esteem. However, for any significant dent on poverty, the focus of public policy should be on growth-oriented and equity-enhancing programs, such as broad-based productive employment creation.
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The Terrible Simplifers
作者: Erik Reinert出版日期: 十二月 2009更多 更少One element explaining the financial crisis is what Hyman Minsky called ‘destabilizing stability’: long periods of stability lead to increasing vulnerability. This paper argues that similar mechanisms are at work inside economics: long periods of economic progress in the core countries lead to increasingly abstract and irrelevant economic theories (‘terrible simplifications’). This leads to turning points towards more relevant economic theories, referred to as ‘1848 moments’. The paper further outlines the key variables that need to be re-introduced into economic theory in order to furnish poor countries with the type of productive structures that makes it possible to eliminate poverty.
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The Emperor’s New Suit
作者: Sanjay G. Reddy出版日期: 十二月 2009更多 更少The recent revision of the World Bank’s global poverty estimates based on a new $1.25 (2005 PPP) poverty line underlines their unreliability and lack of meaningfulness. It is very difficult to justify various aspects of the Bank’s approach. In the short term, less weight should be given to the Bank’s poverty estimates in monitoring the first MDG. In the longer term, a solution to the observed problems requires adopting an altogether different method. Such an alternative exists but requires global institutional coordination. Until it is implemented, the crisis in the monitoring of global consumption poverty can be expected to intensify. Subsequent versions of this paper, correcting errors or extending the argument, will be made available on socialanalysis.org
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Globalization, Offshoring and Economic Insecurity in Industrialized Countries
作者: William Milberg and Deborah Winkler出版日期: 十一月 2009更多 更少Th is paper shows that a “new wave of globalization,” involving extensive off shoring, has raised both actual and perceived labor market insecurity in industrialized countries. Th e paper analyzes various channels through which this new wave of globalization leads to economic insecurity. It emphasises the key role of overall macroeconomic conditions in determining the outcome of off shoring. The paper points out the inadequacies of various policy responses that industrialized countries have come up with so far and advocates urgent steps toward formulation of policies and erection of institutional structure more appropriate to confront the challenges of the new of globalization.
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Mananging Financial Instability
作者: Yilmaz Akyüz出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少This paper argues that developing countries have limited arsenal at the national level to manage financial instability. Th e solutions have to be sought mainly at the multilateral level and these include: provision of adequate international liquidity at appropriate terms for current account financing to countries facing foreign exchange shortages as a result of trade and financial shocks; and orderly debt workout procedures designed to stem attacks on currencies, check capital outflows and involve the private sector in the resolution of crises. Multilateral policy surveillance and advice should also be used to help countries to manage surges in capital inflows.
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Insurance Against Losses From Natural Disasters in Developing Countries
出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少This paper examines the recent experience with insurance and other risk-financing instruments in developing countries in order to gain insights into their effectiveness in reducing economic insecurity. Insurance and other risk financing strategies are viewed as efforts to recover from negative income shocks through risk pooling and transfer. Specific examples of public-private insurance programs for households, business-firms, and governments are described, highlighting their limitations, especially in light of the post-Katrina experience in the United States. It examines arguments both in support of and in opposition to donor and public involvement in provision of subsidized insurance in developing countries.
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Assessing the Success of Microinsurance Programmes in Meeting the Insurance Needs of the Poor
作者: Paul Mosley出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少The paper reviews attempts to provide insurance against risks afflicting the poorest. It presents empirical evidence on the impact of different types of microinsurance, and recommends the idea of ‘quasi-insurance’—the provision of insurance functions through a non-insurance route—where institutional or regulatory constraints prevent insurance proper from being offered. The paper argues that microinsurance so far has been somewhat supply-driven rather than driven by effective demand, especially from the poorest, and thus the insurance products which would benefit the poorest are still at a limited stage of development. Institutional innovations and new insurance products therefore deserve promotion.
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Assessing the Insurance Role of Microsavings
作者: David Hulme, Karen Moore and Armando Barrientos出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少The paper contends that more attention should be paid to micro savings in view of multiple ways in which it can help poor to deal with economic insecurity. The paper presents information to show that while microsaving programs have spread, their full potential is far from being realized. It presents a detailed analysis on the basis of data from a selection of micro savings programs to show how savings help the poor to smooth consumption and undertake investment. The paper urges for a strong campaign to popularise micro saving programs.
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Can Microfinance Reduce Economic Insecurity and Poverty?
作者: Nazrul Islam出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少The paper suggests that, rather than through its narrow, direct financial impact, microfinance may prove to be more potent in reducing insecurity and poverty through its indirect, broader impact conducing to a more egalitarian initial endowment distribution that is necessary for the “take-off” of an equitable growth process. The paper begins by examining the distinctive roles of micro credit, micro savings, and micro insurance programs in dealing with poverty and insecurity, and highlights the complementariness that exists among these programs and how this complementariness can be used to overcome the weaknesses of the individual programs.
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Insurance, Credit and Safety Nets for the Poor in a World of Risk
作者: Daniel Clarke and Stefan Dercon出版日期: 十月 2009更多 更少This paper asks how insurance can be more effectively delivered to the poor, and what its role should be relative to other microfinance programmes, safety nets and informal insurance systems. We focus on the various interactions, including how insurance may crowd out credit and informal insurance, and implications for the design of insurance schemes. We argue that well-designed insurance schemes, building on existing informal systems, and focusing on catastrophic and serious covariate risks, could offer protection against risk and contribute to poverty reduction beyond the combined impact of microcredit programmes, safety nets and existing informal mutual support systems.
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The Bottom of the Pyramid Strategy for Reducing Poverty
作者: Aneel Karnani出版日期: 八月 2009更多 更少The movement emphasizing free markets to reduce poverty has found strong expression in the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ approach in recent years. It views the poor as “resilient and creative entrepreneurs and value-conscious consumers”. This romanticized view of the poor harms the poor in two ways. First, it results in too little emphasis on legal, regulatory and social mechanisms to protect the poor who are vulnerable consumers. Second, it overemphasizes microcredit and underemphasizes fostering modern enterprises that would provide employment opportunities for the poor. More importantly, it grossly underemphasizes the critical role and responsibility of the state in poverty reduction.
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The Impact of Remittances on Economic Insecurity
作者: Krishnan Sharma出版日期: 七月 2009更多 更少This paper illustrates that cross-country generalizations about the impact of remittances on economic security are useful only up to a certain point; beyond that their effect can be influenced by the interplay of various factors relating to the motivations and characteristics of migrants, economic/social/political conditions in the country of origin, immigration policies and conditions in the host country, and the size and concentrations of the remittances. The policy implications outlined in the paper include the need for caution and retrospection in certain instances as well as action and international collaboration in other areas.
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Should Financial Flows Be Regulated?
作者: Gerald Epstein出版日期: 七月 2009更多 更少As the international financial crisis spreads, some governments are using “unconventional tools” of monetary and financial policy to protect themselves. Should policies to control international capital flows be part of the government “toolkit” in these difficult times? This essay answers: YES. It describes the economic arguments for and against using capital controls, prudential regulations and other “capital management techniques” to manage international financial flows, presents empirical evidence on their impacts, and describes the variety of policies that many countries have successfully applied to enhance macroeconomic and financial stability, create policy space, and achieve other national development goals.
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