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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Research Papers
UNCTAD Research Papers provide authoritative data and analysis on trade, investment, finance and technology, offering solutions to the major challenges facing developing countries, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable nations. Beyond tailored analysis and policy recommendations, our research has also generated global standards that govern responsible sovereign lending and borrowing, investment, entrepreneurship, competition and consumer protection and trade rules towards achievement of the 2030 Agenda.
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Prospects for the Post-pandemic Tourism and Economic Recovery in Vanuatu
Publication Date: June 2022More LessIn many small island developing States (SIDS), tourism is the engine of economic growth, export earnings and formal employment. The COVID-19 pandemic ravaged global tourism, through a major slowdown of international tourism arrivals, billions of dollars of lost revenues and millions of lost jobs. The pandemic’s impact was even more severe in highly vulnerable, tourism-dependent SIDS, with many of them closing their borders entirely to protect their populations and health systems. In this paper, we examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic development prospects in SIDS, through case study of Vanuatu, a tourism-dependent economy that suffered major macroeconomic impacts from the pandemic. We provide a forward look at the prospects for the post-pandemic recovery of tourism and the national economy, with policy recommendations for Vanuatu. We also aim for this case study to be useful to policy makers in other tourism-dependent SIDS and developing countries, as they undertake their post-pandemic recovery.
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Developing a Global Transport Costs Dataset for International Trade
Publication Date: June 2022More LessThis paper describes the sources and methods used for the compilation of the new Global Transport Costs Dataset on International Trade (GTCDIT), a beta version of which is publicly available on UNCTADstat. GTCDIT records bilateral international merchandise trade in value and quantity, broken down by commodity group and mode of transport (air, sea, railway, road, other modes), alongside its associated transport costs, for 2016. The compilation of GTCDIT has been made possible by the availability of new variables in a recent upgrade of the UN Comtrade database and of new estimates on global transport distances derived with the help of geographic information systems. To obtain global coverage, the primary data on the new variables in UN Comtrade reported by some countries have been used to develop models that estimate the missing values of most other countries. As a result, GTCDIT covers around 87 per cent of global trade in terms of value.
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Growing the Good and Shrinking the Bad: Output-emissions Elasticities and Green Industrial Policy in Commodity-dependent Developing Countries
Publication Date: May 2022More LessThis paper attempts to answer a series of questions that continue to hamstring the policy space of commodity dependent developing countries (CDDCs), particularly considering commitments made in the context of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. First, is it possible for CDDCs to meet their development goals while also fulfilling their commitments to climate change mitigation? Is it possible to manage the commodity sector in a way that fosters growth without worsening environmental outcomes? Can CDDCs at their current development stage decouple economic growth and development from increasing emissions, environmental pollution, and resource depletion? While the international community needs to consider the challenges facing CDDCs as they attempt to move towards a low-carbon growth path, CDDCs should embrace green industrial policies to position themselves as viable producers and exporters of green goods. Continued reliance on traditional commodities in an era of green transition may not be a viable long-term option.
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Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Methodologies in Nowcasting
Publication Date: May 2022More LessNowcasting can play a key role in giving policymakers timelier insight to data published with a significant time lag, such as final GDP figures. Currently, there are a plethora of methodologies and approaches for practitioners to choose from. However, there lacks a comprehensive comparison of these disparate approaches in terms of predictive performance and characteristics. This paper addresses that deficiency by examining the performance of 12 different methodologies in nowcasting US quarterly GDP growth, including all the methods most commonly employed in nowcasting, as well as some of the most popular traditional machine learning approaches. Performance was assessed on three different tumultuous periods in US economic history: the early 1980s recession, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID crisis. The two best performing methodologies in the analysis were long short-term memory artificial neural networks (LSTM) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR).
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Feasibility of Nowcasting SDG Indicators: A Comprehensive Survey
Publication Date: April 2022More LessThe 2030 Agenda and accompanying Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are vital in guiding national and global policy. However, many of the SDG indicators used to measure progress toward those goals suffer from long publication lags. Nowcasting has the potential to address this problem and generate more timely estimates of those indicators. This paper provides resources for achieving that potential by: Carrying out a comprehensive nowcasting feasibility survey of all SDG indicators to assess their potential to be nowcast. Performing a case study of indicator 9.4.1 to illustrate and shed light on the process of performing a nowcasting exercise. There exist 231 SDG indicators, but due to only examining Tier 1 indicators and the fact that many indicators have multiple sub-indicators, 362 indicators and sub-indicators were eventually surveyed. Of those 362, 150 were found highly likely to be suitable candidates for nowcasting, 87 were found to be likely, and 125 were found to be unsuitable.
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Achieving Global Carbon Neutrality Together with Economic Development
Publication Date: April 2022More LessThis paper proposes a projection of macroeconomic and environmental conditions to 2030 in order to help clarify some of the likely major Economic and Environmental challenges facing Developing Economies in their efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Using the United Nations Policy Model, the paper also assesses the dynamics and potential impact on Developing Economies of policy changes that could help the world to make substantial progress by 2040 in reaching the ambitious, but absolutely necessary, target of Zero Net Carbon Emissions by mid-century.
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The Global Rise and Persistence in Surplus Profits: Further Evidence of Increasing Market Power?
Publication Date: June 2021More LessThis paper makes an empirical contribution to recent debates about the causes and consequences of rising market concentration, in which two polar views have surfaced: the “winner-takes- all” approach and the “market power” approach. The former sees rising market concentration as an inherent part of the innovative and productive drive of market economies, with no substantive change in market power whatsoever, whereas the latter views rising market concentration and market power as two simultaneous phenomena feeding off each other, and adversely affecting innovation and overall economic performance. To contribute to differentiate empirically between these two approaches, this paper proposes a new methodology to measure the magnitude of surplus profits, as in both Classical and Marxian traditions, and the persistence of these over time. It then presents global estimations based on firm-level accounting data for 56 developed and developing countries. The paper finds that the share of surplus profits in total profits has increased from an average of 7% in 1995-2000 to 25 % in 2009-2015, and from 24% to 42 % for the 1% most profitable companies. It also reports increasing market concentration and strong profit persistence among top corporations over time.
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Financing Regional Digital Infrastructures in the South: Development Banks, Funds and Other Policy Options
Publication Date: September 2020More LessThe key question this paper addresses is how national governments of a regional grouping can act collectively to finance regional digital infrastructures. The paper suggests that sub-regional development banks could provide long-term finance and play a coordination role where needed. However, their financing capacity is limited, when contrasted with the scale of needs. A way forward is to inject more capital into these banks and create funds for regional digital infrastructure.
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Comparing Global Gender Inequality Indices: Where is Trade?
Publication Date: September 2020More LessThis paper presents a comparative study of selected global gender inequality indices: The Global Gender Gap Index (GGI); the Gender Inequality Index (GII); and the Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI). A Principal Component Analysis approach is used to identify the most important factors or dimensions, such as, health, social conditions and education, economic and labour participation and political empowerment that impact on gender and drive gender inequality. These factors are compared with the Sustainable Development Goal targets to assess how well they align. The findings show that while economic participation and empowerment are significant factors of gender equality, they are not fully incorporated into gender equality indices. In this context, the paper also discusses the absence of international trade, a key driver of economic development, from the gender equality measures and makes some tentative recommendations for how this lacuna might be addressed.
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The Trade Impact of Voluntary Sustainability Standards: A Review of Empirical Evidence
Authors: Niematallah E.A. Elamin and Santiago Fernández de CórdobaPublication Date: July 2020More LessThe expansion of Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) has introduced tools to address key sustainability challenges and expand trade as well as new complexity in trade policy dialogues. Although VSS are voluntary, they have become a market reality and non-compliance can lead to the exclusion of producers from Global Value Chains (GVCs). Although the literature has adequately addressed the theoretical trade impact of VSS, there is a worrying lack of empirical analysis in this field. This paper aims to draw the attention of researchers towards the lack of evidence in this area. Given that the gap in the literature can partly be explained by data access, we also present some of the publicly available data sources and highlights the significance of increasing transparency in terms of data availability.
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Moratorium on Electronic Transmissions: Fiscal Implications and Way Forward
Authors: Richard Kozul-Wright and Rashmi BangaPublication Date: July 2020More LessThe outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus) and the subsequent prolonged lockdowns have been accompanied by an exponential rise in imports of electronic transmissions, mainly of luxury items like movies, music, video games and printed matter. While the profits and revenues of digital players are rising steadily, the ability of the governments to check these conspicuous imports and generate additional tariff revenues is being severely limited because of the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. This moratorium was agreed in 1998 with no consensus on the scope of the moratorium, no clarity on how electronic transmissions are classified or what they covered, and no notion of how the digital revolution will unfold. This paper proposes a basis for deciding the scope of the moratorium by using the trichotomy of ‘goods’, ‘intangible goods’ and ‘services.’ Further, using different classifications of ET, the paper estimates the potential tariff revenue losses and the development impact of the moratorium.
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Coronagraben: Culture and Social Distancing in Times of COVID-19
Authors: Neha Deopa and Piergiuseppe FortunatoPublication Date: July 2020More LessSocial distancing measures have been introduced in many countries in response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. The rate of compliance to these measures has varied substantially. This research paper studies how cultural differences can explain this variance using data on mobility in Swiss cantons between January and May 2020. We find that mobility declined after the outbreak but significantly less in the German-speaking region. Contrary to the evidence in the literature, we find that within the Swiss context, higher generalized trust in others is strongly associated with lower reductions in individual mobility. We attribute these results to the German-speaking cantons having a combination of not only high interpersonal trust but also conservative political attitudes which may have altered the trade-off between the chance of contracting the virus and the costs associated with significant alterations of daily activities.
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Development Status as a Measure of Development
Author: Onno HoffmeisterPublication Date: June 2020More LessThis study analyses to which extent the classification of countries as developing corresponds with their actual development level. Development status classification schemes (DSCSs) differ across international organizations, yielding heterogeneous outcomes. In the literature, different concepts of a developing country focus on different indicators of development levels. All analysed indicators have a highly significant effect on the countries' probability to be classified as developing, and discerning developing countries from others leads to a reduction of heterogeneity with all DSCSs for most indicators. Schemes which nominate countries for classes correspond mainly with concepts focusing on difficult starting points or an early stage in systemic transition. Schemes which classify countries based on specified criteria typically reflect a welfare-based concept. The hypothesis of a weakening correspondence over the last four decades cannot be confirmed for all indicators.
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The Impact of Multinational and Trading Enterprises on Gender Equality - Case Finland
Authors: Henri Luomaranta, Fernando Cantú, Steve MacFeely and Anu PeltolaPublication Date: June 2020More LessThis paper constructs and analyses a set of novel indicators on gender equality in the business sector, which focus on multinational enterprises and foreign traders. The descriptive data tables are drawn from the rich linked statistical registers available at Statistics Finland. The analysis reveals large differences in the share of women and men employed in the best paying professions. However, while a sizeable gender pay gap in the business sector is identified in high-paying managerial and skill-intensive occupations, and in multinational enterprises in particular, the gap is smaller in domestically owned businesses. The gender pay gap tends to be larger in high-paying jobs in foreign multinationals and in enterprises that trade internationally. This paper contributes to the field of official statistics by providing a blueprint, showing how business statistics and social statistics can be linked to enable an analysis of gender inequalities in the labour market.
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Brexit Beyond Tariffs: The Role of Non-tariff Measures and the Impact on Developing Countries
Authors: Ben Shepherd and Ralf PetersPublication Date: June 2020More LessThe United Kingdom left the European Union in January 2020. During a transition period that lasts until the end of 2020, the European Union and the United Kingdom aim to determine their future trade relations. In this Research Paper, we explore quantitatively the role of non-tariff measures (NTMs), including regulatory measures such as sanitary and technical requirements, in shaping the United Kingdom's future trade relations with the European Union and the impact on developing countries. We simulate the possible impacts of Brexit using a panel data gravity model and compare the European Union membership effect with the effects of free trade agreements and customs unions. The Paper finds that there is a significant European Union membership effect well beyond zero tariffs, an effect we do not find for the other two agreements. It interprets the effect above and beyond tariffs as the European Union's impact on NTMs. The economic effects for the United Kingdom, the European Union and developing countries are about 2.5 times larger in the scenario that takes rising trade costs related to NTMs in addition to potentially rising tariffs into account. A potential increase of tariffs between the United Kingdom and the European Union and rising trade costs related to NTMs could decrease United Kingdom's exports to the European Union by 14 per cent. Even in the case a "standard" free trade agreement is signed, such exports could drop by 9 per cent. Exports from developing countries into the United Kingdom, and to a much smaller extent into the European Union, could increase if the United Kingdom would not increase its tariffs for third countries.
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Restoring Competition in "Winner-Took-All" Digital Platform Markets
Author: Ebru Gökçe DessemondPublication Date: June 2020More LessDigital platforms provide a variety of services such as marketplaces, social networking, search engines and payment systems. Their business model relies on data and data monetization for growth. These are multi-sided, oligopolistic or monopolistic markets characterized by network effects, high economies of scale and scope, and increasing returns to scale, which together raise barriers for new entry. In digital markets, platforms compete for the market and not in the market. These features together with control over user data confer significant market power to incumbent platforms in their respective markets. This has raised concerns about competition and led the competition lawyers and economists reflect on ways to restore the lost competition in digital markets. This paper suggests adapting competition law tools and analysis to the realities of this new business model; reforming merger control regimes; focusing not only on free but also fair competition in digital markets; adopting regulatory measures such data openness and portability, interoperability between online platforms. The paper also questions the relevance of consumer welfare standard based on price effects and efficiency to the new business model of online platforms. It suggests adopting a broader framework including choice, quality, privacy, innovation, future competition and effective competition structure and competitive process in competition law enforcement.
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Computing Non-tariff Measures Indicators: Analysis with UNCTAD TRAINS Data
Author: Denise Penello RialPublication Date: June 2020More LessData on Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) contribute to transparency and can be used for statistics suitable for economic analysis. This study provides a description of the data cleaning process applied to the UNCTAD TRAINS NTM Data for Research and describes the standard methodology to compute indicators. Analysts can use the indicators for descriptive statistics or as variables in economic models. The objective of this document is to describe in detail the nuances in the treatment of the data in practical terms and share the procedures to synthesize the data into indicators that provide information that is useful to build knowledge and derive conclusions.
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Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commodities Exports to China
Author: Marco FugazzaPublication Date: June 2020More LessThis research paper presents a preliminary assessment of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on commodities exports to China with a focus on exports from Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs). Results indicate that in comparison to short term tendencies observed in the past three years, total commodities exports to China are currently moving downward. As compared to a situation without the COVID-19 crisis, total commodities exports to China may fall by 15.5 to 33.1 billion US Dollars during 2020, resulting in reduction of the projected annual growth of up to 46 percent (i.e. 8 percentage points). Although CDDCs commodities exports to China are also expected to decrease, the estimated impact is weaker.
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