No Poverty

Shocks and crises have become more frequent, intense and widespread in an interconnected world, affecting more people across the globe. Crises that might have previously remained relatively contained within a well-defined geographic region, are now propagated rapidly through globally interconnected systems and networks in areas such as economics, finance, the environment and health. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis is an example of how financial shocks spread through the interconnected balance sheets of financial institutions, causing havoc around the world. The COVID-19 pandemic also shows how national health systems were unable to absorb the effects of the virus, which spread quickly through a dense global transportation network before disrupting highly concentrated economic and financial networks and killing more than 7 million people. Looking toward the Second World Summit for Social Development in 2025, this policy brief focuses on explaining how shocks turn into crises and how national policies, supported by the international community, can help counter shocks, build resilience, and advance social development objectives, namely eradicating poverty, promoting full and productive employment, and fostering social inclusion in times of converging crises.

Multi-speed growth is back: 68 developing economies are currently growing at more than 4%, 47 at between 2 and 4% and 37 at less than 2%. The projected effects on poverty are uneven. Despite a downward trend since the pandemic in 2020, an estimated 7.7% of the global population could still be living in extreme poverty in 2024, just below the pre-pandemic level of 8%, and could decrease slightly to 7.2% by 2026. Looking forward, high levels of debt and weak development financing are expected to make uneven patterns of growth and poverty more divergent. In 49 countries, net interest payments as a share of revenue are now higher than 10%, up from 27 countries a decade ago, and in 10 countries higher than 25%. Worst affected is the world’s poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 45% of countries with interest payments in excess of 10% and 50% of countries with payments higher than 25%. Indicators of debt distress and default risk remain elevated. For developing economies with a sovereign credit rating, 61% percent (54 countries) have a rating below ‘non-investment grade’ and for countries with debt assessed under the LIC-DSF 51% percent (34 countries) are rated either in or at high risk of debt distress.

Global megatrends such as income inequality, climate change, demographic shifts, technological progress, and urbanisation are shaping the future of societies. Yet, their quantitative impacts on development are neither well understood nor established. This paper examines the individual and combined effects of these global forces on poverty, using both cross-section and panel estimation techniques on a global dataset covering the period from 1995 to 2019. Regarding the direct effects, it finds that inequality, urbanization, and technology are the megatrends with a robust impact on poverty in both the long and medium terms. Demographic shifts and climate change have some impact on poverty, but the results depend on the samples and specifications considered. Furthermore, the paper finds that in addition to their direct effects, technology, urbanization, and demographic shifts affect poverty through their interactions with income inequality. Among the controls, per capita income, education, and private credit are significant drivers in the medium term, while per capita income is the only control variable that matters in the long run.

This policy brief examines recent United States tariff shockwaves and the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting both direct impacts – particularly on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – and indirect spillovers through weaker demand from China and the European Union, and falling oil prices. Preliminary estimates for 2025 suggest moderate macroeconomic effects for the Agadir Agreement countries and limited impacts for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The brief underscores rising fiscal vulnerabilities and calls upon Arab States to strengthen regional integration, diversify trade and engage with the United States to enhance economic resilience.

يستند الموجز إلى التقرير العربي الثاني حول الفقر المتعدد الأبعاد (2023)، ويعطي صورة محدّثة عن حالة عدد من البلدان العربية. ويعتمد في التحليل على بيانات مسوح حديثة من ثلاثة بلدان متوسطة الدخل هي الأردن وتونس ومصر، وثلاثة بلدان من الأقل نمواً هي جزر القمر وموريتانيا واليمن. ويستعرض التحديات الجديدة والمستمرة التي يواجهها كلٌّ من هذه البلدان. ورغم التقدّم الذي يبيّنه الموجز في مجالات معينة، يظهر أنّ الفقر المتعدد الأبعاد لا يزال مستشرياً لا سيما في أقل البلدان نمواً، إذ لم يسجّل سوى تراجع هامشي أو بقي مرتفعًا جداً على مدار العقد الماضي. ويؤكد الحاجة الملحة ليكثّف واضعو السياسات جهودهم في مجالات رئيسية مثل التعليم، والخدمات العامة، وظروف المعيشة الأساسية. ويقدّم الموجز مشورةً مدعومةً بالبيانات تساعد أصحاب المصلحة في التصدّي للتحديات المعقدة والمتغيّرة المرتبطة بالفقر المتعدد الأبعاد، ويدعو إلى إجراءات محدّدة وجهود متواصلة تسهم في تحقيق تنمية عادلة في أنحاء المنطقة العربية.

The report represents a comprehensive research of financing practices and the outlook of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the Republic of Moldova. The research involves mapping the financing instruments used, identifying current barriers and success factors, and assessing current practical gaps. The study presents policy and programmatic recommendations to enhance access to finance and to identify opportunities and entry points for UNDP intervention with the purpose of filling the funding gap created by the COVID-19 crisis and nurturing sustainability and further development and growth of MSMEs.

The current scenario of increased food and energy prices and the possibility that it will persist or worsen throughout the year because of the war in Ukraine threatens household welfare in Moldova. Under the food and energy inflation levels recorded in February 2022 (23% and 29.4% increase in prices, respectively), the number of people living in poverty could increase by about 250,000 people. Under a more extreme scenario equivalent to twice those levels of inflation, the increase in the number of poor people could reach up to 550,000.