Affordable and Clean Energy
Global Decarbonization in Fossil Fuel Export-Dependent Economies: Fiscal and Economic Transition Costs
5月 2023
工作稿
This paper takes a closer look at the potentially huge economic and fiscal transition costs of global decarbonization in fossil fuel export-dependent economies. The paper identifies 40 heavily fossil fuel dependent economies. It is estimated that these countries will lose more than 60 percent in oil rents alone during the period 2023-2040 under a net-zero 2050 global decarbonization scenario compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario reflecting stated policies. Local projections analysis provide evidence in support of possibly large adverse impacts on growth, government revenue and debt from a rapid fall in global fossil fuel demand in net-exporting emerging markets and developing economies. Finally, the paper discusses the mitigating domestic and international policy options to help countries.
Accelerating the Green Transition: Socioecological Systems and the Future of Development
4月 2024
工作稿
The planetary crisis is the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced, an existential threat calling into question the future of civilization. Unless collective action is taken to halt and reverse the decline of the planet’s ecosystems, the road to 2030 will be defined by accelerating levels of social vulnerability, poverty and crisis. The polycrisis experienced in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the past decade is a case in point, providing critical insights on the role of ecological change in the emergence of complex multidimensional crises. This paper explores lessons and insights from a new generation of integrated local solutions that have emerged across the region to manage risks and build resilience and makes the case for a new systems orientation to development paradigms and practice to achieve goals of transformational change. In moving towards 2030, a new paradigm is needed in which development is seen no longer as a linear set of goals and targets but as the emergent property of a complex socioecological system.
Targeted and Inclusive Approaches to Tackling Energy Poverty in a Crisis Context: Case Study from Moldova
4月 2024
工作稿
According to UNDP estimates from the early days of the energy crisis in Moldova, 71 percent of households were in the most vulnerable energy category, spending 90 percent or more of their available income—after the minimum expenditure—on energy and heating during the cold period. Highly dependent on energy imports, the country risked tripling its population living in poverty from 11 to 35 percent. In the context of a compounded crisis and the war in Ukraine, the Moldovan Government, in close collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), developed an innovative and targeted on-bill energy compensation mechanism, the first of its kind in Moldova, the Energy Vulnerability Reduction Fund (EVRF). The aim of EVRF is to create an inclusive solution that minimizes the negative impacts of the sharp increase in energy prices on energy-vulnerable and income-poor households, therefore safeguarding social cohesion. At the same time, in the longer term, the EVRF aims to incentivize the transition towards sustainable energy sources and to achieve higher levels of energy efficiency in the residential sector. This paper presents the main outcomes of the UNDP support for the establishment and implementation of a robust EVRF, along with an impact assessment and lessons learned that are applicable to other country contexts.
Leveraging Critical Energy Transition Minerals
2月 2025
工作稿
The rapid adoption of renewable energy technologies and the transition away from fossil fuels are vital for combating climate change. Achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 will require much faster deployment of clean energy technologies, including wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage systems. This shift is fueling a sharp rise in demand for critical energy transition minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements, particularly as developing countries work to achieve universal energy access and diversify their economies. For instance, an onshore wind power plant requires nine times more mineral inputs than a gas-fired plant of the same capacity, while an EV needs six times more minerals than a conventional car. Additionally, the average mineral requirement for new power generation capacity increased by 50 per cent during the 2010s, driven by the growing share of renewables in total capacity additions. Against this backdrop, countries rich in critical mineral resources have an opportunity to unlock significant development benefits. These minerals can attract foreign and domestic investment, create jobs, and boost fiscal revenues, exports, and overall economic growth. However, quantifying the economic scale of the mining industry remains challenging, especially due to the volatility of mineral prices, which directly impact valuations.
الوظائف الخضراء في العالم العربي: مسارٌٌ نحو الاستدامة
6月 2025
工作稿
يتناول موجز السياسات هذا الواقع المتبدّل للوظائف الخضراء في المنطقة العربية، مستنداً إلى بيانات آنية مستخرجة من مرصد مهارات الإسكوا لتحديد الاتجاهات والفجوات والفرص. وعلى الرغم من الزخم العالمي، لا تمثل الوظائف الخضراء سوى 5.06 في المائة من مجموع إعلانات الوظائف على الإنترنت في المنطقة العربية حتى عام 2024، وقد سُجِّلت أعلى نسب منها في اقتصادات كبرى مثل المملكة العربية السعودية وعُمان وقطر. ويتناول هذا الموجز قطاع النفط والغاز بمزيدٍ من التفصيل لتقييم مدى تحوّله نحو الاستدامة. وتُظْهِرُ النتائج أن 23 في المائة من الوظائف ضمن هذا القطاع باتت تُصنَّف على أنها وظائف خضراء، مما يُشير إلى بوادر أولية للتحوّل الأخضر في أحد أكثر القطاعات كثافة في الانبعاثات الكربونية في المنطقة. ومع ذلك، تبقى الفجوة قائمة بين المهن التي تتّسم بمواءمة عالية مع التحوّل الأخضر وتلك التي تسجِّل طلباً مرتفعاً. وثمّة حاجة إلى سياسات تعزِّز الاستثمار الأخضر، وتدمج مبادئ الاستدامة في أنظمة التعليم والقوى العاملة، وتعزِّز أنظمة معلومات سوق العمل، في سبيل توجيه التحوّل الأخضر العادل والشامل.
Empowering a Sustainable Future: Green Jobs in the Arab Region
6月 2025
工作稿
This policy brief examines the evolving landscape of green jobs in the Arab region, drawing on real-time data from the ESCWA Skills Monitor to identify trends, gaps and opportunities. Despite global momentum, green jobs account for just 5.06 per cent of online job postings in the Arab region as of 2024, with the highest concentrations observed in larger economies such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar. This policy brief takes a closer look at the oil and gas sector to assess the extent of its transition toward sustainability. Findings show that 23 per cent of jobs within the sector are now classified as green, signalling early signs of greening in one of the region’s most carbon-intensive industries. However, there remains a disconnect between occupations with high green alignment and those in high demand. Policies that scale up green investment, embed sustainability in education and workforce systems, and enhance labour market intelligence are needed to guide a just and inclusive green transition.
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