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Decent Work and Economic Growth
Developing a Global Transport Costs Dataset for International Trade
Jun 2022
Working Paper
This paper describes the sources and methods used for the compilation of the new Global Transport Costs Dataset on International Trade (GTCDIT) a beta version of which is publicly available on UNCTADstat. GTCDIT records bilateral international merchandise trade in value and quantity broken down by commodity group and mode of transport (air sea railway road other modes) alongside its associated transport costs for 2016. The compilation of GTCDIT has been made possible by the availability of new variables in a recent upgrade of the UN Comtrade database and of new estimates on global transport distances derived with the help of geographic information systems. To obtain global coverage the primary data on the new variables in UN Comtrade reported by some countries have been used to develop models that estimate the missing values of most other countries. As a result GTCDIT covers around 87 per cent of global trade in terms of value.
Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Methodologies in Nowcasting
May 2022
Working Paper
Nowcasting can play a key role in giving policymakers timelier insight to data published with a significant time lag such as final GDP figures. Currently there are a plethora of methodologies and approaches for practitioners to choose from. However there lacks a comprehensive comparison of these disparate approaches in terms of predictive performance and characteristics. This paper addresses that deficiency by examining the performance of 12 different methodologies in nowcasting US quarterly GDP growth including all the methods most commonly employed in nowcasting as well as some of the most popular traditional machine learning approaches. Performance was assessed on three different tumultuous periods in US economic history: the early 1980s recession the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID crisis. The two best performing methodologies in the analysis were long short-term memory artificial neural networks (LSTM) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR).
Credit Rating Agencies and Developing Economies
Dec 2021
Working Paper
The pandemic-induced global economic crisis has contributed to the re-emergence of sovereign default risk especially for emerging and developing economies and has directed attention to the impact of the institutions that are tasked with attempting to predict defaults: the international credit rating agencies. This paper describes four main challenges posed by credit rating agencies especially from a developing and emerging economies perspective: potential bias in ratings pro-cyclicality of ratings governance issues and conflicts of interest and incorporation of climate risk. It concludes with potential policy solutions addressed at ratings agencies regulators and policy makers.
Investing in the Future of Rural Non-farm Economies
Oct 2021
Working Paper
Development strategies that focus solely on urban development and leave rural communities behind are not adequate to overcome the development challenges we face. The in-situ development of rural economies and societies must be a central objective of development if nations are to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda. A precondition for substantial rural transformation and growth is higher agricultural productivity and the subsequent reallocation of productive resources towards expanding the non-agricultural rural sector. A dynamic local rural economy can benefit from and complement urban growth alleviate poverty and reduce migratory pressures on growing cities. Country examples show that it is possible to accelerate in-situ development by investing in infrastructure offering educational opportunities expanding financial services and speeding up the adoption of technologies in food and non-food producing sectors. These investments help create a virtuous circle of agricultural productivity and non-agricultural development.
Prospects for the Post-pandemic Tourism and Economic Recovery in Vanuatu
Jun 2022
Working Paper
In many small island developing States (SIDS) tourism is the engine of economic growth export earnings and formal employment. The COVID-19 pandemic ravaged global tourism through a major slowdown of international tourism arrivals billions of dollars of lost revenues and millions of lost jobs. The pandemic’s impact was even more severe in highly vulnerable tourism-dependent SIDS with many of them closing their borders entirely to protect their populations and health systems. In this paper we examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic development prospects in SIDS through case study of Vanuatu a tourism-dependent economy that suffered major macroeconomic impacts from the pandemic. We provide a forward look at the prospects for the post-pandemic recovery of tourism and the national economy with policy recommendations for Vanuatu. We also aim for this case study to be useful to policy makers in other tourism-dependent SIDS and developing countries as they undertake their post-pandemic recovery.
Growing the Good and Shrinking the Bad: Output-emissions Elasticities and Green Industrial Policy in Commodity-dependent Developing Countries
May 2022
Working Paper
This paper attempts to answer a series of questions that continue to hamstring the policy space of commodity dependent developing countries (CDDCs) particularly considering commitments made in the context of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. First is it possible for CDDCs to meet their development goals while also fulfilling their commitments to climate change mitigation? Is it possible to manage the commodity sector in a way that fosters growth without worsening environmental outcomes? Can CDDCs at their current development stage decouple economic growth and development from increasing emissions environmental pollution and resource depletion? While the international community needs to consider the challenges facing CDDCs as they attempt to move towards a low-carbon growth path CDDCs should embrace green industrial policies to position themselves as viable producers and exporters of green goods. Continued reliance on traditional commodities in an era of green transition may not be a viable long-term option.
Economic Insecurity and Well-being
Jul 2021
Working Paper
In Article 25 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights the United Nations recognized in 1948 the basic human right to “security in the event of unemployment sickness disability widowhood old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond ... control.” This paper examines how economic insecurity is related to yet different from poverty and inequality why it matters for human well-being and how it has been changing in different countries around the world in recent years. The paper concludes with discussion of how economic insecurity has been and will be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic/recession.
Let Us Continue Learning
Aug 2021
Working Paper
Malagasy adolescents face severe challenges in accessing and completing basic education. Among those students who complete the primary cycle one in four does not transition into lower secondary school. Economic constraints among vulnerable households coupled with low-quality education result in widespread dropout and poor learning outcomes. Acknowledging these multidimensional barriers UNICEF Madagascar leveraged funds from the Let us Learn (LUL) programme to implement a two-pronged strategy to support Malagasy children in accessing and continuing lower secondary school. The Catch-up Classes provide out-of-school adolescents with a learning pathway to build the foundational literacy and numeracy skills they need to resume studying in formal school. Conditional cash transfers target families with children who are at risk of abandoning school after completing the primary cycle. This brief builds on programme monitoring data impact evaluations and qualitative insights from the field to highlight lessons learnt and actionable recommendations for accessing and continuing vulnerable children’s secondary education.
The COVID-19 Crisis: What Explains Cross-country Differences in the Pandemic’s Short-term Economic Impact?
Aug 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper we use cross-country regression analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition our results shed light on several aspects of economic resilience. Good governance provision of fiscal support and strong macroeconomic fundamentals all helped cushion the economic impact. By contrast a lack of economic diversification – reflected in overreliance on the tourism sector or oil production – has significantly amplified the shock.
Container Shipping in Times of Covid-19: Why Freight Rates Have Surged and Implications for Policy Makers
Jun 2021
Working Paper
At the start of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic expectations were that seaborne trade including containerized trade would experience a strong downturn. However changes in consumption and shopping patterns triggered by the pandemic including a surge in electronic commerce as well as lockdown measures have in fact led to increased import demand for manufactured consumer goods a large part of which is moved in shipping containers. As at the third quarter of 2020 lessening of lockdown measures and varying speeds of recovery worldwide as well as stimulus packages supporting consumer demand inventory-building and frontloading in anticipation of new waves of the pandemic contributed to leading to a further increase in containerized trade flows.
What Triggers Economic Insecurity and Who Is Most at Risk?
Jun 2021
Working Paper
A full recovery from the pandemic crisis is not possible without addressing economic security and reducing inequality. Otherwise people and families who already faced more insecurity are likely to be excluded from the benefits of recovery. This policy brief highlights inequality in the experience of economic security focusing on the risks to livelihoods and the protections against those risks as laid out by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. In recognizing the right to “security in the event of unemployment sickness disability widowhood old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond one’s control” the Universal Declaration highlights the crucial importance of economic security to everyone’s rights and well-being.
How Long Will it Take for LDCs and SIDS to Recover From the Impacts of COVID-19?
Jun 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is entailing huge costs worldwide. To help developing countries formulate policy responses to minimize negative impacts of the COVID-19 possible size and duration of the shocks on most vulnerable countries i.e. least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and their resilience to overcome the shocks need to be assessed. This paper quantitatively examines possible paths of LDCs and SIDS recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis using an autoregressive model of income growth and a panel regression model of external demand for LDCs and SIDS. Evidence from the experience of the 2007-08 global financial crisis suggests that the income growth of LDCs and SIDS had not recovered to the level of pre-crisis rates even 5 years after the crisis. This suggests a slower recovery for many LDCs and SIDS while developed economies were able to achieve a quick recovery. The magnitude of current COVID-19 crisis relative to previous shocks is unknown and so the regression analysis suggested that if income in advanced economies fell by 6 per cent in 2020 and bounced back in 2021 growth of per capita income in LDCs and SIDS may need about 4 to 5 years to be able to return to the projected path under the baseline scenario without the COVID-19 crisis. The actual speed and duration of recovery in LDCs and SIDS are likely to be slower and longer considering other factors such as additional impacts from shocks related to commodity prices and climate change.
Towards a New Trade Agenda for the Right to Food
Jun 2021
Working Paper
Access to food is a fundamental human right. Trade plays a key role in food security but an excessive exposure to global markets also increases risks. Trade policy needs to be advanced from a right-to-food perspective. This calls for the effective implementation and reform of existing World Trade Organization provisions. In 2021 the fifteenth session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the Twelfth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization will provide opportunities to incorporate the right-to-food agenda in the global trade architecture.
Small Island Developing States: Maritime Transport in the Era of a Disruptive Pandemic - Empower States to Fend Against Disruptions to Maritime Transportation Systems, Their Lifeline to the World
Jun 2021
Working Paper
The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have had less noticeable impacts on small island developing States (SIDS). However the impacts may be longer lasting and more critical. The pandemic has exacerbated the unique and overwhelming challenges in these States related to connectivity; a high level of dependence on external trade; remoteness and prohibitive transport costs; food security; infrastructure gaps; resilience; sustainability; and access to finance. This policy brief builds on the findings in Review of Maritime Transport 2020 and of the ongoing United Nations-wide project “Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics: Contactless seamless and collaborative solutions” launched in 2020 amid the pandemic. It highlights key priority actions and policy recommendations to support SIDS in strengthening their ability to respond to shocks and disruptions that undermine their maritime transportation systems and to future proof their maritime supply chains through sustainability and resilience-building efforts.
Accelerate Action to Revamp Production and Consumption Patterns: the Circular Economy, Cooperatives and the Social and Solidarity Economy
Aug 2021
Working Paper
Achieving sustainable development requires determined actions to revamp production and consumption patterns creating a resource-efficient and resilient post-pandemic recovery. The notion of the circular economy facilitates greater level of social and environmental sustainability by emphasizing the vision of an economic system that designs out waste and pollution keeps products and martials in use and recognizes the residual value in natural resources and post-consumption waste to regenerate the natural system. Cooperatives and other enterprises of the Social and Solidarity Economy (SSE) are recognized as taking a leading role in incorporating the circular economic model into their businesses and communities. More supportive measures from governments are needed to strength their contribution to accelerated progress towards the goals of the 2030 Agenda. Continued efforts to improve statistical information on the circular economy cooperatives and the wider SSE will help inform policy-making and facilitate transition to sustainable production and consumption.
Investing in Jobs and Social Protection for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery
Oct 2021
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health and socioeconomic crisis the world has faced in the past century exacerbating pre-existing and systemic inequalities and threatening the long-term livelihoods and well-being of hundreds of millions if not billions of people. Recovery trends between advanced and developing economies are deeply uneven spurred by vast differences in access to vaccines the fiscal capacity and ability of governments to respond supply chain failures a growing digital divide the impacts of the growing complexity of conflict and displacement and the threat of a looming debt crisis. This two-track recovery is now creating a great divergence which if not corrected will undermine trust and solidarity and fuel conflict and forced migration and make the world more vulnerable to future crises including climate change.
Enhancing Productive Capacities and Transforming Least Developed Country Economies Through Institution-building: Upcoming United Nations Conferences and the Way Forward
Aug 2021
Working Paper
In this policy brief UNCTAD intends to shed light on the role of institutions in fostering productive capacities and examines Institutions as one of the eight categories of the UNCTAD Productive Capacities Index. In the context of the formulation and implementation of policies and strategies in support of LDCs recommendations are provided to support the building of stronger and more effective institutions a prerequisite for fostering productive capacities.
Time for Transformative Changes for SDGs: What the Data Tells Us
Oct 2021
Working Paper
COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the implementation of the 2030 Agenda undermining decades of development efforts. The crisis has pushed hundreds millions of people back into poverty and hunger caused decades of learning loss worsened inequalities and much more. The availability of timely open and disaggregated data will be essential to inform policy making and steer recovery efforts. New investments in data and information infrastructure as well as human capacity are needed now more than ever. The world finds itself at a critical juncture where achieving the SDGs will depend on whether or not the COVID-19 crisis serves as a much-needed wake-up call that spurs a decade of truly transformative action to deliver for people and planet.
Embracing a New Conceptual Framework for the Statistical Measurement of Illicit Financial Flows
Jul 2021
Working Paper
This policy brief examines illicit financial flows linked to the export of extractive resources from Africa methodologies to measure them and their relationship to the new conceptual framework for the statistical measurement of illicit financial flows as part of the measurement of progress towards Goal 16 target 16.4. It highlights opportunities to curb illicit financial flows using improved methodologies for customs fraud detection and to enhance resource governance with regard to metals that will be in high demand for the battery-storage technology needed in the transition to a low-carbon future.
Harnessing Longevity in the Future of Work
Oct 2021
Working Paper
Promoting the inclusion of older persons in the new realities of work requires addressing barriers in their access to decent work including age-based discrimination rigid labour markets inadequate access to life-long learning and participation in informal employment and unpaid care work.
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