Decent Work and Economic Growth
Import Diversification and Trade Diversion: Insights From United States of America - China Trade Patterns
ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤
Working Paper
This study examines United States import diversification patterns between 2017 and 2022. It finds that import diversification from China was of a larger magnitude and scope compared to other countries. The study shows that the magnitude of the decline in China's market share across various sectors was mainly influenced by trade policy changes and industry characteristics. The analysis also examines trade diversion effects, which have benefited some countries' exports, finding that these effects were largely driven by the United States' trade policy stance and the economic competitiveness of those countries. In recent years, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, logistics challenges, and global pandemics have fuelled discussions on supply chain resilience. A common narrative arising from these events has been the need to mitigate risks stemming from potential trade policy changes and supply chain disruptions. A substantial part of this narrative has focused on the United States of America and China because of their strong trade relationship, shifts in their trade policy stance1, and supply diversification strategies. The substantial change in United States import patterns from China provides a valuable opportunity to examine the outcomes and drivers of supply diversification strategies. This analysis is important for both policymakers and businesses, offering empirical insights into how global trade relationships are evolving.
Trade Policy and Trade Resilience During the 2020 Trade Downturn
ديسمبر ٢٠٢٢
Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in large and heterogeneous declines in bilateral trade flows. This study investigates whether these diverse effects can be explained by differences in trade costs as measured by pre-existing trade policies such as tariffs, non-tariff measures, and participation in trade agreements. Results indicate that trade flows subject to higher trade costs declined by more than average during 2020. The results also show that the effect of higher trade costs was lower the larger the importer’s market share. We interpret these results as evidence that the fall in demand during 2020 caused less-established and higher-cost suppliers to be squeezed out of international markets. More generally, the results of this paper have important implications for development, as they indicate that similar trade costs impose relatively higher burdens on smaller exporters.
Aligning Carbon Markets With Sustainable Development Goals in the Least Developed Countries
ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤
Working Paper
Carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement presents opportunities and risks for the least developed countries (LDCs). Rather than participating in carbon markets in an ad-hoc fashion, LDCs should build a policy framework that integrates carbon trading into existing development policy and climate policy strategies. The international community can support LDCs through enhanced capacity-building and by strengthening the integrity of carbon markets. This policy brief outlines key benefits, challenges, and policy recommendations for LDCs and development partners to mitigate risks associated with carbon trading under Article 6 and ensure that carbon markets support sustainable development in LDCs.
Family-oriented Policies and Programmes in Voluntary National Reviews (2020-2024)
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
Family-oriented policies and programmes involve families in their design and implementation. They promote the wellbeing of family units and their members in areas such as child education and development, intergenerational care and support, and work and family reconciliation, thus contributing to several SDGs. The upcoming Second World Summit for Social Development provides an opportunity to take stock of the importance of family-oriented policies for social development and demonstrate that further advancement of family policy in the context of the 2030 Agenda depends on how well issues of family policy are integrated into the overall development planning at national levels. This brief presents a global analysis of 171 Voluntary National Reviews (2020–2024) from 141 countries addressing core aspects of family well-being by focusing on policies related to: poverty reduction (SDG1), food security and nutrition (SDG2), health and well-being (SDG3), quality education (SDG4), and gender equality (SDG5). It also considers complementary goals that influence the well-being of families, including access to water and sanitation (SDG6), housing, transportation, and inclusive urban development (SDG11), reduced inequalities (SDG10), as well as peaceful and inclusive societies (SDG16). Notably, the period under scrutiny spans five years and is marked by the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery efforts. Moreover, the reporting countries vary in levels of development and state capacities.
From the First to the Second World Summit for Social Development: Reclaiming a Broad Vision of Social Progress
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
The World Social Report 2025 warns that piecemeal approaches are no match for the scale and interconnectedness of today’s challenges. Rising economic insecurity, persistent inequality, eroding trust, and social fragmentation demand coordinated responses grounded in a shared commitment to equality, social justice, and solidarity. The 2025 World Summit for Social Development offers a chance to reaffirm the Copenhagen Declaration and reapply its principles to current realities, restoring a holistic vision of social progress as the foundation of a more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable future.
Anticipating the Extent and Pace of Population Ageing in SIDS Can Help Build a More Sustainable Future
يوليو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
Over the next decades, most small island developing States (SIDS) are projected to experience a rapid increase in both the share and the number of people aged 65 years or over. In half of the SIDS, the size of the older population will double between now and 2055. All SIDS, even those with youthful populations today, should embrace forward-looking strategies to capitalize on the opportunities that population ageing will bring, while also addressing the context-specific challenges it may pose.
Preparing to Seize Artificial Intelligence Opportunities With Strategic National Policies
أغسطس ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
Developing countries need to strengthen national readiness and design targeted policies in order to prepare for a world rapidly being reshaped by artificial intelligence and other frontier technologies. National competitiveness increasingly depends on science, technology and innovation (STI) and knowledge-intensive services. Some developing countries exhibit significant potential relative to their income levels; most need to design industrial and innovation policies that account for the role of knowledge-intensive services and the uncertainties surrounding research and development. It is also critical to consider the diffusion and direction of frontier technologies and their impact on the economy, and to adapt catch-up strategies accordingly. Developing countries need to quickly respond to the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, implementing policies that align with national development goals and agendas. It may be more feasible to immediately support the adoption of artificial intelligence for particular sectoral needs, yet developing countries should also formulate long-term strategic plans to steer national artificial intelligence development. Otherwise, as latecomers, they may be left with few options.
Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Hurricane Dorian and the COVID-19 Pandemic on MSMEs in The Bahamas
يناير ٢٠٢٢
Working Paper
This report provides an assessment of the social and economic impact and efficacy of post Dorian and COVID support programmes on micro, small and mid-sized enterprises in Grand Bahama and Abaco, as well as Recommendations for policy development to improve resiliency, promote social and economic recovery and mitigate the impact of future disaster on MSMES. This report links the available institutional research on the distinct and separate impacts of Hurricane Dorian and COVID-19 with new data collected from an online survey created on the KOBO Humanitarian platform in collaboration with UNDP SURGE Data Hub, Country Support Management Team of the UNDP Crisis Bureau. The survey, launched from November 2020 to February 2021 and promoted via radio and social media, received 486 responses from affected owners of MSMEs in Grand Bahama and Abaco, some of whom had been displaced because of the storm. The respondents represent almost 14 percent of all registered MSMEs on the islands prior to Hurricane Dorian.
Demographic Trends in the Arab Region: 1950–2030
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
The Arab region comprises 22 countries with considerable social, economic, political, cultural and geographic diversity. This diversity is further reflected in the region’s demographic profile, with countries at different stages in the demographic transition, which is characterized by a shift from high levels of fertility and mortality to low levels, largely attributed to advances in healthcare, education and economic development. This statistical brief outlines the Arab region’s demographic profile, highlighting notable similarities and differences among the 22 countries today. The brief further highlights demographic trends that the region has experienced since 1950, such as the overall decrease in fertility and decrease in infant mortality rates, as well as the significant gains in life expectancy, and considers how these trends compare to other regions of the world. Finally, the policy implications of demographic change are explored.
United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impact on the Arab Region
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
This policy brief examines recent United States tariff shockwaves and the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting both direct impacts – particularly on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – and indirect spillovers through weaker demand from China and the European Union, and falling oil prices. Preliminary estimates for 2025 suggest moderate macroeconomic effects for the Agadir Agreement countries and limited impacts for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The brief underscores rising fiscal vulnerabilities and calls upon Arab States to strengthen regional integration, diversify trade and engage with the United States to enhance economic resilience.
الاتجاهات الديمغرافية في المنطقة العربية: 1950–2030
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
تضمّ المنطقة العربية 22 بلداً تتّسم بتنوّع اجتماعي واقتصادي وسياسي وثقافي وجغرافي واسع. ويتجلّى هذا التنوّع في الملامح الديمغرافية للمنطقة، حيث قطعت البلدان المختلفة مراحل متباينة على مسار الانتقال الديمغرافي. ويتميّز هذا المسار بانخفاض مستويات الخصوبة والوفيات المرتفعة إلى مستويات متدنية، وذلك بفعل التقدّم في الرعاية الصحية والتعليم والتنمية الاقتصادية. ويتناول هذا الموجز الإحصائي الملامح الديمغرافية للمنطقة العربية، ويبيّن أوجه الشبه والاختلاف الملحوظة بين البلدان الـ22 اليوم. كما يسلّط الضوء على الاتجاهات الديمغرافية التي شهدتها المنطقة منذ عام 1950، مثل التراجع الإجمالي في معدلات الخصوبة وانخفاض معدلات وفيات الأطفال، إضافة إلى التحسّن الكبير في متوسط العمر المتوقّع. ويقارن الموجز هذه الاتجاهات مع الاتجاهات التي تشهدها المناطق الأخرى في العالم. وختاماً، يتطرّق الموجز إلى آثار التغيرات الديمغرافية على مستوى السياسات.
تقرير حالة الهجرة الدولية في المنطقة العربية لعام 2025 العلاقة بين الهجرة والتنمية: مساراتٌ نحو الازدهار: موجز سياسي
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
لقد شهدت العلاقة بين الهجرة والتنمية اهتماما متزايدا في السنوات الأخيرة، على الصعيدين العالمي والإقليمي، مما يعكس الأثر العميق لتنقّل السكان على بلدان المنشأ وبلدان المقصد داخل المنطقة وخارجها. وتتناول طبعة عام 2024 من تقرير حالة الهجرة الدولية في المنطقة العربية العلاقة الهامة بين الهجرة والتنمية في منطقة تمر بتحولات ديموغرافية واقتصادية واجتماعية وتكنولوجية تحويلية. ويقدم التقرير تحليلا لاتجاهات الهجرة والتحديات والفرص، مع التركيز على الدور المزدوج للهجرة بوصفها محركا ونتاجا للتنمية. وتسلط الرؤى الرئيسية الضوء على إمكانات الهجرة للمساهمة بشكل إيجابي في المجتمعات المضيفة وبلدان المنشأ. فالمهاجرون يجلبون مهارات ومعارف وتنوّعات ثقافية قيّمة، بينما تدعم التحويلات المالية الأسر وتقلل من الفقر وتحفّز النمو الاقتصادي. لكنّ تحقيق هذه النتائج يتطلب سياسات تحمي حقوق المهاجرين وتعظّم مساهماتهم في التنمية. هذا وإنّ التعاون الإقليمي ضروري أيضا، حيث إن الطبيعة المترابطة للبلدان العربية تعني أن سياسات الهجرة في بلد من البلدان قد تؤثر بشكل كبير على جيرانه. ويقدم هذا التقرير خارطة طريق لتسخير إمكانات الهجرة، مع التصدي للتحديات التي تواجهها. فمن خلال اعتماد نهج شامل واستشرافي، يمكن للمنطقة العربية أن تنصّب الهجرة كمصدر للقوة والقدرة على الصمود والازدهار المشترك.
Situation Report on International Migration in the Arab Region 2025, Migration-development Nexus: Pathways to Prosperity - Policy Brief
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
The migration-development nexus has witnessed increasing attention in recent years, both globally and regionally, reflecting the profound impact that population movements have on both countries of origin and of destination, both within and beyond the region. The 2024 edition of the Situation Report on International Migration in the Arab Region examines the critical nexus of migration and development in a region undergoing transformative demographic, economic, social and technological shifts. It offers an analysis of migration trends, challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the dual role of migration as both a driver and a product of development. Key insights highlight the potential of migration to contribute positively to host societies and countries of origin. Migrants bring valuable skills, knowledge and cultural diversity, while remittances support families, reduce poverty, and spur economic growth. However, achieving these outcomes requires policies that safeguard migrants’ rights and maximize their contributions to development. Regional cooperation is also essential, as the interconnected nature of Arab countries means migration policies in one country can significantly affect neighbouring nations. The present report provides a road map to harness migration’s potential, while addressing its challenges. By adopting a holistic and forward-looking approach, the Arab region can position migration as a source of strength, resilience and shared prosperity.
Skills Across Borders: A Comparative Analysis of Labour Markets in Qatar and Tunisia
مايو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
This policy brief explores differences in skills requirements in job roles in Qatar and Tunisia. In Qatar, jobs tend to require specialized, industry-aligned skills; in Tunisia, employers tend to place greater emphasis on cross-functional competencies. High unemployment in Tunisia, particularly among graduates, drives skilled workers to Qatar, many of whom take skilled jobs in the ICT, healthcare, education and administration sectors. The brief recommends targeted pre-migration training, cross-national certifications, and partnerships with Qatari employers to address skill gaps. It also calls for Tunisia to establish skills repatriation programmes to help it to make the best possible use of returning migrants’ expertise in developing the local work force. These strategies, if implemented, could contribute to enhancing Tunisian migrant workers’ employability abroad while fostering economic growth in their home country.
بين أسواق العمل في تونس وقطر: مقارنة مهارات العاملين التونسيين
مايو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
يستطلع هذا الموجز السياساتي الاختلافات في المهارات المطلوبة لأداء عدد من الوظائف في تونس وقطر. ففي تونس، يركّز أصحاب العمل بشكل أكبر على الكفاءات التي تمكّن من أداء وظائف متعدّدة. وفي قطر، تتطلب الوظائف مهارات متخصصة تتّسق مع المجالات التي تنتمي إليها. وبسبب ارتفاع البطالة في تونس، وخاصة بين خريجي الجامعات، يهاجر العاملون المهرة إلى قطر، فيعمل كثير منهم في وظائف تتطلّب مهاراتٍ عالية في قطاعات تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات، والرعاية الصحية، والتعليم، والإدارة. ويوصي الموجز بتوفير تدريب محدّد الأهداف للعاملين التونسيّين قبل الهجرة، وإصدار شهادات معترف بها عبر الحدود الوطنية، وبناء شراكات مع أصحاب العمل القطريين لسد النقص في المهارات. ويدعو تونس إلى وضع برامج لإعادة المهارات إلى الوطن، لمساعدتها على الاستفادة من خبرات المهاجرين العائدين في تطوير القوة العاملة المحلية. ويمكن لهذه الاستراتيجيات، إذا ما نُفّذت، أن تزيد من إمكانيّة توظيف العاملين المهاجرين التونسيين في الخارج، وأن تعزّز النمو الاقتصادي في بلدهم الأصلي.
الوظائف الخضراء في العالم العربي: مسارٌٌ نحو الاستدامة
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
يتناول موجز السياسات هذا الواقع المتبدّل للوظائف الخضراء في المنطقة العربية، مستنداً إلى بيانات آنية مستخرجة من مرصد مهارات الإسكوا لتحديد الاتجاهات والفجوات والفرص. وعلى الرغم من الزخم العالمي، لا تمثل الوظائف الخضراء سوى 5.06 في المائة من مجموع إعلانات الوظائف على الإنترنت في المنطقة العربية حتى عام 2024، وقد سُجِّلت أعلى نسب منها في اقتصادات كبرى مثل المملكة العربية السعودية وعُمان وقطر. ويتناول هذا الموجز قطاع النفط والغاز بمزيدٍ من التفصيل لتقييم مدى تحوّله نحو الاستدامة. وتُظْهِرُ النتائج أن 23 في المائة من الوظائف ضمن هذا القطاع باتت تُصنَّف على أنها وظائف خضراء، مما يُشير إلى بوادر أولية للتحوّل الأخضر في أحد أكثر القطاعات كثافة في الانبعاثات الكربونية في المنطقة. ومع ذلك، تبقى الفجوة قائمة بين المهن التي تتّسم بمواءمة عالية مع التحوّل الأخضر وتلك التي تسجِّل طلباً مرتفعاً. وثمّة حاجة إلى سياسات تعزِّز الاستثمار الأخضر، وتدمج مبادئ الاستدامة في أنظمة التعليم والقوى العاملة، وتعزِّز أنظمة معلومات سوق العمل، في سبيل توجيه التحوّل الأخضر العادل والشامل.
The Role of Supreme Audit Institutions in Leaving No One Behind
سبتمبر ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
This policy brief draws attention to the value of external audits to Governments’ efforts to leave no one behind. It highlights some impacts of audit reports on equity, equality and inclusion. It then presents observations and examples from a review of audit report recommendations, which can inform and guide Governments in strengthening their work in this area.
Empowering a Sustainable Future: Green Jobs in the Arab Region
يونيو ٢٠٢٥
Working Paper
This policy brief examines the evolving landscape of green jobs in the Arab region, drawing on real-time data from the ESCWA Skills Monitor to identify trends, gaps and opportunities. Despite global momentum, green jobs account for just 5.06 per cent of online job postings in the Arab region as of 2024, with the highest concentrations observed in larger economies such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar. This policy brief takes a closer look at the oil and gas sector to assess the extent of its transition toward sustainability. Findings show that 23 per cent of jobs within the sector are now classified as green, signalling early signs of greening in one of the region’s most carbon-intensive industries. However, there remains a disconnect between occupations with high green alignment and those in high demand. Policies that scale up green investment, embed sustainability in education and workforce systems, and enhance labour market intelligence are needed to guide a just and inclusive green transition.
2021 Parliamentary Elections: Post-electoral Survey
يناير ٢٠٢٢
Working Paper
The post-electoral survey presents the most important facts and results about 2021 Parliamentary Elections. The main purpose of the survey was to measure the impact of civic education campaigns of voters aimed at changes in voters’ perception of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) and the Centre for Continuous Electoral Training (CCET) activity. The data are analyzed in comparison with three other poste-electoral surveys: Presidential Elections held in November 2020, Parliamentary Elections held in February 2019 and Local General Elections held in October 2019. The research was conducted on the basis of a nationally representative sample, covering both rural and urban areas. The target group included the population with the right to vote aged 18 years and over, residing in 314 localities across the country. 70% of questionnaires were developed in Romanian, and 30% in Russian. The sampling error is ± 2.6%. The data were collected in August – September 2021. The opinion survey has been conducted in the framework of the “Enhancing Democracy in Moldova through Inclusive and Transparent Elections” project implemented by UNDP Moldova, with the financial support from the American people provided through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The expressed points of view belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the UNDP, financing institution or Government of the Republic of Moldova.
Gaza 2021 Infrastructure Damage Assessment Report
مايو ٢٠٢٢
Working Paper
The May 2021 hostilities were the fourth round of offensive by Israel on the Gaza Strip, following the 2008, 2012, and 2014 hostilities. It resulted in devastating consequences, taking the lives of 261 Palestinians, including 67 children and 41 women. It led to a considerable destruction of residential and commercial buildings, as well as damages of schools, health facilities, water and power networks, roads, and public buildings, which in turn disrupted the provision of vital basic services. UNDP led the design and implementation of a detailed infrastructure damage assessment from June to August 2021 in coordination with the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MoPWH) as well as line ministries, municipalities, the Palestinian Contractors Union (PCU), UNRWA, UNMAS, and in consultation with UN agencies, the cluster coordinators, and civil society actors. The primary purpose of the assessment was to identify real damages resulting from the May 2021 hostilities, to inform rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery interventions. It provides an estimate of two types of costs: a) reconstruction / rehabilitation to the state it was before the destruction / damages (Building Back as was – BBaw), and b) reconstruction / rehabilitation incorporating the principles of Building Forward Better.
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