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Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
The future of global trade
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a contraction in international trade in 2020 as widespread lockdowns triggered a collapse in demand and significant disruptions to global production networks. As global economic activity recovers global trade activity will improve but until 2022 it is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Beyond these short-term dynamics the pandemic shock is likely to accelerate ongoing structural trends-including the evolving configuration of global value chains (GVCs) the rise of the digital economy and the increasingly significant role of trade in services-which are shaping the future of the global trade landscape. In addition the rules-based multilateral trading system is facing unprecedented challenges amid ongoing disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and rising protectionism in parts of the world.
Executive summary
A once-in-a-century crisis—a Great Disruption unleashed by a viral pandemic—hit the world economy in 2020. The pandemic spread like a forest fire reaching every corner of the world infecting more than 90 million and killing close to 2 million people worldwide. For several months uncertainties and panic paralysed most economic activities in both developed and developing economies. Trade and tourism came to a grinding halt while job and output losses exceeded levels seen in any previous crisis. In a matter of months the number of people living in poverty increased sharply while income and wealth inequality trended towards new highs.
Acknowledgements
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021 is a report produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in partnership with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA).
Regional developments and outlook
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021
Jan 2021This is the United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy providing global and regional economic outlook for 2020 and 2021. A once-in-a-century crisis—a Great Disruption unleashed by a viral pandemic—hit the world economy in 2020. The pandemic spread like a forest fire reaching every corner of the world infecting more than 90 million and killing close to 2 million people worldwide. For several months uncertainties and panic paralysed most economic activities in both developed and developing economies. Trade and tourism came to a grinding halt while job and output losses exceeded levels seen in any previous crisis. In a matter of months the number of people living in poverty increased sharply while income and wealth inequality trended towards new highs. Governments around the world responded rapidly—and boldly—to stem the health and economic contagion of the crisis. Fiscal and monetary stimulus packages were quickly rolled out to save the economy. The crisis responses however entailed difficult choices between saving lives and saving livelihoods between speed of delivery and efficiency and between short-term costs and long-term impacts. Limited fiscal space and high levels of public debt constrained the ability of many developing countries to roll out sufficiently large stimulus packages. This report was produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs the five United Nations regional commissions the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development with contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization and other intergovernmental agencies.
Пересмотренные Руководящие принципы по оценке воздействия на окружающую среду в трансграничном контексте для стран Центральной Азии
Nov 2020This publication contains the Revised Guidelines which have been developed as a tool for the consistent practical implementation of transboundary environmental impact assessment procedures and to assist Central Asian countries in developing their national legislation in accordance with the Convention. The Revised Guidelines are structured along each of the procedural stages of a transboundary environmental impact assessment procedure that reflects the requirements of the Espoo Convention and are complemented by related good practice recommendations for the application of the Convention in the Central Asian subregional context.
Policy experiments: Building the future
Nov 2020The textile and apparel industry is one of the three priority areas that the Government of Ethiopia has identified for export-oriented activities – along with leather products and agroprocessing. Export-oriented manufacturing activities are expected to stimulate local technological development through linkages between foreign and local enterprises and provide the incentive that engagement in highly competitive export trade generates for learning and acquiring the technical skills and knowledge necessary to produce higher-value more sophisticated and high-quality products.
Policy components: Evaluating government action
Nov 2020The innovative activities that enable countries to move up the productivity technology and value ladder typically take place at the firm level but a firm usually does not innovate in isolation. Innovation depends upon a wider system comprising diverse actors and their interaction as well as the policy framework covering various policy domains. At the national level the National Innovation System (NIS) strongly shapes the country’s technological development and innovation performance.
Summary of the recommendations
Nov 2020On paper Ethiopia has most of the policies regulations background studies and road maps necessary to kick-start a successful process of technological learning innovation and technological upgrading. However there is a serious implementation gap across public institutions either because of capacity constraints or misallocation of efforts and resources. Ethiopia also needs to build its productive capacities to add value produce a wide range of products diversify the economy and generate income.
Preface
Nov 2020UNCTAD Science Technology and Innovation Policy Reviews (STIP Reviews) are an analytical and policy learning process for a country’s science technology and innovation (STI) stakeholders to reach a clearer understanding of the key strengths and weaknesses of their innovation systems and identify strategic priorities for its development. The result of this process is documented in the STIP Review document and considered at the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development (CSTD).
Explanatory notes
Nov 2020References in the text to the United States are to the United States of America and those to the United Kingdom are to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Acknowledgements
Nov 2020The STIP Review of Ethiopia was prepared by the Division on Technology and Logistics of UNCTAD under the overall guidance of Shamika Sirimanne Director. The report was prepared by Clovis Freire and Michael Lim (UNCTAD) Mulu Gebreeyesus Senior Researcher at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute and Taffere Tesfachew Principal Adviser Ethiopian Investment Commission Member of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy and Member of STIxNET (UNCTAD) who was the lead consultant for the STIP Review and played an instrumental role in the drafting and successful completion of this report.