Conclusions, other considerations, and next steps

Methodically simulated estimates here suggest that the median amount of 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) of dried and processed ephedra plant are needed to produce a pure kilogram of methamphetamine. Considering that about half of the plant’s weight comes from moisture, the equivalent amount of freshly harvested ephedra may weigh 437 kg. In contrast, the median amount of 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) of cold medications are needed to produce a kilogram of pure methamphetamine. Use of cold medication drastically reduces the total amount needed by one seventh. Use of industrial-grade ephedrine or pseudoephedrine was not modelled but because those inputs are highly pure, and synthesis of methamphetamine can be done directly, drastic reductions in input-to-output ratios, perhaps in the low single kilogram amounts, are to be expected. Those starting inputs are much more efficient and seizures of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine precursors emanating from South Asia, a region with large chemical sectors, have been reported.

Sustainable Development Goals:

Good Health and Well-Being