Brazil
Desempeño de las exportaciones de China y el Brasil hacia América Latina, 1994-2009
En este trabajo se analiza la estructura de las exportaciones del Brasil y de China a los mercados latinoamericanos, con el propósito de evaluar las repercusiones de la transformación de China en una potencia mundial y un importante socio comercial de los países de la región. Mediante la estimación de varios indicadores de comercio internacional y competitividad se pudo constatar que las exportaciones chinas, en especial las manufacturas, están desplazando a las brasileñas en el mercado regional, lo que constituye una posible amenaza para el Brasil.
Brasil: Crisis financiera internacional y políticas anticíclicas
En este trabajo se evalúa la eficacia de las medidas anticíclicas adoptadas por el gobierno brasileño para mitigar los efectos de la crisis de las hipotecas de alto riesgo. En este contexto, se analizan las repercusiones de las políticas monetaria, fiscal y crediticia en algunos de los principales agregados macroeconómicos. El análisis empírico reveló que la política crediticia expansionista fue un factor decisivo para aumentar el consumo de las familias y el producto agregado durante el período de la crisis. Mientras que la política monetaria expansionista también fue importante para incrementar el producto agregado durante dicho período, los gastos relativos a las inversiones no resultaron sensibles a las políticas anticíclicas.
Brasil: Mecanismos de transmisión de la política fiscal. Una investigación empírica
El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar empíricamente si la relación entre la deuda y el producto interno bruto (pib) generó efectos en variables reales y nominales como la demanda de moneda, la tasa de interés nominal, la inversión y la brecha del producto en el período de enero de 1995 a marzo de 2008. Específicamente, se procura determinar los canales de transmisión de la política fiscal y establecer si esta fue activa o pasiva en ese período. Se concluye que existen pruebas empíricas de que la política fiscal fue activa y la política monetaria pasiva, elementos que caracterizan a un modelo no ricardiano.
La economía del crecimiento impulsado por la demanda. Teoría y evidencia respecto del Brasil
Se describe la teoría del crecimiento impulsado por la demanda y se aporta evidencia de la existencia de un modelo semejante en la economía brasileña. A partir de la metodología desarrollada por Atesoglu (2002), se realizaron pruebas econométricas para corroborar la hipótesis de que la economía brasileña se basa en el crecimiento promovido por la demanda. Los resultados indican que prácticamente el 85% de la tasa de crecimiento del pib real en el período 1990-2005 se explica por variables de la demanda, principalmente las exportaciones y el consumo público. Dado que la actual crisis fiscal elimina la posibilidad de expansión fiscal, la única opción para el Brasil es adoptar un modelo de crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones. En este artículo se demuestra también que el mantenimiento de un tipo de cambio real (TCR) devaluado es un factor importante para el incremento de las exportaciones en países en desarrollo como el Brasil.
Tecnología, comercio y calificación en el Brasil: Evidencias de datos microeconómicos
En los años noventa, el Brasil se destacó por el rápido proceso de liberalización comercial que desde el año 2000 incrementó con fuerza las exportaciones e importaciones, aumentando sustancialmente la demanda relativa de mano de obra calificada. Se exploran aquí los posibles vínculos entre estos dos fenómenos paralelos, concentrándose en la posible repercusión de la tecnología nacional, la complementariedad del capital y la apertura comercial en la demanda relativa de mano de obra calificada en las empresas manufactureras brasileñas. Se recurre a una nueva base de datos de panel de dichas empresas del período 1997-2005. La evidencia empírica confirma que la tecnología influyó en la decisión de incrementar la calificación de estas empresas. De hecho, las estimaciones permiten concluir que la tecnología nacional y la formación de capital son complementos para los trabajadores calificados y los bienes de capital importados actúan como un componente del comercio que incentiva la calificación.
Municipios brasileños: Economías de aglomeración y niveles de desarrollo en 1997 y 2007
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre las economías de aglomeración de tipo Marshall-Arrow-Romer (economías de especialización) y de tipo Jacobs-Porter (economías de diversificación) y el desarrollo desigual de los municipios brasileños, estimado según la productividad del trabajo (medido por el salario medio del trabajador). Para ello se construyeron medidas de especialización con respecto a los años 1997 y 2007. Sobre la base de esos datos se probó empíricamente la relación entre los índices de especialización y diversificación industrial y la productividad mediante regresiones de muestras finitas, que permiten captar la heterogeneidad de los datos. Los resultados confirman la dualidad entre las regiones norte-nordeste y sur-sudestecentrooeste, ampliamente documentada en otras investigaciones. No obstante, es necesario analizar esa dualidad teniendo en cuenta que algunas ciudades no se inscriben en la misma dinámica de la región a que pertenecen.
Brasil: Cambio estructural y crecimiento con restricción de balanza de pagos
Se sostiene que las diferencias en las tasas de crecimiento del producto se vinculan a las diferencias en las elasticidades-renta que, a su vez, son determinadas por el grado de intensidad tecnológica de la producción nacional. Para corroborar esta hipótesis se efectuaron pruebas estadísticas. Se estimaron las elasticidades hipotéticas a fin de demostrar su validez en el caso brasileño: i) básica, ii) ampliada con flujos de capitales, y iii) implícita. Se emplearon técnicas de cointegración y un vector de corrección de errores en las estimaciones de las elasticidades reales para cada categoría tecnológica de producto de la pauta comercial brasileña. Los resultados se corroboraron mediante la investigación de funciones de impulso-respuesta y la descomposición de los errores finales de predicción, confirmándose que los bienes de mayor intensidad tecnológica presentan una elasticidadrenta más elevada. Así, según la ley de Thirlwall, una mayor producción nacional de esos bienes impulsaría el crecimiento.
El mercado del biodiésel y las políticas públicas: Comparación de los casos argentino y brasileño
En este trabajo se analiza comparativamente el desarrollo del mercado del biodiésel en la Argentina y el Brasil, atendiendo a los aspectos institucionales de la formulación de la política y sus repercusiones. El estudio se efectuó mediante un análisis del proceso de formulación de las políticas, junto con una discusión sobre su impacto al examinar la información estadística. Entre los resultados se destacan las divergencias en los objetivos de la política en ambos países. En el caso argentino ha sido relevante el problema del abastecimiento de gasóleo, mientras que en el Brasil resaltan los objetivos de promoción de la agricultura familiar. Asimismo, en el caso brasileño se observan la importancia de la empresa Petróleo Brasileiro (PETROBRAS) y algunas deficiencias en el alcance de los objetivos; mientras que en el caso argentino se aprecia que el mercado externo continúa siendo el motor de la industria.
Percepción y preocupación ambiental en distintas regiones metropolitanas del Brasil: eslabones perdidos y evidencia adicional
Brasil: Diferencias de productividad en las empresas según sector industrial
En este artículo se intenta explicar cómo el proceso de innovación está determinado por factores externos a la empresa, cuya productividad se calcula y analiza en función de los factores sistémicos de innovación. Con ese fin, se presentan las competencias internas de las empresas para innovar, que explican la variación de su productividad por sector. La productividad de las empresas industriales se construye mediante el método del residuo de Abramovitz (de la contabilidad social), denominándosela productividad total de los factores (ptf), así como residuo de Solow. Sin embargo, se evitan algunos problemas teóricos como el efecto de escala, de agregación y de la heterogeneidad de los factores considerados en el modelo. La ptf estimada de las empresas industriales brasileñas se explica por sus competencias internas y la innovación de producto en el sector de la empresa, constatándose que la innovación depende de las instituciones localizadas en la industria.
Brasil: ¿Cómo reaccionan los mercados financieros ante los anuncios de política monetaria del banco central en un esquema de metas de inflación?
Los anuncios del banco central son trascendentales para guiar las expectativas. Empero, la investigación correspondiente con respecto a los países que emergen es escasa. Dado que el Brasil es un importante país emergente con políticas de fijación de objetivos de inflación, se analiza aquí la influencia de la política monetaria y los anuncios del banco central en la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés. Mediante el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO), el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) y el modelo de autorregresión vectorial (VAR) se examina la dirección de las tasas de interés al ser afectadas por los anuncios del banco central y la política monetaria. Puesto que los agentes económicos analizan las actas de las reuniones del Comité de Política Monetaria, la política y los anuncios mencionados influyen poderosamente en la formación de expectativas sobre las tasas de interés para diferentes plazos en el Brasil.
Brasil, 1981-2013: Efectos del crecimiento económico y de la desigualdad de los ingresos en la pobreza
En este artículo se analizan los efectos del crecimiento económico y la desigualdad de los ingresos en la pobreza del Brasil entre 1981 y 2013. Para ello se utiliza un modelo de panel dinámico, mediante el método generalizado de momentos de dos pasos desarrollado por Blundell y Bond (1998) para tres períodos. El primero, que comprende a los otros dos, va de 1981 a 2013, mientras que el segundo y el tercero corresponden a las etapas anterior y posterior a la implementación del Plan Real (1981-1994 y 1995-2013, respectivamente). Los resultados muestran que, para combatir la pobreza en el Brasil, las políticas de crecimiento económico que promueven simultáneamente el aumento de los ingresos y la reducción de las disparidades son preferibles a las que priorizan solo el aumento de los ingresos medios. Se observa también un crecimiento a favor de los pobres en el período posterior al Plan Real.
Más allá de los controles de capital: Regulación de los mercados de derivados en moneda extranjera en la República de Corea y el Brasil después de la crisis financiera mundial
Elasticidades ingreso y desigualdad de la pobreza en áreas urbanas y rurales de los estados brasileños: Un enfoque espacial
Esta investigación busca verificar el valor de las elasticidades ingreso y desigualdad de la pobreza en las áreas urbanas y rurales de los estados brasileños. Una metodología con datos de panel capaz de abarcar los efectos espaciales mediante un modelo de rezago espacial permitiría verificar la existencia de desbordamientos espaciales de la pobreza en las situaciones censales estudiadas. Los cambios en el crecimiento y las desigualdades causan desbordamientos espaciales de la proporción de pobres en las áreas urbanas brasileñas, esto no existe en las áreas rurales. Al verificar la existencia de efectos indirectos espaciales en las áreas urbanas, se muestra que las medidas de lucha contra la pobreza en esas zonas deben aplicarse a nivel nacional. En las áreas rurales, la inexistencia de efectos indirectos espaciales de la proporción de pobres permite la aplicación de políticas públicas de lucha contra la pobreza rural tanto a nivel estatal como nacional.
Los determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa en el Brasil: Análisis empírico del período 2001-2013
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar los determinantes del flujo de inversión extranjera directa (IED) hacia el Brasil entre 2001 y 2013. Para ello se empleó un modelo de vectores de corrección de errores (VEC) para el análisis de la función de largo plazo y de la función de impulso-respuesta. Los resultados indican que los niveles de actividad económica, salario y productividad se relacionan positivamente con el ingreso de inversión extranjera directa. Esto indica que, al orientarse hacia el mercado brasileño, los inversionistas siguen una estrategia de búsqueda de mercados y de eficiencia. Aunque menos relevantes, la estabilidad de la economía nacional y el tipo de cambio también resultaron estadísticamente significativos para el ingreso de IED.
Brasil: localización industrial y encadenamientos sectoriales, el caso de la industria automovilística
Este trabajo tiene como objetivo presentar un análisis de la distribución espacial de la industria automotriz en el Brasil, entre 1995 y 2011, en relación con sus diversas categorías económicas, y mostrar sus encadenamientos sectoriales mediante las matrices interregionales de insumo-producto. A partir del cálculo del coeficiente de localización (QLij) de dicho período, se constató que la tercera ola de inversiones, iniciada en la segunda mitad de los años noventa, logró producir, de hecho, una ligera desconcentración espacial de este sector en la economía nacional. El cálculo del coeficiente de asociación geográfica (CAik) de diferentes años indicó una pequeña disminución, pese a que se mantuvo un nivel significativo de concentración, lo que sugiere que la producción de vehículos es un proceso bastante integrado con otras actividades económicas. Esta integración se corroboró, especialmente, con respecto a la compra de insumos (efectos hacia atrás) en todas las regiones aquí analizadas.
Ciclos económicos, expectativas e inflación en el Brasil: Análisis a partir de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana
En este estudio se analiza la dinámica reciente de la inflación brasileña considerando distintas hipótesis de expectativas para observar la manera en que un posible comportamiento discrecional de la autoridad monetaria puede interferir en las expectativas con miras al futuro de los agentes y la forma en que esa interferencia puede afectar la respuesta de la inflación a su componente inercial y a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos en el marco de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana. Para ello se realizan estimaciones de dicha curva y de su versión híbrida con el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) consistente en presencia de heterocedasticidad y autocorrelación. Los resultados sugieren que, en una hipótesis de menor previsibilidad de los agentes, la inflación será más sensible a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos cuanto mayor sea su componente inercial.
Exportaciones del sector automotor brasileño al Mercado Común del Sur: ¿Desviación de comercio o reducción de costos?
El sector automotor es uno de los sectores donde más ha crecido el comercio entre los miembros del mercosur. Aquí se examina la eventual desviación de comercio en ese sector durante el período 1991-2010, suponiendo la reducción de costos de los productos dada la expansión del mercado. El análisis se basa en los conceptos de reducción de costos y supresión de comercio acuñados por Corden (1972), con que se captan los efectos de las economías de escala. Para verificar si el bloque evoluciona de acuerdo con las ventajas comparativas, se utilizan los índices de orientación regional y de ventajas comparativas reveladas en forma conjunta. Los resultados sugieren un aumento de la eficiencia en el caso de los productos del sector automotor, cuyas exportaciones desde el Brasil al mercosur fueron más dinámicas, pues el mercado ampliado y relativamente protegido permitió aprovechar las economías de escala características de la industria automotriz.
Productividad agropecuaria: Reducción de la brecha productiva entre el Brasil y los Estados Unidos de América
The economics of demand-led growth. Theory and evidence for Brazil
This article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real gdp in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables, mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion, Brazil’s only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.
Brazil: Structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth
This article argues that differences in gdp growth rates are related to differences in income-elasticities; and that these, in turn, depend on the technological intensity of domestic production. Statistical tests were conducted to verify this hypothesis; and the following hypothetical elasticities were estimated to demonstrate its validity for the Brazilian economy: (i) basic; (ii) expanded with capital flows; and (iii) implicit. Co-integration techniques were used in conjunction with vector error correction, to estimate real elasticities for each technological category of output in the Brazilian trade matrix. The results obtained were corroborated by analysing impulse-response functions and the decomposition of the forecast error variance, which confirmed that goods of higher technological intensity have higher income-elasticities. Thus, according to Thirlwall’s Law, increasing the domestic production of such goods should promote growth.
The biodiesel market and public policy: A comparative analysis of Argentina and Brazil
This article presents a comparative case study of the institutional aspects of policymaking and the impacts that this has had on the development of the biodiesel market in Argentina and Brazil. The study draws upon an analysis of the policymaking process and, based on the available statistical evidence, discusses how this has influenced the market’s development. Its findings underscore the differences between the two countries’ policy objectives. In Argentina, issues relating to the supply of petrodiesel have been a crucial factor, whereas, in Brazil, the promotion of family farming has been a major objective. In Brazil, Petrobras has played a significant role, but some of the country’s policy objectives in this area have not been fully met. In Argentina, the external market continues to be the driving force behind this industry.
Brazil: An empirical study on fiscal policy transmission
This article sets out to empirically determine whether the ratio between debt and gross domestic product (gdp) affected real and nominal variables such as the demand for money, the nominal interest rate, investment and the output gap, between January 1995 and March 2008. The specific aim is to identify fiscal-policy transmission channels and decide whether this policy was active or passive in the period in question. The study finds empirical evidence that fiscal policy was active and monetary policy passive —features that characterize a non-Ricardian model.
Brazil: The international financial crisis and counter-cyclical policies
This article evaluates the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical measures adopted by the Brazilian government to mitigate the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis, by analysing the repercussions of monetary, fiscal and credit policies on several of the main macroeconomic aggregates. The empirical analysis showed that expansionary credit policy was decisive for increasing family consumption and aggregate output during the crisis. While expansionary monetary policy also helped increase aggregate production during that period, investment expenditure did not respond to counter-cyclical policies.
Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation-targeting regime: the case of Brazil
Central bank communications are important for guiding expectations. For emerging countries, however, research on this issue is scarce. Because Brazil represents an important emerging country under inflation targeting, this paper studies the influence of monetary policy and central bank communications on the term structure of interest rates in Brazil. The study uses ordinary least squares (ols), generalized method of moments (gmm) and vector autoregresion (var) to examine the direction taken by interest rates when affected by central bank communications and monetary policy. The study finds evidence that because economic agents analyse the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meetings, monetary policy and central bank communications significantly influence the process of expectations formation for interest rates with different maturities in Brazil.
Keynesian economic policies: Reflections on the Brazilian economy, 1995-2009
As is well known, Keynes proposed deliberate government action, particularly the implementation of economic policies, to coordinate and stabilize the dynamic of monetary economies. In that context, this article aims to retrieve and describe the Keynes’ economic-policy prescriptions, specifically monetary, fiscal and exchangerate policies, and to analyse the Brazilian economy’s performance in terms of the operating rationale of Keynesian economic policy in the period 1995-2009. The study’s findings show that the economic policies implemented following the Real Plan did not keep the Brazilian economy on a sustained and stable growth path in the face of the endogenous and exogenous economic crises that occurred throughout the period. Moreover, its conclusions question the Keynesian credentials of the countercyclical policies implemented by the Brazilian economic authorities since the 2007-2008 international crisis.
An empirical analysis of technology absorption capacity of the Brazilian industry
The structural heterogeneity of family farming in Brazil
The Brazilian sugar and alcohol sector: Evolution, productive chain and innovations
The sugar and alcohol sector is one of the fastest growing and developing areas of the Brazilian economy, although some specialists worry unduly that sugarcane cultivation will replace food-crop plantations. This article analyses how Brazil and the State of São Paulo became major players in that sector, and expounds a theory on the relevance of innovations for increasing competitiveness, productivity and the number of byproducts. The study analyses global value chains to gauge their importance and gain a better understanding of the sugar and alcohol sector. It shows that the value chain is under national control, unlike most other chains in which Brazil participates. Lastly, the article highlights the most recent innovations in the sector, which reflect a drive to improve competitiveness.
Brazilian municipalities: Agglomeration economies and development levels in 1997 and 2007
This article sets out to analyse the relation between agglomeration economies —both the Marshall-Arrow-Romer type (economies of specialization) and the Jacobs-Porter type (economies of diversification)— and the unequal development of Brazilian municipalities as estimated by labour productivity (measured by the average wage). To that end, measures of specialization were constructed for 1997 and 2007, and the data were used to test the relation between the industrial specialization and diversification indices and productivity, using finite-mixture regressions to capture the heterogeneity of the data. The results confirm the duality existing between the north-northeast and south-southeast-centre-west regions of Brazil, which has been widely documented in other research. Nonetheless, this duality needs to be analysed further, because some cities do not reflect the general dynamic of their region.
Exports from the Brazilian automotive sector to the southern common market: Trade diversion or cost reduction?
The automotive sector is one of the sectors in which trade between mercosur countries has grown most strongly. This article examines the possibility that trade diversion occurred in that sector during the period 1991-2010, assuming that product costs fell as a result of market expansion. The analysis is based on the concepts of “cost reduction” and “trade suppression” coined by Corden (1972), which capture the effects of economies of scale. Indices of regional orientation and revealed comparative advantages are used in combination to assess whether the trade bloc is evolving in line with comparative advantages. The results suggest efficiency gains for automotive-sector products, exports of which from Brazil to mercosur grew more vigorously because the expanded and relatively protected market made it possible to exploit the economies of scale that are characteristic of the automotive industry.
Agricultural productivity: Closing the gap between Brazil and the United States
A comparative analysis of productivity in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries
This article analyses productivity trends in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries between 1995 and 2009, a period in which international competition intensified sharply. A total of 14 manufacturing industries are considered, using two methods based on: (i) the Leontief (1951) model to measure the consumption of intermediate goods used in production; and (ii) the analysis of total factor productivity (tfp). The studies performed show that manufacturing trends have diverged in the two countries. In Mexico, an increased need for imported goods and services was offset by a reduction in domestic goods and service requirements, and an increase in the tfp of production. In the case of Brazil, the fact that manufactured goods markets are more isolated from foreign trade seems to have contributed to a weak productivity performance.
Structural changes in Brazilian industry (1995-2009)
This article analyses the structural changes that took place in Brazilian industry between 1995 and 2009, by considering their intersectoral relations, through input-output analysis using the structural decomposition method and the calculation of linkage indices. The results show that the expansion of final demand plays a key role in industry growth in terms of employment, value added and gross production value. Natural-resource-intensive industry has grown particularly strongly. Another finding is that intersectoral demand has weakened, particularly in scale-intensive sectors that use differentiated technology.
The determinants of foreign direct investment in Brazil: Empirical analysis for 2001-2013: Eduarda Martins Correa da Silveira, Jorge Augusto Dias Samsonescu and Divanildo Triches
This article aims to analyse the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Brazil between 2001 and 2013. It uses a vector error correction (VEC) model to analyse both the long-term function and the impulse-response function. The results show that levels of economic activity, wages and productivity are positively related to FDI inflows, which means that investors pursue market-seeking and efficiency-seeking strategies when targeting the Brazilian market. Although less important, the stability of the national economy and the exchange rate also proved statistically significant in explaining FDI inflows.
Technical progress in GDP production and CO2 emissions in Brazil: 1970-2012
In this study, technical progress is analysed in terms of its influence on the mix of inputs of labour, capital and energy that go into the production of gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results of this analysis show that the Brazilian economy exhibited a Marx-biased pattern of technical progress during the period under study. Within the framework of this overall pattern, however, three different phases of technical progress in Brazil can be identified. Between 1970 and 1980, a Marx-biased pattern was observed, followed by the stagnation of technical progress between 1980 and 2003. In the years from 2003 to 2012, the pattern of technical change was Harrod-neutral.
Economic growth and income concentration and their effects on poverty in Brazil
We use panel data for Brazilian states from 1995 to 2009 to analyse the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty change in Brazil, seeking to evaluate the Bourguignon (2003) hypothesis that the more unequal a country is, the less effective economic growth will be at reducing poverty. To this end, we estimate poverty elasticities relative to income and inequality, specifying two dynamic econometric models estimated via the generalized method of moments (GMM) system developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). The model-estimated results prompt the conclusion that the income growth effect on poverty reduction is smaller when the initial development level is low. The same is found when the initial inequality level is high. Therefore, regions with a low initial development level, high initial inequality or both present less favourable conditions for reducing poverty through income growth.
Spatial distribution of the Brazilian national system of innovation: An analysis for the 2000s
Regional inequality is an intrinsic characteristic of economic underdevelopment. Some structuralists have attributed this feature to the unequal distribution of the benefits of technical progress among subnational regions. This process is thought to be related to the spatial distribution of the components of the national innovation system, which is such that the available opportunities for taking advantage of the benefits of technical progress differ from one region in Brazil to the next. This study examines the distribution of science, technology and innovation assets among different Brazilian microregions in the years from 2000 to 2010. Its findings indicate that the territorial scope of the national innovation system expanded during the period under study to encompass a larger number of microregions and thus has come to exhibit a greater degree of spatial continuity. This process occurred in parallel with a trend towards a greater regional deconcentration of income in the country.
The great divide: Economic complexity and development paths in Brazil and the Republic of Korea
This paper uses the product space methodology to gain new perspectives on the relationship between economic complexity and economic development, illustrated by case studies of Brazil and the Republic of Korea. It takes import data as an indicator of revealed comparative disadvantage to highlight the relevance of the local market. Product space networks for each decade between 1960 and 2000 are then presented, revealing the significant changes in each country’s position in the international division of labour. Lastly, a structural development index is used to measure economic development in each country. The revealed comparative advantage and disadvantage indices indicate that while both countries had similar levels of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the early 1960s, the Republic of Korea saw faster growth than Brazil thanks to its early specialization in more complex, technology-intensive goods.
Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: A New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations, and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end, the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version, using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that, when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight, inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component. Keywords
Productivity differencesin Brazilian manufacturing firms, by industrial sector
This article attempts to explain how the innovation process is determined by factors external to the firm, whose productivity is calculated and analysed in terms of systemic innovation factors. To that end, it describes the internal innovation capabilities of firms, which explain variations in their productivity across sectors. The productivity of manufacturing firms is constructed using the Abramovitz residual method (social accounting), referred to as total factor productivity (tfp), or the Solow residual. Nonetheless, a number of theoretical problems are avoided, such as the effect of scale, aggregation and the heterogeneity of the factors considered in the model. The tfp of Brazilian manufacturing firms is explained by their internal capabilities and by product innovation in the sector to which they belong, which shows that innovation depends on institutions located within the industry.
Regional integration and export diversification in MERCOSUR: The case of Argentina and Brazil
This article analyses the effects of Argentina’s trade with its MERCOSUR partners in two key periods: 1997/1998 and 2005/2006 —before and after the crises suffered by the economies of this trade zone. The impact of trade on the regionalization of exports and imports was measured by the Regional Orientation Index, which was used by Yeats in his study of these countries for an earlier time period. Our conclusions show that the results obtained by Yeats are inconsistent with the later reality in Argentina and Brazil, since MERCOSUR enabled them to develop learning processes and grow their trade with countries outside the bloc. This positive impact was mainly felt in Brazil, however, and less in the other partners, particularly Uruguay and Paraguay —owing to the underlying asymmetries between these economies. As a result, the largest MERCOSUR country has been the main beneficiary of integration thus far.
The footwear industry in Vale do Sinos (Brazil): Competitive adjustment in a labour-intensive sector
This article analyses the production relocation strategies deployed by firms in the Vale do Sinos footwear cluster in Rio Grande do Sul, in response to competitive pressures from other parts of the world, mainly Asia. The hypothesis proposed here is that, as the sector competes mainly in terms of product price, the factors that most directly influence that variable —such as wages, the exchange rate and tax and financial incentives— have affected the industry’s spatial distribution. The study’s main conclusions are that, since 1990, footwear production has been migrating to other parts of Brazil and firms have been seeking other sources of competitiveness.
Development banks in the financial-liberalization era: The case of BNDES in Brazil
This article considers the potential repercussions of financial liberalization on the role played by development banks, particularly the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), as the main source of funding for Brazil’s economic development process. Although liberalization can foster financial development, the latter tends to respond incompletely to the needs of economic development in less developed countries, such as Brazil. Analysis of the Brazilian case seems to confirm this thesis and shows that BNDES not only preserved but actually expanded its position on the domestic market in 1990-2006, despite the financial-liberalization policy that was implemented in that period.
The performance of Chinese and Brazilian exports to Latin America, 1994-2009
This article analyses the structure of Brazilian and Chinese exports to Latin American markets, for the purpose of evaluating the repercussions of China’s emergence as a global power and major trading partner of the countries of the region. An estimation of several international trade and competitiveness indicators shows that Chinese exports, particularly manufactured goods, are displacing Brazilian products on the regional market; and this poses a potential threat to Brazil.
Technology, trade and skills in Brazil: Evidence from micro data
Brazil was characterized by a rapid process of trade liberalization in the 1990s, resulting in a dramatic increase in the volumes of exports and imports since the year 2000. Over the same period, the relative demand for skilled labour has increased substantially. To investigate whether these two simultaneous phenomena are linked is the purpose of this paper. More particularly, this study focuses on the possible impact of domestic technology, capital complementarity and trade openness on the relative demand for skilled labour in Brazilian manufacturing firms, using a unique panel database of Brazilian manufacturing firms over the period from 1997 to 2005. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that technology played a role in determining the skill upgrading of Brazilian manufacturing firms. Indeed, the estimations show that domestic technology and capital formation are complements for skilled workers and that imported capital goods clearly act as a skill-enhancing component of trade.
The importance of the manufacturing sector for Brazilian economic development
This article, based on Kaldor’s model of the stages of development, concludes that, despite having modernized thanks to the economic liberalization process, the evolution of Brazil’s industrial structure has increased the share of low-technology goods in the production matrix. The trend appreciation of the real in the initial phase of economic liberalization was positive for modernizing Brazil’s technology stock; but its continuation in recent years, when there has been ample international liquidity for emerging countries, threatens the development of the national manufacturing sector. This sector could suffer a technological setback, which, according to the principle of circular cumulative causation, diminishes its capacity to forge links with other sectors of activity, and accentuates the economy’s long-term external dependency.
Industrial location and sectoral linkages: the case of the Brazilian automotive industry
Brazil, 1981-2013: The effects of economic growth and income inequality on poverty
This study analyses the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty in Brazil in the years from 1981 to 2013. A dynamic panel model was used, estimated by the twostep generalized method-of-moments system developed by Blundell-Bond (1998), in order to analyse three scenarios: the first corresponds to the entire period covered by this study (i.e. 1981-2013); the second encompasses the years from 1981 to 1994 (the period leading up to the Real Plan); and the third is the period from 1995 to 2013 (the years following the implementation of the Real Plan). The results indicate that economic growth policies that promote an increase in income in conjunction with a reduction in income disparities are more effective in combating poverty in Brazil than those that focus only on raising mean income levels. The findings also point to the existence of a pro-poor form of growth in the period following the Real Plan.