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- Volume 2005, Issue 87, 2005
CEPAL Review - Volume 2005, Issue 87, 2005
Volume 2005, Issue 87, 2005
Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of reforms and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista De La Cepal), each tri-annual issue brings you approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.
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Policies for economic diversification
Author: Dani RodrikThis article begins by showing that not all developing countries concentrate their exports in products which make intensive use of natural resources or cheap labour, and that those which also export some products typical of more developed countries tend to grow faster, apparently independently of their human capital endowment or the quality of their institutions. For this purpose, an index is used which measures the degree to which each country displays this type of export mix. This is an idiosyncratic phenomenon which seems to be linked with the capacity to undertake the production and export of new products. There is therefore a place for incentive policies, accompanied by the ability of the government to recognize failed attempts and to stop subsidizing them. Because of the idiosyncratic nature of the phenomenon, it is not possible to propose universal solutions, but the author does set out ten principles to be borne in mind in policy design in each country.
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Towards an efficient innovation policy in Latin America
Authors: William F. Maloney and Guillermo PerryInnovation has emerged as a central theme on the growth agenda of Latin America. This paper examines four issues. First, how can we know if Latin America really has an “innovation problem” that is behind its weak total factor productivity performance? Second, what do we mean by innovation and what are dimensions of it in which the region exhibits weaknesses? Third, what does recent experience and literature suggest for principles and broad policy measures to foment innovation? Fourth, are there any linkages between these weaknesses and equity? Since even in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) there is little consensus on the specific policies that governments should implement, and even less on their suitability to developing countries, this paper attempts to organize thinking around some basic principles and offer suggestive experience rather than specific policy advice.
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Reassessing social policies in Latin America: Growth, middle classes and social rights
Author: Andrés SolimanoThis paper examines the analytical bases of social policy in Latin America, as illustrated by empirical data. It finds that the dominant approach is based on the following premises: (i) economic growth is the primary mechanism for poverty reduction; (ii) social expenditure should focus mainly on the ?really poor?; (iii) private-sector provision of education, health and pension services should be encouraged; and (iv) emergency social protection programmes are needed to deal with macroeconomic crises and natural disasters. The article then identifies areas in which social policy can be renewed, such as income distribution, attention to the middle class as a target of social policies, possibilities for the poor and middle classes to accumulate capital, and the economic and social rights of the population.
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Health-care financing and equity: Public insurance in Chile
Author: Rafael Urriola UrbinaThis article sets out to examine the sources of health-care financing and their use, drawing on the health system accounts available in Chile; the role of public spending at the present time and its effect in reducing inequities in the Chilean system; and the distribution of health-care provision by income level in the population. Solidarity and equity seem to be peculiar to the public sector, although even there equity is found only in certain types of health-care provision. The article then goes on to analyse three public insurance (National Health Fund) programmes designed to reduce inequities in health-care access, which have acted as a test bed for the current Health Reform Plan in Chile; it reviews the central component of that reform, the Plan for Universal Access with Explicit Guarantees (Plan AUGE), which was approved in 2005 and has begun to be gradually applied; and it describes aspects of financial equity.
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Tax reform for human development in Central America
Authors: Manuel R. Agosin, Alberto Barreix, Juan Carlos Gómez Sabaíni and Roberto MachadoTax revenue in Central American countries accounts for just 13.5% of their gross domestic product; and the resultant resource shortage means insufficient and low-quality public expenditure, and chronic fiscal deficits financed through borrowing. In 2003 interest payments absorbed an average of 18% of the subregion’s total tax revenue. In these open economies, whose enterprises need to become more internationally competitive, fiscal policy is crucial both for financing the necessary physical and social infrastructure and for combating the poverty that still afflicts roughly 40% of the population. The economic development of Central America therefore needs second-generation reforms to modernize its tax systems, in order to increase revenue by about four percentage points of GDP.
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Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America
Author: Igor PaunovicAn analysis of public debt indicators in eight northern countries of Latin America reveals that Nicaragua and Honduras are the most vulnerable; Panama, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and El Salvador are moderately vulnerable; while Mexico and Guatemala have debt levels that are not considered dangerous. Nonetheless, a subsequent review of four indicators of fiscal sustainability shows only Mexico to be well positioned under all criteria; Costa Rica and Guatemala display a number of minor problems, while various special circumstances explain the favourable results obtained by Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic; and El Salvador, Honduras and Panama will be unable to sustain their 2004 fiscal policy for very long. Lastly, analysis of the sensitivity of the debt to a “sudden stop” in foreign capital inflows suggests the need for a cautious attitude towards the future trend of the public debt in the face of rising international interest rates.
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The accumulation process and agrofood networks in Latin America
Authors: Roberto Bisang and Graciela E. GutmanWithin the context of the evolution of world markets and new models of trade openness, several agrofood product lines in MERCOSUR countries have shown strong dynamism in recent decades, becoming focal points (axes) of accumulation and economic growth. The expansion of production and the higher levels of competitiveness achieved have been based on the organization of these product lines in networks or complexes; on the adoption of technology packages from abroad with minimal local adaptation, as part of the globalization of new paradigms; on the emergence or consolidation of groups of big firms in the main stages of these networks, and on clearly defined forms of insertion in external markets. This article argues that the transnationalization of relevant segments and markets of these complexes affects the possibilities of local or regional development, in particular, the generation of locally dense and diversified production networks with equitable distribution of rents, income and profits.
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The technical skills of information technology workers in Argentina
Authors: José Borello, Analía Erbes, Verónica Robert, Sonia Roitter and Gabriel YoguelThis article makes an assessment of Argentina’s human resource skills in the field of information technology (IT). In various of the country’s government, business and academic domains the quality and potential of domestic human resources in this area is taken for granted- a belief based on the country’s rich, yet contradictory IT history, but not founded on an analysis of the corresponding skills. This study aims to develop and apply a methodology to evaluate the skills of IT workers and highlight their problems and potentials, using the results of an electronic survey. The current features and heterogeneity of those human resources are interpreted in the light of the progress and setbacks experienced by the activity during the course of its evolution.
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Regional integration and the labour market: The Brazilian case
Author: Marta Reis CastilhoBrazil is currently engaged in various trade negotiations. One of the aspects that must be taken into account when appraising these negotiations is their impact on employment. This article estimates the effects on employment of two of the main trade agreements in which Brazil may participate, based on the labour content of its trade, by the workers? skill level. Brazil is a net exporter of labour, especially less skilled labour. Our results show that, in the three alternatives considered here—the agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union; the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), and the entry in force of both of them? nearly 230,000 jobs would be generated, representing an increase of 0.4% in Brazilian total employment. In aggregate terms, FTAA is the option which would generate more jobs. The workers benefiting most from these agreements would be those with the lowest levels of skills.
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Central bank independence and its relationship to inflation
Author: Helder Ferreira de MendonçaThis paper builds on earlier studies of central bank independence (CBI), making a comparison of the rankings of central banks for 15 countries through three different indices. The analysis reveals that there is no shared concept of CBI and that the indices are a measure of the inflation bias. The Brazilian case is used as an example, with the objective of examining the impact on inflation of an increase in independence over time, as measured by Cukierman’s index. The findings indicate that CBI is a consequence of the conduct of monetary policy and that it is not an adequate framework for developing credibility.
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