- Home
- A-Z Publications
- CEPAL Review
- Previous Issues
- Volume 2017, Issue 123, 2017
CEPAL Review - Volume 2017, Issue 123, 2017
Volume 2017, Issue 123, 2017
-
-
Effects of internal migration on the human settlements system in Latin America and the Caribbean
Author: Jorge Rodríguez VignoliThe gradual abatement of rural-urban migration in Latin America and the Caribbean is leading to growing prevalence of migration between cities, a phenomenon about which little theory or empirical studies have been developed in the region. Accordingly, this work uses census microdata –the only source available in the region for estimating migration between cities– from a dozen countries to: (i) estimate the recent evolution of this migration using categories based on cities’ population size (including a residual category that groups municipalities without cities); (ii) estimate the effect of this migration on the composition by sex, age, and education level of these categories of city, and (iii) evaluate in a general and preliminary manner the two-way links between the socioeconomic conditions of cities and the magnitude and effects of migration.
-
-
-
Economic growth and income concentration and their effects on poverty in Brazil
Authors: Jair Andrade Araujo, Emerson Marinho and Guaracyane Lima CampêloWe use panel data for Brazilian states from 1995 to 2009 to analyse the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty change in Brazil, seeking to evaluate the Bourguignon (2003) hypothesis that the more unequal a country is, the less effective economic growth will be at reducing poverty. To this end, we estimate poverty elasticities relative to income and inequality, specifying two dynamic econometric models estimated via the generalized method of moments (GMM) system developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). The model-estimated results prompt the conclusion that the income growth effect on poverty reduction is smaller when the initial development level is low. The same is found when the initial inequality level is high. Therefore, regions with a low initial development level, high initial inequality or both present less favourable conditions for reducing poverty through income growth.
-
-
-
Personal income tax and income inequality in Ecuador between 2007 and 2011
Author: Liliana CanoThis paper uses data from individual income tax returns to explore the redistributive effect of personal income tax in Ecuador between 2007 and 2011. Following common practice in tax incidence analysis, we first compute indices of income tax progressivity and redistributive impact. We then mobilize microsimulation techniques to simulate the redistributive effect of personal income tax under different taxable income scenarios. Finally, we calculate the effective tax rates paid by top income groups and derive a range of optimal income taxes for the top 1% income group. We obtain two main empirical results. First, although Ecuador’s personal income tax is highly progressive, its redistributive capacity is low: our findings show that high-income individuals are more likely to reduce their taxable income through legal tax deductions than low-income individuals. Second, while the effective tax rates paid by high-income individuals are relatively low, optimal tax rates could be as high as 63%.
-
-
-
Analysis of formal-informal transitions in the Ecuadorian labour market
Author: Adriana Patricia Vega NúñezThe study analyses the transitions between the formal and informal labour markets using longitudinal data for Ecuador. First, we use transition matrices to characterize the short-run dynamics among the different labour statuses in Ecuador. Next, multinomial logit models are used to identify the factors that determine the probability of remaining in or moving across the formal and informal sectors. Education level, years of experience and wage differentials by sector have a significant effect on worker transitions, showing that benefits and costs vary depending on the individual’s preferences and skills.
-
-
-
The impact on wages, employment and exports of backward linkages between multinational companies and SMEs
Policymakers often look for ways to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper estimates the impact of a programme, Costa Rica Provee, that seeks to increase backward linkages between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and MNCs in Costa Rica. The impacts were measured by reference to real average wages, employment demand and the probability of exporting, using a combination of fixed effects and propensity score matching with panel data on treated and untreated firms for 2001-2011. Programme beneficiaries evinced higher average wages, labour demand and export probabilities than untreated firms, with dose and duration also having a major influence.
-
-
-
Job satisfaction in Chile: geographic determinants and differences
Author: Luz María FerradaLogit, binary and multinomial models are used in this study to determine the impact of objective and perceived working conditions on workers’ job satisfaction. Possible differences between job satisfaction in the Metropolitan Region and in other areas of Chile are also explored. The data used in this analysis are drawn from the first National Survey on Employment, Work, Health and Quality of Life of Workers in Chile (ENETS). Wage levels were found to have a positive impact across the board, while residence in an area other than the Metropolitan Region also had a significantly positive effect. These results were corroborated using matching techniques. The finding that subjective perceptions have a great deal of explanatory power and that their impact outweighs the influence of objective conditions may be of interest in the areas of both public policy and business administration.
-
-
-
Currency carry trade and the cost of international reserves in Mexico
Authors: Carlos A. Rozo and Norma MaldonadoNational strategies aimed at boosting economic growth following the global financial crisis have spawned monetary imbalances between industrial and emerging economies. By implementing ultra-expansionary monetary policies, the industrial economies drive down interest rates, while the emerging economies tighten their monetary policies by raising rates, thus generating a burgeoning foreign-currency carry trade. Vulnerability is caused by the sudden reversal of such capital flows or the high cost of insuring against this by accumulating reserves. This paper estimates that the cost of reserve accumulation between 2008 and 2014 averaged 1.83% of GDP, so the free capital mobility espoused by the Mexican authorities makes it very costly to play by the rules of financial globalization.
-
-
-
The mining canon and the budget political cycle in Peru’s district municipalities, 2002-2011
Authors: Carol Pebe, Norally Radas and Javier TorresThis study seeks to determine whether access to a larger volume of funds from the mining canon affects the level of capital spending by district mayors in election years. The effect of Peru’s electoral cycles on district public investment (from 2002 to 2011), and how this relates to the mining canon, is analysed in terms of the budget political cycle, using a fixed-effects panel model. The results show that the mining canon has a differential effect in the 20% of districts that receive the largest amounts; but, in general, there is no clear cyclicality between capital expenditure in these municipalities and election years.
-
-
-
A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999-2015
Authors: André Nassif, Carmen Feijó and Eliane AraújoThe “optimum” long-run real exchange rate is the rate that will efficiently channel production resources into industries that generate and diffuse productivity gains in the economy as a whole and that will thus tend to speed up and sustain the economic development process. Rather than employing conventional models, a structuralist- Keynesian model is used to demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that the factors influencing the path of the long-run real exchange rate and the divergence of the observed real exchange rate from the “optimum” real exchange rate in terms of economic development are accounted for by both structural and short-term macroeconomic policy variables. Econometric estimates for 1999-2015 indicate that, following a prolonged period, beginning in late 2005, during which the Brazilian currency appreciated quite steeply, the real exchange rate in Brazil reached its “optimum” level in mid-January 2016.
-
-
-
Impact of the Guaranteed Health Plan with a single community premium on the demand for private health insurance in Chile
Authors: Eduardo Bitran, Fabián Duarte, Dalila Fernandes and Marcelo VillenaIn 2012, a Guaranteed Health Plan for the private health system was submitted to the Chilean National Congress, with the aim of offering a standardized flat-rate health-care plan. This paper evaluates the impact that the introduction of this plan would have on the demand for health insurance. The results suggest that the private insurance portfolio would shrink by 12.39%, which means that around 400,000 people would switch to the public system, thereby exacerbating the adverse-selection problem faced by the system and imposing an additional fiscal burden of US$ 200 million per year.
-
Volumes & issues
-
Volume 2023
-
Volume 2022
-
Volume 2021
-
Volume 2020
-
Volume 2019
-
Volume 2018
-
Volume 2017
-
Volume 2016
-
Volume 2015
-
Volume 2014
-
Volume 2013
-
Volume 2012
-
Volume 2011
-
Volume 2010
-
Volume 2009
-
Volume 2008
-
Volume 2007
-
Volume 2006
-
Volume 2005
-
Volume 2004
-
Volume 2003
-
Volume 2002
-
Volume 2001
-
Volume 2000
-
Volume 1999
-
Volume 1998
-
Volume 1997
-
Volume 1996
-
Volume 1995
-
Volume 1994
-
Volume 1993
-
Volume 1992
-
Volume 1991
-
Volume 1990
-
Volume 1989
-
Volume 1988
-
Volume 1987
-
Volume 1986
-
Volume 1985
-
Volume 1984
-
Volume 1983
-
Volume 1982
-
Volume 1981
-
Volume 1980
-
Volume 1979
-
Volume 1978
-
Volume 1977
-
Volume 1976