CEPAL Review - Volume 2020, Issue 130, 2020

The debate about what kind of impact current technological changes will have on employment is marked by a high degree of uncertainty, as is clear from the existence of widely differing estimates of the possible extent of job destruction. This article looks at various contributions to the analysis of how labour markets may be restructured and different projections of job destruction, job creation and changes in the nature of employment. A comparative consideration of the available evidence for developed countries and for the Latin American and Caribbean region based on a conditioned contextual approach leads to the conclusion that the impact of new technologies in the region will be shaped in part by the structure of production and of the labour market, the development of infrastructure and the relevant capacities of different sorts. Challenges in two areas of key importance in realizing the potential of new technologies to contribute to a sustainable development process and greater equality are then examined: workforce skills and competencies, and the regulation of labour relations.

This paper compares medicine prices in the six largest economies in Latin America. Using a panel-based econometric model with country fixed effects and controlling for variables related to the medicines’ characteristics, the comparison covers 19,741 units sold during the 2010–2015 period and has been carried out at the wholesale and retail levels and by type of medication (innovative, branded generic and generic). At the aggregate level and at the retail pharmacy level, the classification from least to most expensive is: Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Brazil. In innovative medicines, Argentina and Peru have the lowest prices. In branded generic medicines, Mexico and Argentina have the lowest prices, while for pure generics, Peru and Chile appear to be the least expensive. The classification does not change substantially if ex-factory prices are compared.

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the international position of national innovation systems. Data on patents, scientific articles, population and gross domestic product (GDP) for all countries for 1974, 1982, 1990, 1998, 2006, 2012 and 2014 form the basis for the application of this country clustering methodology. In addition to establishing a threshold between clusters (the core-periphery divide interpreted on the basis of science and technology data), it is possible to capture movement in thresholds, driven by technological revolutions in core countries. The result is a dynamic framework, which makes it increasingly difficult to implement convergence processes.

Corruption has reached alarming levels in recent years and now costs the equivalent of about 5% of global output annually. Given this backdrop, this study sets out to investigate how corruption and the production structure affects the socioeconomic development of developing countries, applying a dynamic panel data procedure to the period 2002-2014. The main findings include the fact that the relation between corruption and development is non-linear. The study of the different dimensions of development also needs to encompass both economic and social perspectives. In general, there are signs that a more sophisticated production structure distorts the effects of corruption control by strengthening the influence of corruption itself on socioeconomic development.

This paper analyses the effects of changes in maritime container transport, unemployment levels, competitiveness and trade agreements on the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries on the west coast of Latin America. A sample of 23 ports along the west coast is used, with 8 observations over the period from 2008 to 2015. Panel data estimations are performed for basic fixed effects, (robust) fixed effects and panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) models, with the characteristics of the sample. In this research, the estimation method that is found to produce the best results is the PCSE model. The results support the use of containerized cargo volume as a significant variable of economic growth; they also highlight the need to invest in port infrastructure and to continue to implement outward-looking trade policy instruments.

The aim of this paper is to quantify the productive diversity of the manufacturing industry in the provinces of Argentina, to analyse trends in productive diversity between 1996 and 2012, and to identify the main related economic factors. A diversity index is calculated based on official data on total registered wage employment from the Dynamic Employment Analysis Database (BADE). An analysis is then performed of trends in diversity in the different provinces over the period. Lastly, an econometric panel data model is estimated to identify the main related economic factors. The industrial diversity of the provinces is negatively associated with withdrawal of firms and positively associated with level of development, region size, higher levels of urbanization and greater territorial capabilities. The results of this study can be used to design policies to promote regional diversity.

This article aims to analyse the composition of the Brazilian middle class and its main behaviours and expectations. Combining a quantitative analysis based on the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) and a qualitative survey carried out among households belonging to the middle class, it reveals the following characteristics. First, the Brazilian middle class is heterogeneous and a substantial part of it remains vulnerable to poverty. Second, the middle class exhibits consumer behaviour largely sustained by credit. Third, in terms of expectations, the Brazilian middle class prioritizes health, education, security and housing and is particularly critical of the quality of public services, all the more so as it faces a high tax burden. While the upper middle class is able to bypass these failures via private services, the most vulnerable elements of the middle class remain very dependent on these low-quality public services.

The widespread adoption of information and communications technology (ICT) has increased research on the link between such technology and economic growth. The use of ICT has a significant impact on growth, but studies tend to ignore the determinants of this use and the differing conditions across the companies, industries and countries that adopt them. In this study, we analyse the determinants of the differentiated impact of ICT on labour productivity growth in Mexican companies, using microdata from the ICT survey of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and based on factor analysis and artificial neural network techniques. The results indicate that the strength of companies’ links with the external sector and their capacities (educational level of staff and organizational maturity) determine the impact of ICT on labour productivity in Mexico.

Following on from recent literature on the same subject, this paper analyses the impact of public debt on economic growth in Mexico between 1994 and 2016, against a global macroeconomic backdrop of sharp rises in public sector debt indicators, owing to expansionary fiscal strategies adopted after the 2007–2008 crisis. The main objectives of this study are to determine whether the relationship between these two variables has followed a non-linear path in the form of an inverted “U”, and to find the threshold beyond which increases in debt generate marginal decreases in growth. Using a dynamic model, a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship is demonstrated, and the threshold in the debt-to-GDP ratio is found to be 27%.

This article seeks to identify and analyse the pattern of specialization in the export structure of North-East Brazil in 2003–2014, following the expansion of international trade with the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa). The Aliceweb and Trademap databases are used to calculate the relevant indicators, namely the specialization coefficient, revealed comparative advantage, contribution to the trade balance, and degree of intraindustry trade. Trade with the BRICS countries led to exports being reorganized by specialization groups, thereby confirming a historical trend of comparative advantage in exports in the following product categories: food, tobacco and beverages; paper and pulp; chemicals; plastics and rubber; textiles; footwear and leather. Trade with the BRICS countries did not promote diversification or increase the technology content of the North-East’s export structure.