CEPAL Review - Volume 2024, Issue 144, 2024

This article is a brief tribute to the life and work of Maria da Conceição Tavares, a leading heterodox economist and central figure in Latin American economic thought. Through a chronological narrative, it analyses her theoretical contribution from her time at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to her period as a professor at the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), as well as her involvement in Brazilian politics. The article highlights her role as a pioneer of Latin American structuralism, her critical analysis of the import substitution model and her ability to link quantitative approaches with historical and social perspectives. Tavares is remembered not only for her academic contributions, but also for her political activism and her commitment to social justice. She is considered a key figure in improving understanding of the region’s current challenges in inclusive development.

This article is focused on the hypotheses of Raúl Prebisch and Hans Singer regarding the centre-periphery model, which is the cornerstone of development theory for peripheral countries. The article emphasizes aspects of theory and policy related to the political economy of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) from the early 1950s to the present. It shows how, since the 1980s, ECLAC economists —influenced by evolving neo-Schumpeterian models and equipped with sophisticated microeconomic instruments— have undertaken a critical appraisal of the import substitution model in Latin America while retaining Raúl Prebisch’s original hypotheses on the external forces restricting the economic development of peripheral countries.

This article analyses Chile’s monetary policy following the 1973 military coup and the failed attempt at nominal stabilization during the dictatorship. Two causes of persistent inflation are identified: (i) the narrowing of the fiscal deficit in 1974 was insufficient to curb high monetary issuance and inflation, thus perpetuating the inflation needed to finance the fiscal deficits; and (ii) the perception by economic agents that fiscal needs, financed through seigniorage, would not slow the growth of the monetary base and inflation. This perception kept inflation levels high following the coup. For the shock therapy to succeed, a greater reduction of the fiscal deficit and a perception that these lower deficits would be permanent would have been necessary. In the absence of a credible deficit reduction policy, inflation did not stabilize until the late 1970s.

We analyse gross non-financial private sector capital outflows from six large Latin American economies over the past three decades. While considerable attention has recently been devoted to corporate capital inflows into emerging markets, the accumulation of foreign assets by the non-financial private sector in these countries has been overlooked. The omission is surprising, given that residents’ outflows contribute considerably to the financial account balance and thus to the external financial vulnerability of the region. Moreover, although there are considerable differences between countries, we find that, in general, these outflows are (i) highly correlated with the global financial cycle; (ii) positively related to capital inflows and the current account balance, implying that they grow with higher foreign exchange availability; and (iii) seemingly unaffected by changes in domestic asset risk.

This article analyses the weakening of the developmental State and the consolidation of neoliberalism in Brazil that took place through the reconfiguration of interests between social classes and groups, as part of the process of the return to democracy and the struggle waged to install a less exclusionary Constitution. It argues that, unlike in central countries, where the transition to neoliberalism had to do above all with containing the rise of the working class, in Brazil, it took the form of an anti-nationalization vision that gained strength from the late 1970s onward and was driven mainly by a repositioning and reconfiguration of power between different factions within the dominant class, amid growing and forceful external pressure to adopt neoliberal formulas.

In this article the authors seek to determine whether global financial shifts are more costly for emerging economies that have adopted an inflation-targeting system than they are for countries that have no such system in place. The countries’ exchange rates and the volatility of those rates are used as yardsticks for measuring these costs. The authors’ findings indicate that, if a country adopts an inflation-targeting system and witnesses an increase in foreign capital inflows, it may experience a greater currency depreciation and less exchange rate volatility than a country without such a system. When the world interest rate rises, however, emerging economies with inflation-targeting systems experience greater exchange rate volatility than their counterparts that have no targeting system. In addition, the adoption of an inflation-targeting system by an emerging economy may result in a reduction in the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices.

Using an ordered probit model estimation and quarterly data for the 2018–2020 period from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD), this study sets out to analyse the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) health crisis on the supply of working hours by men and women in Brazil. The results suggest that the pandemic reduced the probability of men and women supplying larger numbers of working hours, and that women were most affected. In addition, having small children reduced the probability of mothers supplying larger numbers of working hours, while for men that probability increased.

This article analyses the volume and structure of female employment linked to Brazil’s foreign trade with its different partners in 2019, on the basis of estimations made from the Brazilian input-output table and on trade and employment statistics. Jobs linked to exports account for a small share of total employment in Brazil, especially in the case of women. Comparing the number of jobs generated by exports with those threatened by imports, the balance is smaller for women than for men. In addition, the quality of export-related employment is below the economy-wide average, for both women and men alike. Nonetheless, trade-related jobs in Brazil vary across trading partners, reflecting the country’s heterogeneous pattern of trade specialization.

Currently, smart city measurements and rankings often overlook key factors, such as size, population and economic tradition, leading to unrealistic goals being set when cities with different histories are compared with unattainable benchmarks. The present article argues that considering these factors can help city planners to achieve more efficient, incremental improvements. Focusing on mobility, this study compares a mid-sized city in southern Brazil with Aarhus, Denmark, a city of similar size and economic tradition. A diagnostic tool was developed to assess the urban mobility strengths and weaknesses of the Brazilian city through benchmarking. The results indicated that the city’s urban mobility could be improved by implementing simple solutions: (i) enhancing the attractiveness of the public transport system; (ii) promoting bicycle use; and (iii) improving access to real-time information.

Sino-Brazilian cooperation has advanced rapidly in the twenty-first century. Although its successes have made it a model for South-South cooperation, the relationship also faces many challenges. This study focuses on the trade imbalance and the resultant risk of “deindustrialization” for Brazil, proposing that fostering technology transfer in the context of investments and situating Chinese companies in Brazil are two ways to mitigate its negative effects. However, the main response to these challenges is well-defined, comprehensive development planning by the Brazilian State with a strong commitment to reindustrialization. Since South-South cooperation is often more complex than North-South or North-North cooperation and few relevant academic studies exist on cooperation between developing countries, this article also advocates for a rational and holistic vision of Sino-Brazilian cooperation.

In order to facilitate the submission, consideration and publication of articles, the editorial board of the CEPAL Review has prepared the following information and suggestions to serve as a guide for future contributors.