Transnational Corporations - Volume 29, Issue 2, 2022

This paper presents an empirical analysis on the extent to which a country’s welfare spending influences foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions, particularly as they relate to relocations. We argue, and subsequently empirically test, that higher welfare spending by governments attracts foreign investment. Moreover, multinational enterprises (MNEs) located in high welfare spending countries have a lower likelihood of relocating to foreign markets compared with MNEs in countries with lower levels of welfare spending. Using data for MNEs in 27 OECD countries, our results show that MNE location decisions are positively related to welfare spending. These findings appear to be more pronounced for MNEs operating in high-tech rather than in low-tech manufacturing industries. Our results suggest that high welfare spending does deter FDI in the case of host developing economies, but that these effects are small. We suggest that this is a result of firms being more hesitant to invest in developing countries where they will be expected to contribute to welfare. This suggests that a degree of trust between firms and host country governments is required on institution building and the delivery of welfare. Our results suggest that the conventional wisdom of firms avoiding or relocating away from locations due to the associated additional costs of high welfare spending is questionable, but that firms need to be confident on the efficacy of this welfare expenditure.

This paper analyses the potential impact of the minimum tax envisaged under the OECD Pillar Two on several common corporate tax incentives. It reaches the conclusion that while the impact is expected to be low to moderate for some common incentives, such as participation exemption regimes and accelerated depreciations, it might be significant for direct cuts from the tax bill, which include tax holidays, intellectual property (IP) box regimes and special economic zones (SEZs). Hence, the response by policymakers must be informed by the specific interaction between the corporate tax incentives under their respective systems and the upcoming international standards on the minimum level of taxation.

As climate change, population growth, rising incomes and rapid urbanization increase the demand for food, the world is facing further pressure to enhance food security for all. Investment in agriculture and food systems is not only necessary but also critical. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important source to close the funding gap that developing countries face to increase food production and agricultural productivity. Yet, it poses serious challenges on domestic populations. The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of FDI in agriculture on food security in the host country. The empirical analysis employs a land access index by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to control for differences in land governance. Using data from 56 developing countries over a 16-year period, the empirical analysis finds evidence that FDI in agriculture has an inverse effect on food security in the host country. FDI has a more favourable impact where the land governance system is better. The findings call for an imperative role to governments for tenure reforms by formalization of customary rights to enhance tenure security for a more equitable access to land. It is also essential that good monitoring and impact assessment systems are developed to ensure transparency of the processes associated with agricultural investments.

This paper is based on microdata originating in the first collection of country-by-country reporting (CbCR) – a new reporting tool to be filed by multinational enterprises (MNEs). It analyses the differences between CbCR and other widely used data sources of MNEs and presents the case of MNE activities in Italy. The CbCR dataset is used to understand the global distribution of MNE activities. Results show that foreign activities are mostly concentrated in high-income countries for all economic indicators. In low-income countries, MNEs activity appears to be concentrated in labour-intensive industries. Middle-income countries have a relatively higher importance in terms of tangible assets and employment opportunities than they do in terms of revenues and profits. Investment hubs have a relatively higher share in global MNEs profits than they do in global MNEs tangible assets and employment. The CbCR data can be useful for policymakers to obtain an indication on how a country is positioned in the global value chain (GVC) and its attractiveness for foreign companies.

The OECD agreement in principle on a global minimum corporate income tax – Pillar Two of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting project – is a major step in international tax regulation and coordination. Yet, its consequences for foreign direct investment (FDI) have received limited attention thus far. In the present paper, the authors detail the analytical framework developed to underpin the findings of the World Investment Report 2022: International Tax Reforms and Sustainable Investment. The paper introduces the notion of FDI-level effective tax rate (ETR). Unlike standard ETRs, FDI-level ETRs embed the profit shifting schemes of multinational enterprises (MNEs). They capture not only the taxes paid on income reported in the host country of the foreign investment but also those levied on income shifted to offshore financial centres (OFCs). The effect of Pillar Two on these two components of the tax base determines the increase in the overall tax rate faced by MNEs, which ultimately affects the investment decisions of MNEs. After empirically calibrating ETRs, profit shifting and FDI-level ETRs of more than 200 countries, the authors quantify the effect of Pillar Two on FDI-level ETRs. The results show that after the reform FDI-level ETRs are likely to increase by 2 to 3 percentage points in non-OFCs, which corresponds to an increase in the corporate income tax liability for MNEs between 14 and 20 per cent.