This annual flagship publication seeks to both analyze routinely monitored economic and social variables in the Arab region in a global context as well as address debt sustainability and the macroeconomic implications. Given that the COVID-19 pandemic will have significant repercussions in 2021 and beyond it is crucial to understand how Arab countries are dealing with the economic impact of the virus. The report sets out two scenarios: a baseline scenario projecting that the economy will rebound in the first quarter of 2021; and a pessimistic scenario in which the crisis will persist throughout the first quarter of 2021. However given considerable advancements in research on COVID-19 vaccines an economic rebound should be expected no later than the second quarter of 2021.

The economic and political uncertainty which has characterized the Arab region in the wake of the 2011 transitions and upheaval continues to restrain the region’s prospects for growth job creation and stability. Economic expansion remains stalled with persistently low global oil prices adding a further burden to the regional economy and constraining the growth and fiscal balances of those countries that had been top-performers due to energy exports. While some progress on social indicators such as gender representativeness can be noted countries in and affected by political transition and conflict have regressed on a plethora of socioeconomic indicators. These trends can be noted for the past five years and with this in mind the 2015-16 Survey will utilize recent data in order to take stock of the impact of instability and conflict and address the foregone growth and output and destructive effects of this period. It also draws on recent research of ESCWA regarding migration social developments the impact of conflict women’s empowerment and specific country-level analysis.