تتناول نسخة 2023-2024 من مسح التطورات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية في المنطقة العربية الأوضاع الاقتصادية على الصعيدين الإقليمي والعالمي. وتأثرت مجريات الأمور بشدة بالحرب الدائرة في أوكرانيا، علاوة على استمرار عدم اليقين في المنطقة العربية بسبب الحروب على غزة ولبنان. والتوقعات للاقتصاد الكلي العالمي لعام 2025 إيجابية إلى حد ما، حيث من المتوقع أن يستمر التعافي بعد جائحة كوفيد-19، لا سيما في آسيا. ويحيط غموض شديد بالآفاق المستقبلية للمنطقة العربية، حيث تطغى على المشهد تحديات جسام، تشمل الحروب والصراعات وعدم الاستقرار السياسي والتحديات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية والكوارث الطبيعية. ومن المتوقع أن تشهد السنوات المقبلة تراجعاً بطيئاً في مستويات الفقر في المنطقة العربية عن مستوياتها المرتفعة إبان الجائحة. ولم تذلل العقبات بعد أمام تحقيق المساواة بين الجنسين في المنطقة العربية. في عام 2024، كانت الفجوة بين الجنسين في المنطقة العربية هي الأوسع في العالم، وتتفاوت كثيراً معدلات مشاركة الرجال ومشاركة النساء في القوى العاملة.

The Survey 2018-2019 observes that the Arab region experienced an economic recovery with a growth rate of 2.3% in 2018, up from 1.7% the year before. This recovery was largely attributed to hydrocarbon sector-led growth in the region’s oil-exporting countries, particularly GCC countries. This growth momentum will continue at a modest pace of 2.6% in 2019 and further increase to 3.4% for 2020. Notwithstanding such positive prospect, the region remains linked to geopolitical uncertainties, which are further exacerbated by a number of ongoing intraregional diplomatic rifts and armed conflict. Meanwhile, the Survey 2018-2019 claims that the main challenge facing nowadays the region is its delicate fiscal situation as several Arab countries have already established new energy subsidy systems, aimed at maintaining affordable energy prices against oil price fluctuation. Employing CGE models, the Survey 2018-2019 demonstrates that reducing energy subsidy generates a fiscal space for governments. If the ‘saved’ amounts are totally directed to the reduction of fiscal deficit, fiscal sustainability could be enhanced but economic growth and job creation will be negatively affected. Such simulation result allows policymakers to assess the reform options that promote an inclusive and sustainable development.

This publication focuses on the analysis of the most recent socioeconomic developments in two ways. The first focus aims at demonstrating the analytical observation of routinely monitored economic and social variables of the Arab region in the global context (the monitoring part). The second focus aims at an in-depth analysis on the regional impacts of ongoing fiscal reforms (the thematic part).

In addition to conflicts and related security disruptions in the Arab region, a significant fall in oil prices and their uncertain prospects have become a predominant economic concern, with prices plunging by more than 50 per cent in the second half of 2014. Nevertheless, member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have continued to lead growth in the Arab region. This edition of the Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the Arab Region looks at the continued expansion of the non-oil sector as it maintains GCC economic growth. Lower oil prices have not yet negatively affected the GCC economically, although confidence has dropped with weakening stock markets and real estate transactions. Furthermore, lower oil prices have benefited oil-importing Arab countries by easing their balance-of-payment and fiscal constraints. With conflict and violence in the region, one of the main channels for economic stabilization has been intraregional flows of capital and remittances from the GCC countries.

The Survey of Economic and Social Development in the Arab Region 2012-2013 assesses the most recent economic and social developments of Arab countries, using the data that became available by the 2nd quarter of 2013. The immediate policy challenge for most of Arab countries is to create employment without relying on an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy mix. The Survey finds that several policy options are available for this policy challenge even in this highly uncertain situation surrounding the region’s socioeconomic development. In parallel to the specific policy proposals, the Survey emphasizes the importance of policy dialogue in the area of employment and more constructive regional integration framework on this subject. The revival of regional leverage along this line of reform needs be encouraged to halt the polarization by stabilizing the region’s socioeconomic development paths for all Arab countries.

This book assesses feasible financing strategies for policymakers to follow in pursuance of human development, taking as reference the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their achievement by 2015. These strategies are analyzed in the context of broader concerns of economic development with special reference to nine countries from Africa, Asia and the Middle East; that is, how to make macroeconomic policies support more effectively sustained growth while reducing widespread poverty and inequalities and other human development gaps in low- and middle-income countries, especially in times of global economic crises or external shocks. In this sense, this book adds new evidence regarding the social deficits in these countries and suggests policy options to overcome them.

The Survey lays out an overall annual picture of the Arab region’s state of economic and social development, as well as focusing on specific burning issues which pertain to economic and social developments in Arab countries.

The Survey lays out an overall annual picture of the Arab region’s state of economic and social development, as well as focusing on specific burning issues which pertain to economic and social developments in Arab countries.