Partnerships for the Goals
Powering Trade: Fine-tuning Trade Policy for Solar and Wind Energy Value Chains
Oct 2024
Working Paper
This paper examines current tariffs and other trade measures that either support or hinder the global expansion of solar and wind energy technologies. It highlights a persistent historical pattern in supply chains: developing countries remain mostly confined to exporting raw materials for solar and wind energy technologies, while importing manufactured renewable energy goods. These patterns restrict the development prospects of these countries and limit the collective ability of the world to harness the full potential of green energy technologies. The paper provides insights for trade policy improvements. For instance, lower tariffs on intermediate goods in Africa could foster the emergence or development of local green energy industries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, reducing border costs for intraregional trade could strengthen regional supply chains for renewable technologies. In Asia and Oceania, where trade defence measures are on the rise, implementing more effective trade remedy mechanisms could reduce recourse to trade defence duties.
Global Action is Needed to Advance Social Development Amidst Converging Crises
Oct 2024
Working Paper
The recent confluence of crises – the COVID-19 pandemic, violent conflicts, and climate change – has caused severe setbacks to central objectives of social development, such as poverty eradication, employment generation, inequality reduction, and building inclusive societies. People and societies in vulnerable situations have been hit the hardest by the converging crises. There are indications that shocks and crises are becoming ever more frequent, severe, and far-reaching – driven by the worsening effects of climate change, the growing probability of pandemics, growing geopolitical tensions, and increasingly dense global networks of trade, finance and transport. The effects of these converging crises can be severe and long-lasting, as they may exhaust public and private response capacities, cause economic scarring, and trap people in a cycle of poverty. The World Social Report (WSR 2024) estimates that the potential cumulative global economic output loss could be over $50 trillion in the 2020–2030 period, an indication of lost opportunities for social development. National social protection mechanisms can help to protect and further advance social development. These mechanisms, by limiting the adverse impacts of shocks and crises, especially on people in vulnerable situations, and by supporting short-term recovery, enhance longer-term resilience and foster sustainable and inclusive growth. Yet only 47 per cent of the global population and as few as 13 per cent in low-income countries, are estimated to have access to at least one social protection benefit. At the same time, converging crises may increase the cost of providing adequate and universal social protection, while also depleting public financial resources. As a result, many developing countries, including most low- and lower-middle-income countries, would find it difficult to achieve universal social protection by 2030 without additional international support
Multi-speed Growth is Back, With a Fiscal Blind Spot
Jul 2024
Working Paper
Multi-speed growth is back: 68 developing economies are currently growing at more than 4%, 47 at between 2 and 4% and 37 at less than 2%. The projected effects on poverty are uneven. Despite a downward trend since the pandemic in 2020, an estimated 7.7% of the global population could still be living in extreme poverty in 2024, just below the pre-pandemic level of 8%, and could decrease slightly to 7.2% by 2026. Looking forward, high levels of debt and weak development financing are expected to make uneven patterns of growth and poverty more divergent. In 49 countries, net interest payments as a share of revenue are now higher than 10%, up from 27 countries a decade ago, and in 10 countries higher than 25%. Worst affected is the world’s poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 45% of countries with interest payments in excess of 10% and 50% of countries with payments higher than 25%. Indicators of debt distress and default risk remain elevated. For developing economies with a sovereign credit rating, 61% percent (54 countries) have a rating below ‘non-investment grade’ and for countries with debt assessed under the LIC-DSF 51% percent (34 countries) are rated either in or at high risk of debt distress.
Net Wealth Taxes: How They Can Help Fight Inequality and Fund Sustainable Development
Dec 2024
Working Paper
Taxing wealth can take many forms; policy makers should carefully analyse options best suited to the existing tax system and the social-economic situation in their country. Ensuring effective taxation of wealth is a tool to address inequality, increase progressivity in the tax system, and raise domestic revenues to finance sustainable development. Net wealth taxes are gaining support, fuelled by the view that all individuals and corporations must pay their fair share of taxes. Investments in technological progress and automation of tax administrations, coupled with third-party reporting, international tax cooperation in the form of exchange of information and exit taxes, are crucial elements that could help countries to efficiently and effectively levy a net wealth tax.
Leveraging Strategic Foresight to Mitigate Artificial Intelligence (AI) Risk in Public Sectors
May 2025
Working Paper
The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024 warns that with less than one-fifth of targets on track, the world is failing to deliver on the promise of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds significant potential to accelerate the implementation of the SDGs by enhancing efficiency, fostering innovation, and improving decision-making across various sectors such as health, education, climate change, water, food, and energy. However, the unpredictable trajectory of AI development, coupled with its complex ethical, social, and political ramifications, necessitates a structured approach to anticipate and navigate its potential impacts. Strategic foresight exercises are essential in this context, enabling stakeholders to proactively identify and address emerging challenges and opportunities associated with AI. By leveraging collective intelligence and scenario planning, strategic foresight exercises can help ensure that AI technologies are developed and deployed responsibly, thereby increasing the likelihood of their positive contribution to sustainable and inclusive growth. Such forward-thinking methodologies are critical to mitigating risks and harnessing AIs transformative power in advancing the SDGs. This policy brief explains how strategic foresight can inform and guide public sectors in anticipating unexpected challenges and effectively harnessing AI technologies.
United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impact on the Arab Region
Jun 2025
Working Paper
This policy brief examines recent United States tariff shockwaves and the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting both direct impacts – particularly on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – and indirect spillovers through weaker demand from China and the European Union, and falling oil prices. Preliminary estimates for 2025 suggest moderate macroeconomic effects for the Agadir Agreement countries and limited impacts for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The brief underscores rising fiscal vulnerabilities and calls upon Arab States to strengthen regional integration, diversify trade and engage with the United States to enhance economic resilience.
Leaving No One Behind (LNOB): A Pathway that Delivers
Oct 2025
Working Paper
Amid uneven SDG progress and overlapping crises, efforts to deliver sustainable development that leaves no one behind continue to face persistent, intersecting barriers—even where commitments are strong. Consider, for example, the experience of a woman with a disability in an informal settlement: she cannot afford assistive devices, faces inaccessible infrastructure, encounters weak enforcement of rules, experiences hiring bias and may struggle to evacuate during an earthquake. This scenario shows how multiple barriers converge to deepen exclusion. This policy brief highlights five dimensions where exclusion is often observed—affordability, access, governance, participation and external shocks, among others—and illustrates how governments are responding in each through policy examples and observations. Insights are drawn from 2024–2025 country implementation updates from thirteen countries that announced commitments at the 2023 SDG Summit, as well as 2025 Voluntary National Review (VNR) reports from three additional countries3 with such commitments. The analysis is intended to inform global policy discussions, including, as relevant, the World Social Summit under the title Second World Summit for Social Development.
Breaking the Cycle: Addressing Inequalities in Child Survival to Promote Inclusive Social Development
Oct 2025
Working Paper
Thirty years ago, Member States gathered at the first World Summit for Social Development recognized that good health is both a consequence and a driver of social development and committed to reducing mortality rates among children under age 5. Since then, levels of child mortality have fallen significantly (United Nations, 2024). Yet, as the world prepares for the Second World Summit for Social Development in November 2025, profound disparities in child health and survival persist within and among countries, making it difficult for those furthest behind to break out of mutually rein-forcing cycles of poor health, poverty and social exclusion. This policy brief explores disparities in child mortality within and among countries and provides a series of recommendations aimed at ending preventable child deaths and reducing inequalities in child survival in different contexts.
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