No Poverty

The challenges that we face can be addressed only through stronger international cooperation. The Summit of the Future in 2024 is an opportunity to agree on multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow, strengthening global governance for both present and future generations. The present policy brief aims to elaborate on the proposal on the Emergency Platform to respond to complex global shocks, incorporating feedback received from Member States and other relevant partners. The Emergency Platform would not be a standing body or entity but a set of protocols that could be activated when needed. The brief outlines some of the characteristics of global shocks in the twenty-first century and some of the risks we could face in the future. It highlights how such shocks have the potential to undermine progress to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and 2030 Agenda, as well as human rights and gender equality. It reflects on lessons from the response to recent complex global shocks and sets out proposals to strengthen the international response to a complex, global shock through the convening of an Emergency Platform. Finally, it offers recommendations on how these proposals could be taken forward in the Pact for the Future. This is the second of the Summit of the Future Policy Briefs.

The UN’s SDG Stimulus Plan, which calls for additional liquidity, effective debt restructuring and the expansion of development financing, has the potential to free up significant fiscal space in developing economies. For 52 most debt-vulnerable economies, a 30 percent haircut of 2021 public external debt stock could lower debt service payments in 2022–2029 by between US$44 billion and $148 billion, depending on the participation of various creditor classes. For all developing economies, a 40 percent “refinancing” of their 2021 bond debt stock to average official creditor rates could amount to a $121 billion savings on interest payments in 2022–2029. Against the backdrop of growing economic and geopolitical fragmentation, this policy brief describes building blocks for exiting the crisis.

As the rate of new COVID-19 cases accelerates across the developing world, it exposes the potentially devastating costs of job losses and income reversals. Unconditional emergency cash transfers can mitigate the worst immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis on poor and near-poor households that do not currently have access to social assistance or insurance protection. This paper provides estimates for a Temporary Basic Income (TBI), a minimum guaranteed income above the poverty line, for vulnerable people in 132 developing countries.

This paper reconstructs the full welfare distributions from household surveys of 160 countries, covering 96.5 percent of the global population, to estimate the pandemic-induced increases in global poverty and provide information on the potential short-term effects of income-support programmes on mitigating such increases. Crucially, the analysis performs a large-scale simulation by combining the welfare distributions with the database of social protection measures of Gentilini et al. (2021) and estimates such effects from 72 actual income-support programmes planned or implemented across 41 countries.

As in many developing countries, in Mali, generating reliable and up-to date data beyond national averages to uncover geographic and other inequalities is one of the major challenges for rigorous monitoring of progress towards achieving the SDGs. Mali’s National Observatory for Human Development has set up a mechanism to generate socio-economic and poverty metrics for 703 municipalities based on the small area estimation procedure. The generated metrics shed light on poverty inequalities among municipalities while providing information on SDG acceleration integrated policies. This experience of data processing shows that existing data at the supra-communal level can be used to infer useful indicators that uncover the most deprived people, inform local development policies and offer reliable inputs for predictive modelling for anticipatory governance.

This paper aims to draw attention to the need to create an innovative measure that allows us to devel into women's poverty and its specificities. Only by performing an accurate analysis of women’s multidimensional poverty will it be possible to respond to their specific needs, identify the bottlenecks that prevent them from escaping poverty and make policy recommendations that are gender-sensitive in that regard. This paper presents a proposal for a Multidimensional Poverty Index with a focus on women in Latin America and the Caribbean, including results for 10 countries: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Dominican Republic, and Uruguay. Estimates show that 28 percent of women in the analysed countries are multidimensionally poor. Uruguay and Chile exhibit the lowest incidence, below 10 percent, while in Honduras and El Salvador, more than 62 percent of adult women are multidimensionally poor.

En el presente informe de políticas se incluyen sugerencias de medidas prácticas para cumplir el compromiso que contrajimos hace tiempo de satisfacer las demandas del presente de forma que se salvaguarden los intereses de las generaciones futuras y se preserve su capacidad de disfrutar efectivamente de todos los derechos humanos. Entre ellas están: un enviado que sea la voz a nivel global de las generaciones futuras; un mejor uso de la previsión, la ciencia y los datos; una declaración para definir y concretar nuestros deberes para con las generaciones futuras; y un foro intergubernamental específico para avanzar en la aplicación de la declaración y compartir las mejores prácticas. Estas sugerencias se basan en el informe “Nuestra Agenda Común” y en posteriores consultas intergubernamentales y con múltiples partes interesadas, reflejadas en el documento sobre los elementos de una declaración para las generaciones futuras, elaborado por las Misiones Permanentes ante las Naciones Unidas de Fiji y los Países Bajos. El presente informe responde a las cuestiones planteadas por los Estados Miembros durante las consultas, entre ellas cómo definir el término generaciones futuras, cómo equilibrar nuestro compromiso con ellas con nuestros deberes para con las generaciones presentes, cómo hacen avanzar las propuestas nuestros objetivos actuales de desarrollo sostenible, género y derechos humanos, y qué resultados se recomiendan para la Cumbre del Futuro sobre esta cuestión.

本政策简报旨在阐述关于应急平台的提案， 以应对复杂的全球冲击，同时考虑到会员国和其他相关伙伴的反馈意见。应急平台不是一个常设机构或实体，而是一套可在需要时启动的协议。简报概述了二十一世纪全球冲击的一些特点以及我们今后可能面临的一些风险。简报强调了此类冲击如何有可能破坏实现可持续发展目标和《2030 年议程》以及人权和性别平等的进展。简报回顾了应对最近发生的复杂全球冲击的经验教训，并提出了通过召集紧急平台加强对复杂全球冲击的国际应对的建议。最后，简报就如何在《未来公约》中推进这些提议提出了建议。

La présente note d’orientation vise à développer la proposition relative à la Plateforme d’urgence, qui concerne les mesures à prendre face à des chocs mondiaux complexes; elle tient compte des commentaires reçus des États Membres et d’autres partenaires concernés. La Plateforme d’urgence ne serait pas un organe ou une entité permanente, mais un ensemble de protocoles qui pourraient être activés en cas de besoin. Je décris dans la présente note certaines des caractéristiques des chocs mondiaux que le XXIe siècle a connus et certains des risques auxquels nous pourrions être exposés à l’avenir. J’y mets en évidence la façon dont de tels chocs pourraient compromettre les progrès accomplis dans la réalisation des objectifs de développement durable et du Programme de développement durable à l’horizon 2030, ainsi que des droits humains et de l’égalité des genres, compte tenu des enseignements tirés de l’action menée face aux chocs mondiaux complexes qui se sont produits récemment. J’y présente aussi des propositions qui visent à améliorer la riposte internationale face à un choc mondial complexe grâce à la convocation d’une Plateforme d’urgence. Enfin, je formule des recommandations sur la manière dont ces propositions pourraient être mises en oeuvre dans le cadre du Pacte pour l’avenir.

本政策简报提议采取一些实际步骤，以履行我们的长期承诺，在满足当前需要的同时，保障子孙后代的利益，并维护他们切实享受所有人权的能力。这些措施包括： (a) 设立在全球层面为子孙后代发声的特使； (b) 更好地利用预见、科学和数据； (c) 发表一项界定和具体说明我们对子孙后代的责任的宣言； (d) 设立一个专门的政府间论坛，以推动该宣言的落实工作并分享最佳做法。 这些提议是在《我们的共同议程》以及随后的政府间和多利益攸关方协商基础上提出的。协商成果反映在斐济和荷兰常驻联合国代表团编写的“子孙后代问题宣言要点文件”1当中。简报回应了会员国在协商期间提出的问题，包括如何定义子孙后代，如何平衡我们对子孙后代的承诺与我们对当代人的责任，各项提议如何推进我们在可持续发展、性别平等和人权方面的现有目标，以及建议未来峰会就此问题取得哪些成果。 这些提议依据一个简单的逻辑。我们为子孙后代所做的，也是我们需要为自己所做的，那就是要比现在更加认真地对待未来的挑战和机遇。我们知道，我们能够采取有远见的集体行动，恢复臭氧层的成功努力就是明证。另一方面，如果我们当初采取了更认真的行动，限制全球气温上升或投资于大流行病防范，我们今天本将更接近于实现可持续发展目标。满足当前的需要和考虑未来的需要这两者之间，并不存在取舍。相反， 如果不从长远角度考虑，解决当前的问题就无从谈起。2有意识地努力谋未来之计，将使所有世代获益。

La présente note d’orientation propose une série de mesures pratiques visant à honorer un engagement de longue date, celui de répondre aux exigences du présent tout en sauvegardant les intérêts des générations futures et en préservant leur capacité d’exercer effectivement leurs droits humains. Ces mesures sont les suivantes : la désignation d’un(e) envoyé(e) pour donner une voix aux générations futures à l’échelle mondiale; l’amélioration de l’utilisation de la prospective, de la science et des données; l’adoption d’une déclaration pour définir nos devoirs envers les générations futures et en donner une traduction concrète; et la création d’une instance intergouvernementale spéciale chargée de faire avancer la mise en oeuvre de la déclaration et de mettre en commun les meilleures pratiques. Ces propositions s’inscrivent dans le prolongement de Notre Programme commun et dans la continuité des consultations intergouvernementales et multipartites qui ont été menées par la suite et dont il est rendu compte dans la « Note relative aux éléments à faire figurer dans la déclaration sur les générations futures », établie par les Missions permanentes des Fidji et des Pays-Bas auprès de l’Organisation des Nations Unies. La présente note vise à apporter une réponse aux questions soulevées par les États Membres lors des consultations, notamment celles de savoir quelle définition donner à l’expression « générations futures », comment concilier nos engagements vis-à-vis des générations futures et nos devoirs envers les générations actuelles, en quoi les mesures proposées peuvent faire progresser la réalisation de nos objectifs actuels en matière de développement durable, de genre et de droits humains, et sur quoi devrait déboucher le Sommet de l’avenir en la matière.

Twenty-five developing economies, the highest number since 2000, spent over 20 percent of their government revenues in 2022 on total external debt servicing. The average low-income country spends about 2.3 times more on interest payments than on social assistance. Due to the economic shocks during 2020-2023, we project that 165 million people fell into poverty using the $3.65-a-day poverty line—the entirety of those living in low- and lower-middle-income economies. A pause in debt payments would allow developing economies weighed down by debt to mitigate some social effects of these shocks, using resources earmarked for debt servicing. This policy brief presents simulations that show that the annual cost of mitigating the additional 165 million poor would reach US$14.24 billion, or 0.009 percent of global GDP and a little less than 4 percent of total public external debt service in 2022—if the income losses among the already poor prior to the shocks are also included, the mitigation cost would reach US$107.11 billion, or 0.065 percent of the world’s GDP and around a fourth of total external public debt service.

In the three decades that preceded the Covid-19 pandemic, more than one billion people escaped extreme income poverty. As the health and economic upheavals brought on by Covid-19 and subsequent crises have made evident, however, progress towards poverty eradication is fragile. With only a few years remaining before the target date of 2030 for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a renewed commitment to accelerate progress towards poverty eradication. In 2025, the United Nations will convene the Second World Summit for Social Development to give momentum towards the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, with a focus on poverty eradication and the other two pillars of social development. The Summit should strengthen the international community’s resolve to end poverty everywhere between now and 2030. Helping people escape extreme poverty is the first step towards achieving SDG 1. However, growing evidence on the poverty trajectories of families shows that escapes from poverty are seldom a straightforward path. Many people lift themselves out of poverty but fall back into it when a shock hits. A sharper policy focus on preventing impoverishment is needed to sustain progress and avoid setbacks.

Converging crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, climate change and various conflicts, have become a defining challenge of our time. Crises that might have previously been contained within a specific geographic space are now propagated rapidly through globally interconnected systems and networks in areas such as economics, finance, the environment and health. This Policy Brief highlights the following: (a) converging crises have reversed and exposed the fragility of global SDG progress and imposed high costs on developing countries, (b) reducing inequality and poverty is critical to building resilience against the impact of shocks and crises, and (c) investment in the SDGs, particularly those that underpin social development, can help build resilience of developing countries to multiple crises, as seen in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impacts of crises on inequality and marginalization are more complex and layered in today’s interconnected world than they were in the past, often manifesting through exacerbation of various pre-existing vulnerabilities of disadvantaged groups. Recovery strategies and efforts to build resilience thus require more multidimensional lenses for addressing secondary impacts of shocks, particularly on the most vulnerable. This brief explores whether multidimensional approaches to addressing issues related to poverty and vulnerability are more helpful in crisis contexts. Towards that end, the brief analyzes primary data on beneficiaries of UNDP Bangladesh’s Livelihoods Improvement of Urban Poor Communities (LIUPC) project. The findings are expected to contribute to the conception, design and scaling-up of future initiatives and contextualized solutions to strengthen the resilience of urban poor communities in similar settings.

Extreme poverty has been rising in Mozambique for the past decade—the analysis in this Development Futures Series Working Paper suggests that this trend has been aggravated by the cost-of-living crisis induced by the onset of the war in Ukraine in early 2022. The authors of this working paper estimate that, compared to December 2021, 1 million additional Mozambicans lived in extreme poverty as of December 2022 due to the soaring food, energy and transport inflation, with 60% of these individuals being concentrated in urban areas. The analysis underscores the limited mitigation potential of tax measures, such as the reduction in Value Added Tax (VAT) implemented by the Mozambican government in December 2022. The analysis finds that alternative policies, such as cash transfers, have nearly three times greater mitigation potential. While this is a national analysis, this paper includes important policy implications for countries with significant shares of subsistence farmers, economies that have implemented or considered implementing a VAT reduction to mitigate income or consumption shocks, and countries facing compound shocks through the cost-of-living crisis, extreme weather events and armed conflict.

Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance expenditures, protect and invest in their people and pave the way to a better future. However, when public debt grows excessively or its costs outweigh its benefits, it becomes a heavy burden. This is precisely what is happening across the developing world today.

Building on the second Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report (2023), this policy brief offers a critical update on the state of multidimensional poverty in selected Arab countries. Drawing on recent survey data from three Arab middle-income countries, Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, and three least developed countries (LDCs), Comoros, Mauritania, and Yemen, the brief highlights nuanced and often persistent challenges. The brief reveals that while some progress has been made in certain areas, multidimensional poverty in several Arab countries, particularly LDCs, has remained alarmingly high or seen only marginal reductions over the past decade. It underscores an urgent need for policymakers to intensify efforts in key areas such as education, essential public services, and basic living conditions. This brief provides critical, data-driven insights for stakeholders to address the complex and varying challenges of multidimensional poverty, advocating for targeted interventions and sustained efforts to foster equitable development across the Arab region.

This policy brief examines recent United States tariff shockwaves and the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting both direct impacts – particularly on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – and indirect spillovers through weaker demand from China and the European Union, and falling oil prices. Preliminary estimates for 2025 suggest moderate macroeconomic effects for the Agadir Agreement countries and limited impacts for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The brief underscores rising fiscal vulnerabilities and calls upon Arab States to strengthen regional integration, diversify trade and engage with the United States to enhance economic resilience.