No Poverty

La présente note d’orientation propose une série de mesures pratiques visant à honorer un engagement de longue date, celui de répondre aux exigences du présent tout en sauvegardant les intérêts des générations futures et en préservant leur capacité d’exercer effectivement leurs droits humains. Ces mesures sont les suivantes : la désignation d’un(e) envoyé(e) pour donner une voix aux générations futures à l’échelle mondiale; l’amélioration de l’utilisation de la prospective, de la science et des données; l’adoption d’une déclaration pour définir nos devoirs envers les générations futures et en donner une traduction concrète; et la création d’une instance intergouvernementale spéciale chargée de faire avancer la mise en oeuvre de la déclaration et de mettre en commun les meilleures pratiques. Ces propositions s’inscrivent dans le prolongement de Notre Programme commun et dans la continuité des consultations intergouvernementales et multipartites qui ont été menées par la suite et dont il est rendu compte dans la « Note relative aux éléments à faire figurer dans la déclaration sur les générations futures », établie par les Missions permanentes des Fidji et des Pays-Bas auprès de l’Organisation des Nations Unies. La présente note vise à apporter une réponse aux questions soulevées par les États Membres lors des consultations, notamment celles de savoir quelle définition donner à l’expression « générations futures », comment concilier nos engagements vis-à-vis des générations futures et nos devoirs envers les générations actuelles, en quoi les mesures proposées peuvent faire progresser la réalisation de nos objectifs actuels en matière de développement durable, de genre et de droits humains, et sur quoi devrait déboucher le Sommet de l’avenir en la matière.

Twenty-five developing economies, the highest number since 2000, spent over 20 percent of their government revenues in 2022 on total external debt servicing. The average low-income country spends about 2.3 times more on interest payments than on social assistance. Due to the economic shocks during 2020-2023, we project that 165 million people fell into poverty using the $3.65-a-day poverty line—the entirety of those living in low- and lower-middle-income economies. A pause in debt payments would allow developing economies weighed down by debt to mitigate some social effects of these shocks, using resources earmarked for debt servicing. This policy brief presents simulations that show that the annual cost of mitigating the additional 165 million poor would reach US$14.24 billion, or 0.009 percent of global GDP and a little less than 4 percent of total public external debt service in 2022—if the income losses among the already poor prior to the shocks are also included, the mitigation cost would reach US$107.11 billion, or 0.065 percent of the world’s GDP and around a fourth of total external public debt service.

In the three decades that preceded the Covid-19 pandemic, more than one billion people escaped extreme income poverty. As the health and economic upheavals brought on by Covid-19 and subsequent crises have made evident, however, progress towards poverty eradication is fragile. With only a few years remaining before the target date of 2030 for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a renewed commitment to accelerate progress towards poverty eradication. In 2025, the United Nations will convene the Second World Summit for Social Development to give momentum towards the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, with a focus on poverty eradication and the other two pillars of social development. The Summit should strengthen the international community’s resolve to end poverty everywhere between now and 2030. Helping people escape extreme poverty is the first step towards achieving SDG 1. However, growing evidence on the poverty trajectories of families shows that escapes from poverty are seldom a straightforward path. Many people lift themselves out of poverty but fall back into it when a shock hits. A sharper policy focus on preventing impoverishment is needed to sustain progress and avoid setbacks.

Converging crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, climate change and various conflicts, have become a defining challenge of our time. Crises that might have previously been contained within a specific geographic space are now propagated rapidly through globally interconnected systems and networks in areas such as economics, finance, the environment and health. This Policy Brief highlights the following: (a) converging crises have reversed and exposed the fragility of global SDG progress and imposed high costs on developing countries, (b) reducing inequality and poverty is critical to building resilience against the impact of shocks and crises, and (c) investment in the SDGs, particularly those that underpin social development, can help build resilience of developing countries to multiple crises, as seen in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impacts of crises on inequality and marginalization are more complex and layered in today’s interconnected world than they were in the past, often manifesting through exacerbation of various pre-existing vulnerabilities of disadvantaged groups. Recovery strategies and efforts to build resilience thus require more multidimensional lenses for addressing secondary impacts of shocks, particularly on the most vulnerable. This brief explores whether multidimensional approaches to addressing issues related to poverty and vulnerability are more helpful in crisis contexts. Towards that end, the brief analyzes primary data on beneficiaries of UNDP Bangladesh’s Livelihoods Improvement of Urban Poor Communities (LIUPC) project. The findings are expected to contribute to the conception, design and scaling-up of future initiatives and contextualized solutions to strengthen the resilience of urban poor communities in similar settings.

Extreme poverty has been rising in Mozambique for the past decade—the analysis in this Development Futures Series Working Paper suggests that this trend has been aggravated by the cost-of-living crisis induced by the onset of the war in Ukraine in early 2022. The authors of this working paper estimate that, compared to December 2021, 1 million additional Mozambicans lived in extreme poverty as of December 2022 due to the soaring food, energy and transport inflation, with 60% of these individuals being concentrated in urban areas. The analysis underscores the limited mitigation potential of tax measures, such as the reduction in Value Added Tax (VAT) implemented by the Mozambican government in December 2022. The analysis finds that alternative policies, such as cash transfers, have nearly three times greater mitigation potential. While this is a national analysis, this paper includes important policy implications for countries with significant shares of subsistence farmers, economies that have implemented or considered implementing a VAT reduction to mitigate income or consumption shocks, and countries facing compound shocks through the cost-of-living crisis, extreme weather events and armed conflict.

Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance expenditures, protect and invest in their people and pave the way to a better future. However, when public debt grows excessively or its costs outweigh its benefits, it becomes a heavy burden. This is precisely what is happening across the developing world today.

Building on the second Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report (2023), this policy brief offers a critical update on the state of multidimensional poverty in selected Arab countries. Drawing on recent survey data from three Arab middle-income countries, Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, and three least developed countries (LDCs), Comoros, Mauritania, and Yemen, the brief highlights nuanced and often persistent challenges. The brief reveals that while some progress has been made in certain areas, multidimensional poverty in several Arab countries, particularly LDCs, has remained alarmingly high or seen only marginal reductions over the past decade. It underscores an urgent need for policymakers to intensify efforts in key areas such as education, essential public services, and basic living conditions. This brief provides critical, data-driven insights for stakeholders to address the complex and varying challenges of multidimensional poverty, advocating for targeted interventions and sustained efforts to foster equitable development across the Arab region.

This policy brief examines recent United States tariff shockwaves and the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting both direct impacts – particularly on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – and indirect spillovers through weaker demand from China and the European Union, and falling oil prices. Preliminary estimates for 2025 suggest moderate macroeconomic effects for the Agadir Agreement countries and limited impacts for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The brief underscores rising fiscal vulnerabilities and calls upon Arab States to strengthen regional integration, diversify trade and engage with the United States to enhance economic resilience.