Good Health and Well-Being

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the Philippine economy in unprecedented ways. The country suffered a 9.6 percent contraction of its GDP in 2020, the worst on record in the post-World War II period. With the second highest cases in Southeast Asia, the country continues to struggle to contain the disease and remains under various degrees of community quarantine. This policy brief examines the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic across Philippine households using non-traditional datasets, particularly market research data showing fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) spending and mobility data. The paper observes differences in pandemic restrictions and recovery across different geographical areas in the country and in the pace of recovery across households belonging to different socioeconomic groups.

Solidarity has been a hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic response in Paraguay. Many vulnerable communities have found ways to survive in the crisis context by mobilizing support from community and volunteer networks and civil society organizations, and also by accessing institutional forms of support, such as cash transfer programmes. How pervasive is collective action in vulnerable territories during the pandemic? Who engages in collective action, and to what end? And does it reduce vulnerability? This policy brief reports preliminary results of a survey on social capital in selected territories of Paraguay and its relationship with economic vulnerability during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data presented provide insights into how trust and social capital have enabled collective action in vulnerable territories of Paraguay during the pandemic. This evidence can inform policy debates on how to increase resiliency and reduce vulnerability and allow us to identify, design and evaluate interventions to increase access to formal and informal types of aid in vulnerable territories.

The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened the livelihoods of the most vulnerable households in developing countries. In response, several countries have launched income support programs (ISPs). We evaluated the likely impact of these programs on the weekly growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths across 62 developing countries between January and December of 2020. Event study results suggest that implementation of ISPs reduced the weekly growth rate of cases and deaths. A heterogeneity analysis found that ISPs seemed effective in reducing the growth of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 in middle-income countries and the growth rate of cases in low-income countries as well as those countries with high informality in the labor market. Difference-in-difference estimates using the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2020) estimation strategy indicated that ISPs decreased the COVID-19 case growth rate by 12.1 percentage points and the death growth rate by 22.9 percentage points.

The pandemic has progressed differently across the world. Using monthly data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities, we evaluate whether income inequality is an important factor in explaining cross-country differences in the spread and mortality of the virus. The results show that income inequality is positively correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases. Higher income inequality is associated with a more rapid spread of the virus and an increase in the number of cases, indirectly increasing mortality rates as well. Also, higher levels of inequality are associated with reduced effectiveness of social distancing measures in containing new infections. Thus, elevated inequalities place societies in a more vulnerable position to confront this pandemic, and more unequal countries would need more robust public responses to contain the spread of the virus.

This work develops a set of regimes that link structures of economic growth with those of social reproduction. These regimes are then linked to groups of countries organized by economic structure and level of development to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in gender inequality in the labour market. Social reproduction is defined in terms of the time and money it takes to produce, maintain and invest in the labour force, so it includes both paid and unpaid care work. The analytical emphasis is on how the distributions of production and reproduction among women, men, the state and capital determine investment and growth and how gender inequality is both cause and consequence of these relationships.

In 1994, the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo, ushered in a paradigm shift that would reshape how governments formulate and implement population policies. While recognizing the advantages of population stabilization for sustainable development, the ICPD Programme of Action, adopted by 179 United Nations Member States, affirmed that national policies pertaining to population and development must have at their core a fundamental respect for human rights. The following year in 1995, at the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing, 189 countries adopted the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. Within their broad scopes, the Cairo Programme of Action and the Beijing Platform for Action emphasized the importance of family planning for fulfilling the basic right of individuals and couples to decide the number, spacing and timing of their children and to have the information and means to do so, and the right to achieve the highest attainable standard of sexual and reproductive health. The two documents highlighted that ensuring universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services, including for family planning, information and education, is critical for protecting the rights and futures of girls and women. Within the broad picture of progress and stalls in sexual and reproductive health, this policy brief will examine in more depth the changes in adolescent birth rates and family planning in the context of global fertility decline over the last 30 years. It will highlight inequalities in those changes and discuss the challenges of living up to the commitments made at Cairo and Beijing moving forward.

COVID-19 threw Moldovan governance into chaotic domain (in Cynefin terms), where cause and effect are unclear, events are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response and Government has to act and sense before responding. The Republic of Moldova used thick data (micro-narratives) to unveil the hidden facets of COVID’s impact. Using thick data helped to provide a more nuanced response to challenges, for instance by better shaping communication strategy. Thick data should not be considered as contradicting big data, but rather as complimentary and enriching sensemaking. Empowering people to reflect on their assessed anecdotal evidence helps to enrich insights.

The COVID-19 crisis is evolving into a long-term development emergency, the scale of which is unprecedented in modern times. Among the root causes of the crisis is humanity’s breaching of the planet’s ecological boundaries. COVID-19 is likely a zoonotic disease, a disease passed from animals to humans. As pressures on natural ecosystems and wildlife intensify, channels of viral outbreak have accelerated in recent years, as also seen in outbreaks of other zoonotic diseases such as Ebola, SARS and MERS in recent years. More than ever, the ability to prevent outbreaks depends on our ability to maintain healthy ecosystems and avoid the blurring of ecological boundaries.

Over the next decades, most small island developing States (SIDS) are projected to experience a rapid increase in both the share and the number of people aged 65 years or over. In half of the SIDS, the size of the older population will double between now and 2055. All SIDS, even those with youthful populations today, should embrace forward-looking strategies to capitalize on the opportunities that population ageing will bring, while also addressing the context-specific challenges it may pose.

The book “When Juncture Meets Structure: Vignettes on Development and the COVID-19 Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean” is based on the “Graph for Thought” series, and brings together 30 data-driven vignettes to tell the story of structural development challenges in the LAC region and how this is changing in the wake of the pandemic.