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Interrelationships between demographic factors, development and the environment in the ESCAP region
It will take a long time to achieve minimum environmental standards required for maintaining human health.
How serious is ageing in Sri Lanka and what can be done about it?
Structural changes necessitated by population ageing may demand a greater share of expenditure from the Government
Factors affecting delay in obtaining an abortion among unmarried young women in three cities in China
The demography of Kiribati: Estimates from the 1985 census
Since the Second World War censuses have been held in the Republic of Kiribati in 1947 1963 1968 1973 1978 1985 and 1990. This paper presents an analysis of the 1985 census and compares projections made on the basis of that analysis with the 1990 enumeration. Comparison is made throughout with the estimates derived from 1978 census.
Role of government family planning workers and health centres as determinants of contraceptive use in Bangladesh
The use of contraceptives in Bangladesh has risen steadily over the last two decades. In 1975 the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was 8 per cent and rose to 40 per cent in 1991. The country experienced the steepest increase in CPR between 1975 and 1985: the rates rose from 8 per cent to 25 per cent a more than three-fold increase in only 10 years.
Unintended pregnancies and prenatal, delivery and postnatal outcomes among young women in the Philippines
Unintended Pregnancy among Iranian Young Women: Incidence, Correlates and Outcomes
Ethnicity and infant mortality in Malaysia
By enlisting the aid of the traditional authorities attending deliveries important health messages for new mothers might be reinforced.
Ethnic mosaic of modern China: An analysis of fertility and mortality data for the twelve largest ethnic minorities
There are major variations in fertility and mortality patterns among the ethnic populations in China mainly owing to different stages of economic development.
Ageing, activities of daily living disabilities and the need for public health initiatives: Some evidence from a household survey in Delhi
India is fast becoming a graying society as a result of its upcoming prospect to achieve an accelerating growth in the size of its ageing population. Two causal factors are: (a) a varying but persistent fertility-mortality decline across the country and (b) added lifespan with increased survival chances especially at the later end of the life cycle. Those changes and in particular the added life years have however been mired in the high prevalence of chronic diseases affecting over half of the country’s population aged 60 and over (NSS 52nd round 1995-1996). Such a situation - coupled with large-scale poverty and the poor financial status of the older persons (Alam 2004) - is likely to pose many serious issues for the country. One of the more critical may indeed be the higher incidence of frailty senescence functional incapacitation and dependence of older men and women in activities of daily living (ADL) – raising questions for the caregivers especially the families. With large-scale migration declining family size and growing participation of women in economic activities this traditional support mechanism is apparently on the verge of losing its sheen. Somewhat inexplicably this aspect has been almost completely missed in the analytical literature on health and ageing in India. The analysis presented below is therefore a modest attempt to fill some of this void by looking into the following.
Differential mortality among Pacific island countries and territories
Pacific island countries and territories are at different stages of demograhic transition with some populations still experiencing relatively high mortality and fertility and others manifesting lower mortality and declining fertility. These countries are also passing through the epidemiological transition with a progressive increase in proportionate mortality from chronic diseases and widening sex differentials in death rates (Taylor Lewis and Sladden1991; Taylor Lewis and Levy 1989).
Bangladeshi migrant workers in Singapore: The view from inside
Since the end of the Second World War the international migration of labour has grown in volume and changed in character (Castles and Miller 1998). It has also been observed that there are two main phases in post-Second World War migration (Castles and Miller 1998 p.67). In the first phase from 1945 to the early 1970s large numbers of migrant workers were drawn from less developed countries into the fast-expanding industrial areas of Western Europe and North America. However the organized recruitment of migrant workers by industrialized countries ended in the early 1970s owing mainly to the fundamental restructuring of the global economy and the politicization of migration (Castles 2001). The second phase began in Asia in the mid-1970s. The phenomenal rise in oil prices since the end of 1973 generated a huge demand for temporary migrants in Middle Eastern countries. This massive demand for temporary migrants resulted in an enormous flow of labour to oil-rich Arab countries. In addition since the mid-1980s the demand for temporary migrants grew in the prosperous countries of East and South-East Asia and a large number of migrants migrated to these countries for temporary employment. Bangladeshi migrants are found in both destinations.
Fertility transition and population ageing in the Asian and Pacific region
During the past half century the world has witnessed a remarkable decline in total fertility rates (TFRs) from a high level of 5 children per woman in the period 1950-1955 to 2.8 children per woman in the period 2000-2005. While the fertility transition was already well under way in Europe North America and Australia and New Zealand during the period 1950-1955 TFR was very high in the Asian region at about 6 children per woman. Fertility continued to decline in Europe from a TFR of 2.7 in the period 1950-1955 to replacement level (2.1 children per woman) during the 1970s. TFR is now far below replacement level in Europe.
“Successful Ageing for Singapore”?: Financial (in)security of elderly persons
Many developed countries across the world have populations that are rapidly ageing. In East and South-East Asia Singapore together with Japan the Republic of Korea and Thailand has the fastest growing 65 years and older population (Westley 1998: 1; Gubhaju 2003: 3). While Japan has doubled its proportion of elderly persons from 10 to 20 per cent over 28 years Singapore will reach this demographic leap in 17 years. In 2003 7.6 per cent of the Singapore population was over 65 years of age (Ministry of Community Development and Sports (MCDS)** 2004a). Owing to improved health care health insurance and socio-economic conditions life expectancy has increased in Singapore with large numbers of people from the pre-war baby boom era surviving into their 60s and forming the country’s growing elderly population. According to estimates for 2004 life expectancy at birth for men stands at 76.9 of age and for females at 80.9 (Department of Statistics 2004). As such demographers have attested to Singapore having the fastest ageing population in the world (Ogawa 2003: 95-96; Mehta and Vasoo 2001: 186; ESCAP 2002); it has been projected that its ageing population is growing at an unprecedented rate of 3.7 per cent annually (MCDS 2004b) with the oldest-old cohort (aged 85 and above) growing the fastest (Chan 2001: 3).
Dramatic fertility transition in Mongolia and its determinants: The demise of the pronatalist state
The move from a centrally controlled economy to a market-driven economy has had strong political implications for family planning and fertility in Mongolia. Under socialist rule Mongolia had a strong pronatalist population policy under which those families having children were provided with generous benefits. The changes made to these policies have had a considerable impact on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. In the mid-1970s the country started to experience a dramatic decrease in the level of fertility which intensified when the country moved towards a market economy. The country experienced a drop in its total fertility rate (TFR) from 7.2 children per woman (of reproductive age) in 1975 to about 3 children in 1995 and it has remained constant at about 2.3 children since that time. Relatively few studies have been carried out on fertility changes in Mongolia with explanations about their causes primarily owing to a lack of data sources.
Antenatal care service availability and utilization in rural viet nam
Studies of determinants of reproductive health service utilization-maternal health services in particular-in developing countries have traditionally focused on individual-level factors. More recently policymakers programme managers and researchers have become interested in the influence of the quality of health-care services on service utilization. The availability of survey data that include information on individuals as well as the community and service environment allows researchers to examine the impact that of community-level factors including the availability of and accessibility to service providers have on utilization.
Low fertility in China: Trends, policy and impact
China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion (Zhuang and Zhang 2003) while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB) 2006).1 China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports China’s total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4 (NSB 2003). The rapid changes occurring in China’s population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing gender equality sex ratio at birth and labour supply.
Population ageing and labour supply prospects in China from 2005 to 2050
Increased life expectancy and rapid fertility decline since the 1970s have combined to create a very rapid rate of population ageing in China. These demographic developments are expected to result in an ageing workforce and a significant slow-down in the growth of the working-age population. According to the United Nations medium variant population projection the size of the working age population will increase only slightly over the next 10 years before beginning to shrink soon after 2020. Furthermore since the participation rate of the elderly population is much lower than that of the prime-age labour force ageing of the workforce will reduce the aggregate labour force participation rate (ALFPR).
The emergence of low fertility as a policy issue
In the 1960s demographers projected that the world’s population would reach 16 billion people by 2050 if the then very high fertility rates in most countries were not brought under control. Today the projected population in 2050 is around 9 billion. This reduction of the world’s population by 7 billion people from what might have been is one of the most remarkable but least heralded achievements of humankind. Most of the success in numerical terms can be attributed to falls in birth rates in Asian countries. In China alone if fertility had remained at its late 1970s relatively low level of 2.6 births per woman the Chinese population in 2050 would be 1 billion more than is now projected.