Decent Work and Economic Growth

The Holistic Productive Capacities Development Programme for Kenya (Kenya Programme) is designed to accelerate the implementation of the Kenya Vision 2030 and the Medium-term Plan 2022-2027 (The Plan) and lay the foundation for the country’s successor evelopment agenda beyond 2030.

The publication consists of two parts. Following the Introduction which provides the conceptual background and a comprehensive assessment of the recent performance of Kenya’s economy and development is Part I – the National Productive Capacities Gap Assessment. The NPCGA of Kenya examines the state of the country’s national productive capacities and binding constraints to its structural transformation economic diversification and overall sustainable development. It uses the Productive Capacities Index (PCI) which relies on eight components – Natural Capital Human Capital Transport Energy ICT Institutions Private Sector and Structural Change – to measure gaps in productive capacities. It then proposes specific tailored policy interventions to address these challenges. Part II – the Holistic Productive Capacities Development Programme (HPCDP) – provides details on how best to address the gaps and limitations and key binding constraints to the country’s development through a comprehensive programme. The HPCDP is tailored to specific domestic circumstances comparative advantages and national institutional frameworks and provides strategic orientation and action-oriented step-by-step approaches to tackle these key binding constraints. It is designed to address Kenya’s deep-rooted development challenges as articulated in the NPCGA by moving away from the practice of short-term sectoral and fragmented project-based interventions towards long-term integrated and programme-based approaches to development.

The concept of productive capacities was developed by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2006 and is broadly defined as the productive resources entrepreneurial capabilities and production linkages that together determine a country’s ability to produce goods and services that will help it grow and develop (UNCTAD 2006).

Productive Capacities Development: Challenges and Opportunities – The Case of Kenya which comprises the National Productive Capacities Gap Assessment of Kenya and the Holistic Productive Capacities Development Programme for Kenya was prepared under the overall guidance of Paul Akiwumi Director Division for Africa Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes of UNCTAD by a team led by Mussie Delelegn Acting Head Productive Capacities and Sustainable Development Branch which included Andrzej Bolesta Stefanie Garry and Johanna Silvander and supported by Lisa Borgatti. Sonia Bouali and Abdirizak Musa (UNCTAD consultants) and Huidi Feng (Intern) provided support.

Compared with previous technological waves AI can perform cognitive tasks and impact a far wider range of activities conceivably affecting 40 per cent of global employment transforming production processes and business operations.

Frontier technologies in particular AI bring about profound ramifications in the way the economy and societies work. This disruptive change coupled with the accelerating pace at which new technologies emerge and the global dimension reached by their diffusion and effects make policymakers struggle to navigate and design responsive Science Technology and Innovation (STI) policies. The TIR2025 report will analyze especially from the perspective of developing countries the socio-economic implications of the technological shift lead by frontier technologies with a focus on AI. The report will discuss and draw implications on AI policies as well as the international actions needed to guarantee that technological progress will benefit all.

Within the UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics the Technology and Innovation Policy Research Section carries out policy-oriented analytical work on the impact of innovation and new and emerging technologies on sustainable development with a particular focus on the opportunities and challenges for developing countries.

Frontier technologies particularly artificial intelligence are reshaping the functioning of economies and societies.

Frontier technologies are advancing rapidly with a market size projected to grow sixfold by 2033 to $16.4 trillion.