Economic and Social Development
The future of global trade
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a contraction in international trade in 2020 as widespread lockdowns triggered a collapse in demand and significant disruptions to global production networks. As global economic activity recovers global trade activity will improve but until 2022 it is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Beyond these short-term dynamics the pandemic shock is likely to accelerate ongoing structural trends-including the evolving configuration of global value chains (GVCs) the rise of the digital economy and the increasingly significant role of trade in services-which are shaping the future of the global trade landscape. In addition the rules-based multilateral trading system is facing unprecedented challenges amid ongoing disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and rising protectionism in parts of the world.
Executive summary
A once-in-a-century crisis—a Great Disruption unleashed by a viral pandemic—hit the world economy in 2020. The pandemic spread like a forest fire reaching every corner of the world infecting more than 90 million and killing close to 2 million people worldwide. For several months uncertainties and panic paralysed most economic activities in both developed and developing economies. Trade and tourism came to a grinding halt while job and output losses exceeded levels seen in any previous crisis. In a matter of months the number of people living in poverty increased sharply while income and wealth inequality trended towards new highs.
Acknowledgements
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021 is a report produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in partnership with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA).
Regional developments and outlook
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021
Jan 2021This is the United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy providing global and regional economic outlook for 2020 and 2021. A once-in-a-century crisis—a Great Disruption unleashed by a viral pandemic—hit the world economy in 2020. The pandemic spread like a forest fire reaching every corner of the world infecting more than 90 million and killing close to 2 million people worldwide. For several months uncertainties and panic paralysed most economic activities in both developed and developing economies. Trade and tourism came to a grinding halt while job and output losses exceeded levels seen in any previous crisis. In a matter of months the number of people living in poverty increased sharply while income and wealth inequality trended towards new highs. Governments around the world responded rapidly—and boldly—to stem the health and economic contagion of the crisis. Fiscal and monetary stimulus packages were quickly rolled out to save the economy. The crisis responses however entailed difficult choices between saving lives and saving livelihoods between speed of delivery and efficiency and between short-term costs and long-term impacts. Limited fiscal space and high levels of public debt constrained the ability of many developing countries to roll out sufficiently large stimulus packages. This report was produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs the five United Nations regional commissions the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development with contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization and other intergovernmental agencies.
Building nature-based human development
As this chapter argues: a lot. It makes the case for nature-based human development and for the cumulative impacts that local initiatives can have at global levels. It highlights the contributions indigenous communities around the world are making every day to protect the planet.
Towards a new generation of human development metrics for the Anthropocene
In line with a central theme of the report there is no one-size-fits-all tool or metric. Instead this chapter introduces and explores a suite of possibilities including an experimental Planetary pressuresadjusted Human Development Index.
Unprecedented—the scope, scale and speed of human pressures on the planet
The Anthropocene is ushering in new sets of complex interconnected and universal predicaments. Social and ecological systems are ever more tightly coupled within which inequalities form dangerous feedback loops. Systems thinking is in siloed thinking out.
Overview
We are at an unprecedented moment in the history of humankind and in the history of our planet. Warning lights—for our societies and the planet—are flashing red. They have been for some time as we well know. The Covid-19 pandemic is the latest harrowing consequence of imbalances writ large. Scientists have long warned that unfamiliar pathogens will emerge more frequently from interactions among humans livestock and wildlife interactions that have steadily increased in scale and intensity ultimately squeezing local ecosystems so hard that deadly viruses spill out. The novel coronavirus may be the latest to do so and unless we relax our grip on nature it will not be the last.
Human Development Report 2020
Dec 2020The 30th Anniversary 2020 Human Development Report is the latest in the series of global Human Development Reports published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) since 1990 as independent and analytically and empirically grounded discussions of major development issues trends and policies. This report offers a thought-provoking necessary alternative to paralysis in the face of alarming planetary change. Its release comes as the COVID-19 (coronarvirus) pandemic simultaneously offers a glimpse of what a ‘new normal’ could hold and opens up the opportunity for humanity to change course. The report also sets out new metrics of human development to guide us including a new experimental Planetary pressures-adjusted Human Development Index.
Empowering people, unleashing transformation
Social norms are powerful. They can also be harmful to the planet and to people especially to those with less power.
Empowering people for equity, innovation and stewardship of nature
This chapter argues that we can do so by enhancing equity fostering innovation and instilling a sense of stewardship of the planet.
Charting human development in the Anthropocene
We are entering a new geologic age: the Anthropocene. The age of humans.