Population and Demography
World Population Ageing 2023
Population ageing is a global phenomenon an inevitable consequence of the demographic transition that is affecting all countries of the world. The report will examine changing population age structures in developing countries with relatively high levels of fertility (at least 4 births per women) with a focus on LDCs in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. It will also briefly discuss the opportunities and challenges that these countries face in benefitting from the “demographic dividend” – the potential boost in the rate of economic growth per capita during the period when the working-age population grows faster than the total population. The analysis will examine the implications of selected projection scenarios from the World Population Prospects 2022 (WPP22) for trends in the age structure population growth and demographic dividends in LDCs. Most Asian LDCs are approaching the end of the demographic transition from high to low levels of mortality and fertility whereas most African LDCs are in the early stages of this transition which is expected to unfold gradually over the course of the present century. The report will feature case studies of how this gradual shift towards older population age structures may affect the realization of the demographic dividend in different contexts. These case studies (two countries from Asia and two from sub-Saharan Africa) will include a review of the respective demographic economic social cultural and historical contexts to assess the challenges and opportunities in anticipating and preparing for the future ageing of the population in each country. Lessons learnt and best practices derived from experience of countries at different stages of the demographic transition will provide the basis for policy recommendations for Governments of LDCs to support sustainable development social inclusion and adaptation to ageing societies taking advantage of the window of opportunity created by the temporary increase in the relative size of the working-age population.
Introduction
Population ageing in least developed countries (LDCs) presents unique challenges and opportunities. All LDCs have been later in entering the demographic transition – a transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality – than other countries and are also progressing through the transition more slowly while most of which are experiencing persistently high fertility and rapid population growth. Like the rest of the world most LDCs are experiencing population ageing albeit at a slower pace and at lower levels than other countries.
Lessons learned and best practices: The demographic dividend and population ageing in LDCs
While some Asia-Pacific LDCs are approaching or have entered the late stage of the demographic transition the majority of LDCs in sub-Saharan Africa are still in the early stages of the transition. The major demographic challenges facing these countries include persistently high levels of fertility and rapid population growth. As a result Governments are anticipating tremendous challenges and considerable pressures to accommodate their rapidly expanding school-age and working-age populations.
Preface
Population ageing is an inevitable outcome of the demographic transition — the historic shift from higher to lower levels of fertility and mortality that yields a period of rapid population increase and eventually an older population that is much larger as a share of the total. While more developed countries have completed or are well advanced in this transition less and least developed countries (LDCs) are predominantly in the early or middle stages when the older population is still small but starting to grow. Such countries can anticipate a continuing gradual increase in both the number and the share of older persons many of whom will require substantial care and support at some point in their lives. Unfortunately many LDCs are ill-prepared to offer the essential services and support that will eventually be needed by their ageing populations.
Executive summary
The United Nations created the category of the least developed countries (LDCs) in 1971 to mobilize international support for sustainable development in places facing the most severe structural impediments.
Country case studies: Angola, Rwanda and Bangladesh
This chapter includes country case studies on Angola Rwanda and Bangladesh which were selected based on their geographic location stage of the demographic transition – with Angola at an early stage Rwanda at a middle stage and Bangladesh at a late stage of the transition – challenges associated with population ageing and prospects to harness the demographic dividend. All three countries have made considerable strides in economic and social development since independence but all are still challenged by high poverty and inequality low levels of education limited health care systems and a need to diversify their economy. To finance their education social and health care systems the three countries often depend on ODA or on payments by their users. Further domestic budgets are strained by weak governance structures and foreign debt that reduces the resources available to advance education health and economic development. Multiple global crises from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food production and geo-political tensions at the global and regional levels will continue to dampen their prosperity.
Major trends in LDCs and the demographic dividend
In 1971 the United Nations created the category of the LDCs to identify developing countries which have low levels of income and face severe structural impediments to sustainable development. Being included in the LDC category enables countries to benefit from exclusive international support measures in the areas of trade development cooperation and participation in international organizations and processes (UN-OHRLLS 2023).
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Guangyu Zhang and Karoline Schmid. The authors wish to thank John Wilmoth Jorge Bravo Bela Hovy and Stephen Kisambira for their suggestions while reviewing the draft.
Population and Vital Statistics Report 2024
The Population and Vital Statistics Report presents data for countries or areas on population size (total male and female) from the latest available census estimated total population size for the latest available year and the number and rate of vital events (live births deaths and infant deaths) for the latest available year within the past 15 years. These data are presented as reported by national statistical authorities to the Demographic Yearbook of the Statistics Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
حالة سكان العالم لعام2023
The State of World Population report 2023 will discuss the milestone of 8 billion recently reached by the human population and the narratives surrounding population change. We will look in particular at discourses which put forward ideas of 'too many' or 'too few' people and at the harm this can cause women and girls whose reproductive choices are on the line.
أسرتناالبشرية قويةبأفرادهاالبالغ عددهمثمانية مليارات نسمة
تضمّ أسرتنا البشرية اليوم 8 مليارات نسمة، وهذه محطّةبارزة نحتفل بها. وتمثّل هذه المحطة أوجهَ التقدُّم التاريخيالتي أحرزتها البشرية في مجالات الطب والعلوم والصحةوالزراعة والتعليم. فالمزيد من النساء يبقَينَ على قيد الحياةبعد فترة الحمل ) WHO and others 2023 (، والمزيدمن المواليد يجتازون الأشهر الأولى الحرجة بعد الولادةWHO 2022( (. ومن المرجَّح أن يبلغ الأطفال سنَّ الرشدSmall Arms Survey( (، وأن يعيش الناسُ حياةً صحيّةلفترةٍ أطول.
موجز تنفيذي
المُنا هو عالمٌ مفعمٌ بالأمل والإمكانات حيث وصل أفرادالأسرة البشرية إلى عددٍ غير مسبوق. وهو عالمٌ نعيشُ فيهمعاً لفترةٍ أطول وبشكلٍ متوازِن، ونتمتَّع فيه عموماً بصحةٍأفضل وبحقوق وخيارات أوسع من أيِّ فترةٍ أخرى من تاريخالبشرية. وعالمنا هو أيضاً عالمٌ من المخاوف: فتوترات الحياةاليومية تتراكم بسرعة وسط الشكوك الاقتصادية والمسألةالوجودية لتغيّر المناخ واستمرار ارتفاع الوفيات بسبب جائحةكوفيد- 19 وويلات النزاعات الجارية.
حا لةالخياراتالإنجابية
نهاية المطاف، يجب ألا تشكّل المخاوف المتعلقةبالنمو السكاني أو تناقص عدد السكان ابتعاداً عنأولويةِ إعمال حقوق الإنسان لبناء عالمٍ عادلٍ ومستدام.إذ ينصُّ أحد حقوقنا الأساسية كأفرادٍ وأزواج علىاتّخاذ القرار بحرية ومسؤولية بشأن عدد الأطفالالذي نرغب به والفترة الفاصلة بين ولادةٍ طفلٍ وآخروتوقيت إنجاب كل طفل، وتلقّي المعلومات والحصولعلى الوسائل للقيام بذلك. يجب أن نتمكَّن من اتّخاذالقرارات المتعلقة بالإنجاب والصحة الجنسية بدونأي تمييز وإكراه وعنف. وينبغي أن تُقدَّم الخدماتالتي تساعد في تلبية أهداف الإنجاب والصحة الجنسيةبتكلفة ميسورة وأن تكون مقبولة ويمكن الوصول إليها وذات جودة ) .)United Nations 2014
عدد قليلجداً؟
في عام 2020 ، أبلغت وسائل الإعلام الدولية عن"انخفاض عالمي حاد في عدد الأطفال المولودين"Gallagher 2020( ( بالاستناد إلى دراسةأجراها معهد المقاييس الصحية والتقييم ) Institute)for Health Metrics and Evaluationونشرتها في مجلة "ذي لانسيت" ) )The LancetVollset and others 2020( (. وقد ظهر هذاالأمر في تقارير تحذيرية بشأن بلدان معيّنة، ولا سيَّمااثنين من أكبر البلدان، إذ ذكرت العناوين: "نقصٌ سكانيٌّكبير يضرب الصين: إنّ عدد السكان المتراجع في البلديُنذِر بفأل مروّع لباقي العالم" ) Dettmers andothers 2023 ( و"أمريكا تواجه الانهيار السكاني".)Cooper 2021(
مذكرة تقنية
تشمل الجداول الإحصائية الواردة في تقرير حالة سكان العالم 2023 مؤشرات لتتبع التقدم المحرز نحو تحقيق أهداف إطار العمل المعني بمتابعة برنامج عمل المؤتمر الدولي للسكان والتنمية، وأهداف التنميةالمستدامة في مجالات صحة الأم، وفرص الحصول على التعليم، والصحة الإنجابية والجنسية. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، تشمل هذه الجداول مجموعة متنوعة من المؤشِّرات الديمغرافية. وتدعم الجداول الإحصائيةتركيزَ صندوق الأمم المتحدة للسكان على التقدّم المحرَز والنتائج المحقّقة نحو بلوغ عالم يكون فيه كل حملٍ مرغوباً فيه وكل ولادةٍ أمنة، ويُحقِّق فيه جميع الشباب كامل إمكاناتهم.
تمهيد
ي تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 2022 ، تخطى عدد سكان العالمالثمانية مليارات نسمة. وبالنسبة إلى الكثير منّا، شكّل هذا العددمحطّةً بارزة ينبغي أن تحتفل بها الأسرة البشرية – فهو دليلٌعلى أنّ الأشخاص يعيشون لفترةٍ أطول ويتمتّعون بصحّةٍ أفضلوبحقوق وخيارات أوسع من أيِّ فترةٍ أخرى من تاريخ البشرية.